CIA Chief: Ukraine Making China Rethink When, Not Whether, to Invade Taiwan

CIA chief William Burns. (Getty Images)
CIA chief William Burns. (Getty Images)
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CIA Chief: Ukraine Making China Rethink When, Not Whether, to Invade Taiwan

CIA chief William Burns. (Getty Images)
CIA chief William Burns. (Getty Images)

China appears determined on using force in Taiwan, with Russia's experience in Ukraine affecting Beijing's calculations on how, not whether, to invade, the head of the CIA said Wednesday.

Appearing at the Aspen Security Forum, Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns played down speculation that Chinese President Xi Jinping could move on Taiwan after a key Communist Party meeting later this year, AFP said.

"The risks of that become higher, it seems to us, the further into this decade that you get," Burns said.

Burns said that China was "unsettled" when looking at Russia's five-month-old war in Ukraine, which he characterized as a "strategic failure" for President Vladimir Putin as he had hoped to topple the Kyiv government within a week.

"Our sense is that it probably affects less the question of whether the Chinese leadership might choose some years down the road to use force to control Taiwan, but how and when they would do it," Burns said.

He said that China is believed to have observed from Ukraine that "you don't achieve quick, decisive victories with underwhelming force."

"I suspect the lesson that the Chinese leadership and military are drawing is that you've got to amass overwhelming force if you're going to contemplate that in the future," he said.

China also has likely learned that it has to "control the information space" and "do everything you can to shore up your economy against the potential for sanctions," he added.

Burns, in line with previous US assessments, said that the United States does not believe that Beijing is offering military support to Russia despite rhetorical backing.

He said China has stepped up purchases of Russian energy but appears careful about not incurring Western sanctions.

China considers self-ruled Taiwan part of its territory awaiting reunification, by force if necessary.

China's defeated nationalists fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing the mainland's civil war, but the island has since developed into a vibrant democracy and leading technological power.



Evacuations and Call for Aid as Typhoon Usagi Approaches Philippines

A villager on a wooden boat paddles on a flooded village caused by Typhoon Toraji in Tuguegarao city, Cagayan city, Philippines, 13 November 2024. (EPA)
A villager on a wooden boat paddles on a flooded village caused by Typhoon Toraji in Tuguegarao city, Cagayan city, Philippines, 13 November 2024. (EPA)
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Evacuations and Call for Aid as Typhoon Usagi Approaches Philippines

A villager on a wooden boat paddles on a flooded village caused by Typhoon Toraji in Tuguegarao city, Cagayan city, Philippines, 13 November 2024. (EPA)
A villager on a wooden boat paddles on a flooded village caused by Typhoon Toraji in Tuguegarao city, Cagayan city, Philippines, 13 November 2024. (EPA)

The Philippines ordered evacuations Wednesday ahead of Typhoon Usagi's arrival, as the UN's disaster office sought $32.9 million in aid for the country after recent storms killed more than 150 people.

The national weather service said Usagi -- the archipelago's fifth major storm in three weeks -- would likely make landfall Thursday in Cagayan province on the northeast tip of main island Luzon.

Provincial civil defense chief Rueli Rapsing said mayors had been ordered to evacuate residents in vulnerable areas, by force if necessary, as the 120 kilometers (75 miles) an hour typhoon bears down on the country.

"Under (emergency protocols), all the mayors must implement the forced evacuation, especially for susceptible areas," he told AFP, adding as many as 40,000 people in the province lived in hazard-prone areas.

The area is set to be soaked in "intense to torrential" rain on Thursday and Friday, which can trigger floods and landslides with the ground still sodden from recent downpours, state weather forecaster Christopher Perez told reporters.

He urged residents of coastal areas to move inland due to the threat of storm surges and giant coastal waves up to three meters (nine feet) high, with shipping also facing the peril of 8–10-meter waves.

A sixth tropical storm, Man-yi, is expected to strengthen into a typhoon before hitting the center of the country as early as Friday, Perez said.

With more than 700,000 people forced out of their homes, the successive storms have taken a toll on the resources of both the government and local households, the UN said late Tuesday.

About 210,000 of those most affected by recent flooding need support for "critical lifesaving and protection efforts over the next three months", the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said in a statement.

"Typhoons are overlapping. As soon as communities attempt to recover from the shock, the next tropical storm is already hitting them again," UN Philippines Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator Gustavo Gonzalez said.

"In this context, the response capacity gets exhausted and budgets depleted."

The initiative "will help us mobilize the capacities and resources of the humanitarian community to better support government institutions at national, regional and local levels," Gonzalez added.

More than 28,000 people displaced by recent storms are still living in evacuation centers operated by local governments, the country's civil defense office said in its latest tally.

Government crews were still working to restore downed power and communication lines and clearing debris from roads.

About 20 big storms and typhoons hit the archipelago nation or its surrounding waters each year, killing scores of people and keeping millions in enduring poverty.

A recent study showed that storms in the Asia-Pacific region are increasingly forming closer to coastlines, intensifying more rapidly and lasting longer over land due to climate change.