Egypt Registers Primary Surplus of $5.2 Billion

Monthly inflation rate in Egypt fell below zero for the first time since December 2021. (Reuters)
Monthly inflation rate in Egypt fell below zero for the first time since December 2021. (Reuters)
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Egypt Registers Primary Surplus of $5.2 Billion

Monthly inflation rate in Egypt fell below zero for the first time since December 2021. (Reuters)
Monthly inflation rate in Egypt fell below zero for the first time since December 2021. (Reuters)

Egypt registered a primary surplus of EGP98.5 billion ($5.23 billion) in the 2021/22 financial year to June 30, the country’s finance ministry said on Thursday.

The overall budget deficit stood at 6.1% of GDP, the statement added.

Meanwhile, Egypt’s annual urban consumer inflation slowed to 13.2% year-on-year in June from 13.5% in May, data from the state statistics agency CAPMAS showed on Thursday.

Month on month, headline inflation eased 0.1%, compared to a 1.1% increase in May.

The sharpest annual price increases were in the food and drink, recreation, and restaurant and hotel sectors, according to CAPMAS.

The agency attributed the decline to an 18.8% drop in vegetable prices, and a 10.5% drop in fruit prices. The broader food and beverage index recorded -2.2% yoy in the country as a whole, and -1.8% in the cities.

Egypt, one of the world’s biggest wheat importers, has been hit by the knock-on effect of global commodity price rises that accelerated with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, though the government has absorbed some of that impact.

It has been working to mitigate the war’s effect on the tourism sector, knowing that Russian and Ukrainian tourists represented almost one third of the total number of visitors.

The Central Bank targets an inflation rate between 5% and 9%, but it said when it raised interest rates by 200 basis points in May that it would temporarily tolerate inflation above that level.

The committee kept rates unchanged in June, and its next meeting is scheduled for Aug. 18.

“Prices are somewhat stable globally as oil prices saw a fall recently,” said Noaman Khalid, an economist at Arqaam Capital. “Also, there were no commodity price hike decisions from the Egyptian government.”

Inflation trends in coming months would depend on whether Egypt would need to allow commodity prices to rise under the terms of an expected deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), he said.



Gold Advances as Softer Core CPI Data Revives Fed Easing Hopes

A participant shows gold bars during the 21st edition of the international gold and jewelry exhibition at the Kuwait International Fairgrounds in Kuwait City on May 23, 2024. (Photo by Yasser AL ZAYYAT / AFP)
A participant shows gold bars during the 21st edition of the international gold and jewelry exhibition at the Kuwait International Fairgrounds in Kuwait City on May 23, 2024. (Photo by Yasser AL ZAYYAT / AFP)
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Gold Advances as Softer Core CPI Data Revives Fed Easing Hopes

A participant shows gold bars during the 21st edition of the international gold and jewelry exhibition at the Kuwait International Fairgrounds in Kuwait City on May 23, 2024. (Photo by Yasser AL ZAYYAT / AFP)
A participant shows gold bars during the 21st edition of the international gold and jewelry exhibition at the Kuwait International Fairgrounds in Kuwait City on May 23, 2024. (Photo by Yasser AL ZAYYAT / AFP)

Gold prices extended gains on Wednesday, as the dollar dipped after US core inflation data came in softer than expected, abating inflation pressures and rekindling expectations that the Federal Reserve's easing cycle may not be over yet.

Spot gold gained 0.4% to $2,688.19 per ounce by 0915 a.m. ET (1415 GMT). US gold futures were up 1.1% to $2,711.40.

Excluding volatile food and energy components, core CPI increased 3.2% on an annual basis, compared with an expected 3.3% rise, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Wednesday, Reuters reported.

"Core CPI came in a little bit below expectations. This is a bit of a positive for gold... The corollary to this is that the Fed will not necessarily exclude the possibility of cutting rates," said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities.

"The probability of a rate cut in January is kind of nothing, but we are pricing some rate cuts by the end of the year here."

Markets now expect the Fed to deliver 40 basis points (bps) worth of rate cuts by year-end, compared with about 31 bps before the inflation data.

The dollar index eased 0.4%, making bullion more attractive for other currency holders. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yields also slipped.

Investors are worried that the potential for tariffs after President-elect Donald Trump re-enters the White House next week could stoke inflation and limit the Fed's ability to lower rates to a greater extent.

Non-yielding bullion is considered a hedge against inflation, although higher rates diminish its appeal.

However, the uncertainties around Trump's tariffs and trade policies for the global economy and their potential impact on growth are likely to sustain safe-haven demand for gold, said Zain Vawda, market analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA.

Spot silver firmed 1% to $30.23 per ounce, platinum rose 0.4% to $938.70, and palladium added 2% to $960.25.