CIA Chief: Ukraine Making China Rethink When, Not Whether, to Invade Taiwan

CIA chief William Burns. (Getty Images)
CIA chief William Burns. (Getty Images)
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CIA Chief: Ukraine Making China Rethink When, Not Whether, to Invade Taiwan

CIA chief William Burns. (Getty Images)
CIA chief William Burns. (Getty Images)

China appears determined on using force in Taiwan, with Russia's experience in Ukraine affecting Beijing's calculations on how, not whether, to invade, the head of the CIA said Wednesday.

Appearing at the Aspen Security Forum, Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns played down speculation that Chinese President Xi Jinping could move on Taiwan after a key Communist Party meeting later this year, AFP said.

"The risks of that become higher, it seems to us, the further into this decade that you get," Burns said.

Burns said that China was "unsettled" when looking at Russia's five-month-old war in Ukraine, which he characterized as a "strategic failure" for President Vladimir Putin as he had hoped to topple the Kyiv government within a week.

"Our sense is that it probably affects less the question of whether the Chinese leadership might choose some years down the road to use force to control Taiwan, but how and when they would do it," Burns said.

He said that China is believed to have observed from Ukraine that "you don't achieve quick, decisive victories with underwhelming force."

"I suspect the lesson that the Chinese leadership and military are drawing is that you've got to amass overwhelming force if you're going to contemplate that in the future," he said.

China also has likely learned that it has to "control the information space" and "do everything you can to shore up your economy against the potential for sanctions," he added.

Burns, in line with previous US assessments, said that the United States does not believe that Beijing is offering military support to Russia despite rhetorical backing.

He said China has stepped up purchases of Russian energy but appears careful about not incurring Western sanctions.

China considers self-ruled Taiwan part of its territory awaiting reunification, by force if necessary.

China's defeated nationalists fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing the mainland's civil war, but the island has since developed into a vibrant democracy and leading technological power.



Trump Administration Tells Embassies to Rein in Criticism of Foreign Elections

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio takes part in a meeting between President Donald Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, US, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio takes part in a meeting between President Donald Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, US, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)
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Trump Administration Tells Embassies to Rein in Criticism of Foreign Elections

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio takes part in a meeting between President Donald Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, US, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio takes part in a meeting between President Donald Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, US, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)

The State Department is pulling back from commenting on or criticizing elections overseas unless there is a clear and compelling US foreign policy interest in doing so.

In new guidance issued Thursday to all US embassies and consulates abroad, the department said that those outposts should refrain from issuing statements that invoke any particular ideology and that what they may say must be in line with President Donald Trump’s stated position that the US will respect the sovereignty of all foreign nations.

“Consistent with the administration’s emphasis on national sovereignty, the department will comment publicly on elections only when there is a clear and compelling US foreign policy interest to do so,” according to the cable, a copy of which was shared with The Associated Press.

The department has for decades issued statements highly critical of or questioning the legitimacy of certain elections, notably in authoritarian countries. That is changing as the Trump administration has emphasized an “America First” foreign policy approach centered on US interests.

“When it is appropriate to comment on a foreign election, our message should be brief, focused on congratulating the winning candidate, and, when appropriate, noting shared foreign policy interests,” the cable said.

The document, which was signed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and first reported by the Wall Street Journal, said “messages should avoid opining on the fairness or integrity of an electoral process, its legitimacy or the democratic values of the country in question.”

In the past, US commentary questioning or criticizing elections aboard often has come in support of findings from various election monitoring groups, such as the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe or US-based institutions such as the Carter Center, the National Democratic Institute and International Republican Institute.

The department cable said that amplifying the findings of outside groups or denouncing electoral irregularities can only be done with permission from senior officials in Washington.