Int’l Resolution to Help Syrians. Is a Russian-American Settlement Possible?

Last-gasp negotiations are underway to salvage the international resolution that allows cross-border aid to reach Syria.

Russia had last week vetoed the extension of the resolution when it was put to a vote at the United Nations Security Council. The resolution expired on Sunday.

What is the resolution?

Issued in 2014, the resolution allows the delivery of aid to Syrians through four crossings from Jordan, Iraq and Turkey.

With the military changes in the ground in Syria, the region and the world over the years, the United States and Russia agreed in 2021 on resolution 2585. It allowed the delivery of aid through only a single crossing at Bab al-Hawa on the Turkish border. The aid would go to over 2.4 million people in the Idlib province, the last remaining opposition stronghold.

What are the American concessions?

Damascus and Moscow have always been critical of the 2014 resolution, which they deemed a violation of Syria’s sovereignty.

When he came to office, US President Joe Biden set the delivery of aid as a priority for his administration.

A meeting he held with Russian President Vladimir Putin in June 2021 was followed by secret negotiations that were held by their respective envoys, Brett McGurk and Alexander Lavrentiev.

Their talks led to a series of American concessions to Russia that shocked western powers that were not consulted by Washington during the negotiations.

The concessions included an agreement to fund “early recovery” projects in Syria that covered health, education, and sewage systems; increasing aid across the borders of the zones of influence inside Syria; and renewing the resolution for another six months, which hinged on a report on the “early recovery” and cross-border deliveries submitted by UN chief Antonio Guterres.

In return, Washington believed that it received a verbal agreement from Moscow that the resolution would be renewed automatically every six months.

What are the differences between Russia and the US?

The resolution expired as the world remains gripped by the Russian-Western conflict in Ukraine. Moscow attempted to hold expanded political negotiations from Syria, but Washington turned them down. It tasked its embassy in New York to follow up on the extension of the resolution, believing it was a done deal.

Washington and its allies believed the extension would have taken place in line with the understandings reached between McGurk and Lavrentiev. Moscow, meanwhile, had expressed its disappointment over the lack of progress in the “early recovery” and “cross-border” files.

Russia believes western countries did not agree to discuss Guterres’ report on these issues, while Washington charges that Moscow did not commit to its pledges and that it wants the US to make concessions with every extension.

Four Russian demands

Norway and Ireland had submitted the draft to extend the resolution for a year, but it was vetoed by Russia, which handed in four demands in return for its vote:

1- Extending the resolution for six months only.

2- Adding electricity to the projects covered in the “early recovery”. The word “electricity” was mentioned at least twice in the Russian draft.

3- Forming a mechanism to monitor the implementation of the resolution, especially the “early recovery” and “cross-border” deliveries.

4- The extension of the mechanism-resolution must require a new international resolution in line with a report from Guterres about actual progress.

Is there a settlement from either side?
Russia used its veto to turn down the western draft, while Moscow’s proposal did not receive enough votes in favor, with ten non-permanent members, including India and the United Arab Emirates, abstaining.

Countries are now confronted with two options: Failing to issue a resolution, which Moscow and Washington want to avoid, or searching for middle ground between the two resolutions.

Western countries believe they have made several new concessions by including the electricity file and monitoring mechanism in the resolution in return for extending the resolution for a year.

Washington believes that Moscow and Damascus are desperate enough for the electricity file to be included in the resolution that they would agree to a settlement over extending the resolution for a year, rather than six months.

Including the electricity file would save Syria from darkness, keep this file away from western sanctions and encourage energy projects with Jordan.

From Russia’s perspective, Moscow no longer trusts the West’s intentions and wants the resolution extended for only six months so that negotiations could again be held when the resolution expires.

It is hoping that the West wants to avoid strengthening Turkey’s position, which should the resolution fail to be extended, will be in charge of aid deliveries to northern Syria. Ankara could exploit the Syrian file for its own goals related to immigration and terrorism files.

A settlement is possible. Discussions have spoken of an extension for nine months, followed by three more. Over the Eid Al-Adha holiday, Arab and foreign diplomats sat together to search for last-gasp settlements as millions of Syrians held their breath.

In the quiet seaside town of Amchit, 45 minutes north of Beirut, public schools are finally in session again, alongside tens of thousands of internally displaced people who have made some of them a makeshift shelter.

As Israeli strikes on Lebanon escalated in September, hundreds of schools in Lebanon were either destroyed or closed due to damage or security concerns, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).

Of around 1,250 public schools in Lebanon, 505 schools have also been turned into temporary shelters for some of the 840,000 people internally displaced by the conflict, according to the Lebanese education ministry.

Last month, the ministry started a phased reopening, allowing 175,000 students - 38,000 of whom are displaced - to return to a learning environment that is still far from normal, Reuters reported.

At Amchit Secondary Public School, which now has 300 enrolled students and expects more as displaced families keep arriving, the once-familiar spaces have transformed to accommodate new realities.

Two-and-a-half months ago, the school was chosen as a shelter, school director Antoine Abdallah Zakhia said.

Today, laundry hangs from classroom windows, cars fill the playground that was once a bustling area, and hallways that used to echo with laughter now serve as resting areas for families seeking refuge.

Fadia Yahfoufi, a displaced woman living temporarily at the school, expressed gratitude mixed with longing.

"Of course, we wish to go back to our homes. No one feels comfortable except at home," she said.

Zeina Shukr, another displaced mother, voiced her concerns for her children's education.

"This year has been unfair. Some children are studying while others aren't. Either everyone studies, or the school year should be postponed," she said.

- EDUCATION WON'T STOP

OCHA said the phased plan to resume classes will enrol 175,000 students, including 38,000 displaced children, across 350 public schools not used as shelters.

"The educational process is one of the aspects of resistance to the aggression Lebanon is facing," Education Minister Abbas Halabi told Reuters

Halabi said the decision to resume the academic year was difficult as many displaced students and teachers were not psychologically prepared to return to school.

In an adjacent building at Amchit Secondary Public School, teachers and students are adjusting to a compressed three-day week, with seven class periods each day to maximize learning time.

Nour Kozhaya, a 16-year-old Amchit resident, remains optimistic. "Lebanon is at war, but education won't stop. We will continue to pursue our dreams," she said.

Teachers are adapting to the challenging conditions.

"Everyone is mentally exhausted ... after all this war is on all of us," Patrick Sakr, a 38-year-old physics teacher, said.

For Ahmad Ali Hajj Hassan, a displaced 17-year-old from the Bekaa region, the three-day school week presents a challenge, but not a deterrent.

"These are the conditions. We can study despite them," he said.

Int’l Resolution to Help Syrians. Is a Russian-American Settlement Possible?