CIA Chief: Ukraine Making China Rethink When, Not Whether, to Invade Taiwan

CIA chief William Burns. (Getty Images)
CIA chief William Burns. (Getty Images)
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CIA Chief: Ukraine Making China Rethink When, Not Whether, to Invade Taiwan

CIA chief William Burns. (Getty Images)
CIA chief William Burns. (Getty Images)

China appears determined on using force in Taiwan, with Russia's experience in Ukraine affecting Beijing's calculations on how, not whether, to invade, the head of the CIA said Wednesday.

Appearing at the Aspen Security Forum, Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns played down speculation that Chinese President Xi Jinping could move on Taiwan after a key Communist Party meeting later this year, AFP said.

"The risks of that become higher, it seems to us, the further into this decade that you get," Burns said.

Burns said that China was "unsettled" when looking at Russia's five-month-old war in Ukraine, which he characterized as a "strategic failure" for President Vladimir Putin as he had hoped to topple the Kyiv government within a week.

"Our sense is that it probably affects less the question of whether the Chinese leadership might choose some years down the road to use force to control Taiwan, but how and when they would do it," Burns said.

He said that China is believed to have observed from Ukraine that "you don't achieve quick, decisive victories with underwhelming force."

"I suspect the lesson that the Chinese leadership and military are drawing is that you've got to amass overwhelming force if you're going to contemplate that in the future," he said.

China also has likely learned that it has to "control the information space" and "do everything you can to shore up your economy against the potential for sanctions," he added.

Burns, in line with previous US assessments, said that the United States does not believe that Beijing is offering military support to Russia despite rhetorical backing.

He said China has stepped up purchases of Russian energy but appears careful about not incurring Western sanctions.

China considers self-ruled Taiwan part of its territory awaiting reunification, by force if necessary.

China's defeated nationalists fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing the mainland's civil war, but the island has since developed into a vibrant democracy and leading technological power.



4 Dead, 30 Missing after Ferry Sinks on Way to Indonesia's Bali

Family members wait at Ketapang Port in East Java for updates on the search for missing people after a ferry sank on its way to the popular Indonesian resort island of Bali. STR / AFP
Family members wait at Ketapang Port in East Java for updates on the search for missing people after a ferry sank on its way to the popular Indonesian resort island of Bali. STR / AFP
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4 Dead, 30 Missing after Ferry Sinks on Way to Indonesia's Bali

Family members wait at Ketapang Port in East Java for updates on the search for missing people after a ferry sank on its way to the popular Indonesian resort island of Bali. STR / AFP
Family members wait at Ketapang Port in East Java for updates on the search for missing people after a ferry sank on its way to the popular Indonesian resort island of Bali. STR / AFP

At least four people were dead and dozens unaccounted for Thursday after a ferry sank in rough seas on its way to Indonesian resort island Bali, according to rescue authorities who said 31 survivors had been plucked from the water so far.

Rescuers were racing to find 30 people still missing at sea after the vessel carrying 65 passengers and crew sank before midnight on Wednesday as it sailed to the popular holiday destination from Indonesia's main island Java.

"The ferry tilted and immediately sank," survivor Eka Toniansyah told reporters at a Bali hospital.

"Most of the passengers were from Indonesia. I was with my father. My father is dead."

Indonesia's national search and rescue agency chief Mohammad Syafii told a news conference Thursday that 31 survivors had been found, AFP reported.

"Four people died, so 30 people are still being searched for," he said, adding the national agency sent a helicopter to help the effort.

President Prabowo Subianto, who was on a trip to Saudi Arabia, ordered an immediate emergency response, cabinet secretary Teddy Indra Wijaya said in a statement Thursday, adding the cause of the accident was "bad weather".

Java-based Surabaya search and rescue agency head Nanang Sigit, who had earlier put the total number of missing at 38, said efforts to reach the doomed vessel were initially hampered by adverse weather conditions.

Waves as high as 2.5 meters (8 feet) with "strong winds and strong currents" had affected the rescue operation, he said, adding conditions have since improved

A rescue team of at least 54 personnel including from the navy and police were dispatched along with inflatable rescue boats, he said, while a bigger vessel was later sent from Surabaya city to assist the search efforts.

Following currents

Nanang said rescuers would follow currents and expand the search area if there were still unaccounted for people by the end of the day.

"For today's search, we are still focusing on search above the water where initial victims were found," the Surabaya search and rescue chief said.

The ferry's manifest showed 53 passengers and 12 crew members, he said, but rescuers were still assessing if there were more people onboard than the manifest showed.

It is common in Indonesia for the actual number of passengers on a boat to differ from the manifest.

Frequent accidents

The ferry crossing from Ketapang port in Java's Banyuwangi regency to Bali's Gilimanuk port -- one of the busiest in Indonesia -- is around 5 kilometers (3 miles) as the crow flies and takes around one hour.

It is often used by people crossing between the islands by car.

Four of the known survivors saved themselves by using the ferry's lifeboat and were found in the water early Thursday, the Surabaya rescue agency said.

It said the ferry was also transporting 22 vehicles, including 14 trucks.

It was unclear if any foreigners were onboard when the ferry sank.

Marine accidents are a regular occurrence in Indonesia, a Southeast Asian archipelago of around 17,000 islands, in part due to lax safety standards and sometimes due to bad weather.

In March, a boat carrying 16 people capsized in rough waters off Bali, killing an Australian woman and injuring at least one other person.

A ferry carrying more than 800 people ran aground in shallow waters off East Nusa Tenggara province in 2022 and remained stuck for two days before being dislodged with no one hurt.

And in 2018, more than 150 people drowned when a ferry sank in one of the world's deepest lakes on Sumatra island.