Oil Prices Rise Ahead of Potential Large US Rate Hike

Oil pump jacks are seen at the Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas deposit in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina, January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian
Oil pump jacks are seen at the Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas deposit in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina, January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian
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Oil Prices Rise Ahead of Potential Large US Rate Hike

Oil pump jacks are seen at the Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas deposit in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina, January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian
Oil pump jacks are seen at the Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas deposit in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina, January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian

Oil prices rose on Thursday, with Brent breaking above $100 a barrel, as investors weighed tight supplies against the prospect of a large US rate hike that would stem inflation and curb crude demand.

Brent crude futures for September climbed 68 cents, or 0.7%, to $100.25 a barrel by 0400 GMT after settling below $100 for the second straight session on Wednesday.

US West Texas Intermediate crude for August delivery was at $96.85 a barrel, up 55 cents, or 0.6%, after rising 46 cents in the previous session.

Oil prices have tumbled in the past two weeks on recession concerns despite a drop in crude and refined products exports from Russia amid Western sanctions and supply disruption in Libya, Reuters reported.

"It is all sentiment driven at the moment and that has caused most of the losses seen in oil markets over the last few weeks," said Howie Lee, an economist at Singapore's OCBC bank.

"I don't see any significant changes in oil supply fundamentals and that is probably why we still see Brent holding around the $100 level."

The US Federal Reserve is seen ramping up its battle with 40-year high inflation with a supersized 100 basis points rate hike this month after a grim inflation report showed price pressures accelerating.

The Fed rate hike is expected to follow a similar surprise move by the Bank of Canada on Wednesday.

Investors also flocked to the dollar, often seen as a safe haven asset. The dollar index hit a 20-year high on Wednesday, which makes oil purchases more expensive for non-US buyers.

Worries of COVID-19 curbs in multiple Chinese cities to rein in new cases of a highly infectious subvariant has also kept a lid on oil prices.

China's daily crude oil imports in June sank to their lowest since July 2018, as refiners anticipated lockdown measures to curb demand, customs data showed on Wednesday.

Data from the US Energy Information Administration also point to slackening demand with product supplied slumping to 18.7 million barrels per day, its lowest since June 2021. Crude inventories rose, bolstered by another big release from strategic reserves.

"We had always expected demand to struggle in the wake of sky-high product prices," said Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics in a note.

"But the size of the weekly drop suggests that it may be a one-off and may, at least partially, reverse in the coming weeks," Bain added.



Iran's Rial Hits a Record Low, Battered by Regional Tensions and Energy Crisis

An Iranian trader counts money in Tehran's Grand Bazaar. (Reuters)
An Iranian trader counts money in Tehran's Grand Bazaar. (Reuters)
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Iran's Rial Hits a Record Low, Battered by Regional Tensions and Energy Crisis

An Iranian trader counts money in Tehran's Grand Bazaar. (Reuters)
An Iranian trader counts money in Tehran's Grand Bazaar. (Reuters)

The Iranian rial on Wednesday fell to its lowest level in history, losing more than 10% of value since Donald Trump won the US presidential election in November and signaling new challenges for Tehran as it remains locked in the wars raging in the Middle East.

The rial traded at 777,000 rials to the dollar, traders in Tehran said, down from 703,000 rials on the day Trump won.

Iran’s Central Bank has in the past flooded the market with more hard currencies in an attempt to improve the rate.

In an interview with state television Tuesday night, Central Bank Gov. Mohammad Reza Farzin said that the supply of foreign currency would increase and the exchange rate would be stabilized. He said that $220 million had been injected into the currency market, The AP reported.

The currency plunged as Iran ordered the closure of schools, universities, and government offices on Wednesday due to a worsening energy crisis exacerbated by harsh winter conditions. The crisis follows a summer of blackouts and is now compounded by severe cold, snow and air pollution.

Despite Iran’s vast natural gas and oil reserves, years of underinvestment and sanctions have left the energy sector ill-prepared for seasonal surges, leading to rolling blackouts and gas shortages.

In 2015, during Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers, the rial was at 32,000 to $1. On July 30, the day that Iran’s reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian was sworn in and began his term, the rate was 584,000 to $1.

Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the accord in 2018, sparking years of tensions between the countries that persist today.

Iran’s economy has struggled for years under crippling international sanctions over its rapidly advancing nuclear program, which now enriches uranium at near weapons-grade levels.

Pezeshkian, elected after a helicopter crash killed hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi in May, came to power on a promise to reach a deal to ease Western sanctions.

Tensions still remain high between the nations, 45 years after the 1979 US Embassy takeover and the 444-day hostage crisis that followed. Before the revolution, the rial traded at 70 for $1.