Oil Prices Rise Ahead of Potential Large US Rate Hike

Oil pump jacks are seen at the Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas deposit in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina, January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian
Oil pump jacks are seen at the Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas deposit in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina, January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian
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Oil Prices Rise Ahead of Potential Large US Rate Hike

Oil pump jacks are seen at the Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas deposit in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina, January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian
Oil pump jacks are seen at the Vaca Muerta shale oil and gas deposit in the Patagonian province of Neuquen, Argentina, January 21, 2019. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian

Oil prices rose on Thursday, with Brent breaking above $100 a barrel, as investors weighed tight supplies against the prospect of a large US rate hike that would stem inflation and curb crude demand.

Brent crude futures for September climbed 68 cents, or 0.7%, to $100.25 a barrel by 0400 GMT after settling below $100 for the second straight session on Wednesday.

US West Texas Intermediate crude for August delivery was at $96.85 a barrel, up 55 cents, or 0.6%, after rising 46 cents in the previous session.

Oil prices have tumbled in the past two weeks on recession concerns despite a drop in crude and refined products exports from Russia amid Western sanctions and supply disruption in Libya, Reuters reported.

"It is all sentiment driven at the moment and that has caused most of the losses seen in oil markets over the last few weeks," said Howie Lee, an economist at Singapore's OCBC bank.

"I don't see any significant changes in oil supply fundamentals and that is probably why we still see Brent holding around the $100 level."

The US Federal Reserve is seen ramping up its battle with 40-year high inflation with a supersized 100 basis points rate hike this month after a grim inflation report showed price pressures accelerating.

The Fed rate hike is expected to follow a similar surprise move by the Bank of Canada on Wednesday.

Investors also flocked to the dollar, often seen as a safe haven asset. The dollar index hit a 20-year high on Wednesday, which makes oil purchases more expensive for non-US buyers.

Worries of COVID-19 curbs in multiple Chinese cities to rein in new cases of a highly infectious subvariant has also kept a lid on oil prices.

China's daily crude oil imports in June sank to their lowest since July 2018, as refiners anticipated lockdown measures to curb demand, customs data showed on Wednesday.

Data from the US Energy Information Administration also point to slackening demand with product supplied slumping to 18.7 million barrels per day, its lowest since June 2021. Crude inventories rose, bolstered by another big release from strategic reserves.

"We had always expected demand to struggle in the wake of sky-high product prices," said Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics in a note.

"But the size of the weekly drop suggests that it may be a one-off and may, at least partially, reverse in the coming weeks," Bain added.



Gold Edges Down as Markets Eye Fed's 2025 Monetary Policy Outlook

Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo
Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo
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Gold Edges Down as Markets Eye Fed's 2025 Monetary Policy Outlook

Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo
Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo

Gold prices edged lower as the dollar held firm on Wednesday, with investors awaiting a key US Federal Reserve decision expected to shape market sentiment and gold's trajectory by outlining the central bank's 2025 outlook.

Spot gold slipped 0.3% to $2,637.13 per ounce by 10:00 a.m. EST (1500 GMT). US gold futures were down 0.3% at $2,653.20.

The Fed's 2025 economic projections and decision are due at 2 p.m. EST (1900 GMT), followed by Fed chair Jerome Powell's press conference at 2:30 p.m. EST, Reuters reported.

"What markets will truly focus on is the tone set by Jerome Powell. A hawkish stance could drive Treasury yields higher and bolster the dollar, putting downward pressure on gold prices," said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades.

"Conversely, a more cautious tone might provide some support for bullion."

While markets are pricing in a 99% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut during this meeting, the chances of another reduction in January stand at only 17%.

Non-yielding gold tends to do well in a low-interest-rate environment.

Traders are also watching out for key US GDP and inflation data due later this week that could further shape expectations around monetary policy.

"I do see the consolidation as a continuation pattern within the longer term uptrend in gold. I think that trend will re-exert itself in the first quarter of 2025," said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

Grant highlighted that bullion remains underpinned by easing central bank policies, geopolitical tensions, sustained buying by central banks, and rising global political instability.

UBS echoed this sentiment in a note, predicting gold would "build on its gains in 2025." The bank emphasized that central banks are likely to continue accumulating gold as they diversify reserves, while heightened demand for hedges could drive inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Spot silver fell 1.1% at $30.19 per ounce, platinum slipped 1.3% to $926.90, while palladium declined 1.3% to $922.19.