What's Next for the Euro after Slump against Dollar?

A Euro banknote is displayed on US Dollar banknotes in this illustration taken, February 14, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
A Euro banknote is displayed on US Dollar banknotes in this illustration taken, February 14, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
TT
20

What's Next for the Euro after Slump against Dollar?

A Euro banknote is displayed on US Dollar banknotes in this illustration taken, February 14, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
A Euro banknote is displayed on US Dollar banknotes in this illustration taken, February 14, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

The euro's plunge against the dollar, triggered by the Ukraine war and mounting risks to the EU economy, has driven the two currencies to parity for the first time in two decades.

The European single currency sank to $0.9952 on Thursday -- a level not seen since the end of 2002, the year it was officially introduced.

But traders believe the euro could recover, provided it clears several hurdles in the coming months.

The first to get over is to avoid the risk of a halt in Russian gas supplies to Europe, which would cause electricity prices to soar and force eurozone countries to limit some industrial activity.

"If gas flows from Russia normalize, or at least stop falling, following the end of the Nord Stream 1 maintenance shut-down next week, this should somewhat decrease market fears of an imminent gas crisis in Europe," Esther Reichelt, an analyst at Commerzbank, told AFP.

With Russian gas giant Gazprom having warned it cannot guarantee that the pipeline will function properly, European countries fear that Moscow will use a technical reason to permanently halt deliveries and put pressure on them.

French President Emmanuel Macron even said on Thursday that Russia was using energy "as a weapon of war".

If Nord Stream 1 "doesn't turn back on, the euro falls as the economic shock waves will be felt worldwide as the European energy crisis could very well trigger a recession," warned Stephen Innes, an analyst at SPI Asset Management.

- ECB wake-up call -
"Recession would inevitably mean that the market becomes even more concerned about fragmentation risks in the eurozone," added Jane Foley, a foreign exchange specialist at Rabobank.

Like other central banks, the European Central Bank (ECB) is seeking to avoid stifling the economy by raising rates too sharply.

But it also has to worry about a possible fragmentation of the debt market, with large differences in borrowing rates across the eurozone.

The ECB has so far maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy to support the economy, while the US Federal Reserve has instead raised rates and promises to continue to do so to counter inflation.

It will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday, and has indicated that it will raise rates for the first time in 11 years.

"If the ECB is aiming to give the euro a boost, it will have to deliver a 50-bp hike in July and/or signal that 75-bp moves are on the cards for September," S&P analysts said in a note.

"Speedier policy adjustments now would help anchor inflation expectations, reducing the risk of needing a restrictive policy stance further down the line," they added.

- Fed slowdown -
For economists at Berenberg, the euro's fall is more attributable to the strength of the dollar, which has "appreciated strongly against a broad basket of currencies since mid-2021".

The dollar has benefited from the Fed's tightening of monetary policy as it tries to limit inflation, which hit record highs again in June.

"Markets are speculating that the Fed may raise rates by 100bp instead of 75bp at its next meeting on 27 July," noted Berenberg.

"If so, this could strengthen the dollar further."

UniCredit added: "Towards year-end, prospects of declining inflation and more-balanced messaging from central banks as the cyclical peak of official rates nears should support a return of risk appetite and ease USD demand."

Should that happen, the euro could move away from parity in the last few months of 2022, they say.



Diriyah Company Awards $600 Million Contract to Salini Saudi Arabia for 400 Retail Units

The heart of Diriyah reflecting 300 years of history and heritage (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The heart of Diriyah reflecting 300 years of history and heritage (Asharq Al-Awsat)
TT
20

Diriyah Company Awards $600 Million Contract to Salini Saudi Arabia for 400 Retail Units

The heart of Diriyah reflecting 300 years of history and heritage (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The heart of Diriyah reflecting 300 years of history and heritage (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Diriyah Company has awarded a major new $600 million contract for construction work on the high-profile Diriyah Square retail precinct to Salini Saudi Arabia, a subsidiary of the Webuild Group.

The square is located at the heart of Diriyah, the City of Earth, within the unique Najdi-inspired architectural Diriyah Masterplan.

It is designed to develop a vibrant retail district featuring a mix of 400 iconic retail, leisure, and dining brands.

The district will emphasize exceptional customer experiences, focusing on pedestrians and offering unparalleled shopping, dining, and living opportunities. Also, the square aims to pioneer the future retail and leisure landscape of the region.

This marks the third major involvement of the Webuild Group in helping to create the unique flagship retail environment in Diriyah.

Salini is already well advanced in constructing a 10,500-space car park beneath Diriyah Square, which will be among the largest in the world.

The car park will include bus stations, dedicated taxi and VIP drop-off areas, and an underground four-lane gyratory connecting the subterranean Masterplan, providing best-in-class vehicle access and customer parking experiences across Diriyah Square.

Salini is also nearing completion of the structural engineering for all above-ground Diriyah Square assets, including the retail spaces, hotels, branded residences, offices, and the Grand Mosque, according to Diriyah Company.

The contract for developing the retail district includes constructing 73 individual buildings and 400 shell-and-core retail units over a built-up area of 365,340 square meters, covering facades, finishes, and fit-outs of the units.

Every building will use traditional Najdi architectural design themes to create a unique pedestrianized retail environment in the heart of Diriyah reflecting 300-years of history and heritage.

Commenting on the latest contract award, Diriyah Company Group CEO Jerry Inzerillo said: “Diriyah Square is one of our most exciting, anticipated, and prestigious districts, and we are extremely pleased to have signed with Salini to deliver it, bringing their immense global experience to the table.”

“It is yet another significant milestone in our development journey and will help set the stage for Diriyah Square’s retail spaces to welcome a diverse array of shoppers from our residential communities, surrounding office spaces, and the millions who visit us every year,” he added.

Webuild CEO Pietro Salini said: “We are proud to contribute to a project of such symbolic and strategic importance to Saudi Arabia.”

“This will further strengthen our presence in the Kingdom and positively impact both the area and the local community,” he stated.

Salini also said: “We are excited about developing this new phase of Diriyah Square, an integral part of an iconic project. The Webuild Group has been present in Saudi Arabia since 1966, delivering more than 90 projects.”

He added that his company will remain committed to supporting the Kingdom in developing some of the world’s most complex infrastructure projects, particularly in areas such as civil buildings, sustainable mobility, and desalination.