Sadr’s Rivals Weigh Extending Kadhimi’s Term as Iraq PM

Khazali addresses a political rally in October 2021. (AP)
Khazali addresses a political rally in October 2021. (AP)
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Sadr’s Rivals Weigh Extending Kadhimi’s Term as Iraq PM

Khazali addresses a political rally in October 2021. (AP)
Khazali addresses a political rally in October 2021. (AP)

Head of the Hikma Movement in Iraq, Ammar al-Hakim caused a stir among his allies in the Shiite Coordination Framework when he proposed the extension of Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi's term as a solution to the current political impasse in the country.

Prominent Framework member, former PM Nouri al-Maliki has expressed his reservations over the extension.

During a speech to mark the Eid Al-Adha holiday among the Shiite community in Iraq on Sunday, Hakim said: “Introducing radical change in no longer necessary (…) rather, we must confront the major dangers lurking around us and in the region.”

Hakim has no intention in joining the new government, but he is very active in its formation and is keen that it is formed “as soon as possible.”

Moreover, he is confident that any settlement that excludes the Framework’s main Shiite rival, influential cleric Moqatada al-Sadr, is doomed to fail.

Hakim is opting for the safer option where the Shiite factions would avoid a major rift with Sadr’s sizable popular base.

Sadr’s lawmakers had quit parliament last month over the political deadlock and in attempt to speed up government formation efforts. His rivals have yet to make any progress in their efforts.

An informed source told Asharq Al-Awsat that the talks among the Framework since Sadr’s resignation have led to the emergence of a position that is wary of excluding the cleric from a new government.

Maliki will have to adjust with this position even though he believes that he would be able to contain the “consequences of excluding the Sadrists.”

Moreover, cracks have started to emerge in the Framework, which is no longer as united as it used to be since Sadr’s resignation, added the source.

The resignation has allowed members of the Framework, and for the first time since the October parliamentary elections, to review their priorities and interests for the new government.

Meanwhile, Sadr’s supporters are gearing up to hold mass prayers on Friday in a show of force against their rivals.

In remarks that are likely to provoke the cleric’s supporters, Qais al-Khazali, leader of the Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, claimed that Sadr’s withdrawal from the political process will speed up the government formation process.

He said on Sunday that Sadr wasted nine months in attempting to form a government to no avail. His withdrawal has therefore created a new opportunity to form a cabinet.

He claimed that there were no delays in forming a government, noting that parliament is in recess and is set to convene after the Adha holiday.

“Only then will it show whether there is a delay or not,” he charged.

Khazali also noted messages from regional countries and major powers that “clearly support the formation of a national unity government.”

Sadr had been pushing for the establishment of a majority government that excludes the Framework.

Khazali also ignored the ongoing dispute within the Framework over the naming of a prime minister, saying the “only challenge facing the formation of the government is the election of a president.”

Currently, the two main Kurdish parties are in disagreement over the election.

“The dispute between the Kurdish political forces is deeper than that between the Shiites,” said Khazali, adding that the Framework would support the agreement over the president reached by the Kurdish parties.

He acknowledged differences within the Framework over the naming of a PM, but he stressed that they “did not amount to being a real problem.”

In contrast to Hakim’s position, he expressed his rejection of extending the term of the current caretaker cabinet or introducing a reshuffle.



Lebanese Army Awaits Political Decision to Implement UNSCR 1701

Soldiers from the Lebanese Army and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) patrol near the southern village of Marjayoun (AFP).
Soldiers from the Lebanese Army and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) patrol near the southern village of Marjayoun (AFP).
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Lebanese Army Awaits Political Decision to Implement UNSCR 1701

Soldiers from the Lebanese Army and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) patrol near the southern village of Marjayoun (AFP).
Soldiers from the Lebanese Army and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) patrol near the southern village of Marjayoun (AFP).

Discussions are underway on the role of the Lebanese army in maintaining security in South Lebanon amid rising optimism about a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701

As part of these preparations, the Lebanese government has begun strengthening the army by recruiting 1,500 new soldiers out of the 6,000 needed, aligning with the outcomes of the Paris Conference held on October 23, which allocated 200 million euros to support the military institution, from a broader package intended to help the Lebanese people during the Israel-Hezbollah war.

In remarks to Asharq Al-Awsat, a security official highlighted that the army currently has 4,500 personnel stationed south of the Litani River but requires additional manpower.

The unidentified official noted, however, that any effective deployment would require a political decision and government support. “The Lebanese military will implement Resolution 1701 as is, with no intention of clashing with any party. However, if Israel violates Lebanese sovereignty, the army is fully prepared to respond,” he said.

Although Hezbollah opposes withdrawing from south of the Litani and handing over border security duties to the Lebanese military and UNIFIL, claiming the army lacks the capabilities to defend against Israeli aggression, the security source clarified that the military has been authorized to repel any attacks but will avoid initiating conflict. The army’s expanded deployment depends on a political decision, which, once made, will see the military act without hesitation to uphold Lebanese sovereignty.

While military preparedness is essential, Brigadier General Wehbeh Qatisha argues that Lebanon’s security requires more than just troops or advanced weaponry at the border. The presence of the Lebanese military as a representative of the Lebanese state is also a significant deterrent. He pointed out that prior to 1970, Israel refrained from attacking Lebanon, despite a much smaller army. However, he cautioned that even with a substantial deployment today, the persistence of Hezbollah’s military presence would continue to undermine Lebanon’s stability and security.

Since the 1969 Cairo Agreement, which allowed the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) to launch operations against Israel from southern Lebanon, the Lebanese army has been restricted in its ability to enforce security along the border. After the PLO’s departure in 1982, Hezbollah took over military operations in the South. Even after the 2006 war and the adoption of Resolution 1701, which called for the Lebanese military and UNIFIL to secure the border, Hezbollah retained its armed presence and continued to conduct exercises simulating conflict with Israel. The latter violated the international resolution thousands of times, until the last war broke out against the background of turning southern Lebanon into a front supporting Gaza.

Qatisha emphasized that the path to stability lies in comprehensive implementation of international resolutions, particularly 1701 and 1559, and restricting arms to the Lebanese army. He argued that achieving balanced deterrence requires not only military force but also a commitment to diplomacy and international support.