CIA Chief: Ukraine Making China Rethink When, Not Whether, to Invade Taiwan

CIA chief William Burns. (Getty Images)
CIA chief William Burns. (Getty Images)
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CIA Chief: Ukraine Making China Rethink When, Not Whether, to Invade Taiwan

CIA chief William Burns. (Getty Images)
CIA chief William Burns. (Getty Images)

China appears determined on using force in Taiwan, with Russia's experience in Ukraine affecting Beijing's calculations on how, not whether, to invade, the head of the CIA said Wednesday.

Appearing at the Aspen Security Forum, Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns played down speculation that Chinese President Xi Jinping could move on Taiwan after a key Communist Party meeting later this year, AFP said.

"The risks of that become higher, it seems to us, the further into this decade that you get," Burns said.

Burns said that China was "unsettled" when looking at Russia's five-month-old war in Ukraine, which he characterized as a "strategic failure" for President Vladimir Putin as he had hoped to topple the Kyiv government within a week.

"Our sense is that it probably affects less the question of whether the Chinese leadership might choose some years down the road to use force to control Taiwan, but how and when they would do it," Burns said.

He said that China is believed to have observed from Ukraine that "you don't achieve quick, decisive victories with underwhelming force."

"I suspect the lesson that the Chinese leadership and military are drawing is that you've got to amass overwhelming force if you're going to contemplate that in the future," he said.

China also has likely learned that it has to "control the information space" and "do everything you can to shore up your economy against the potential for sanctions," he added.

Burns, in line with previous US assessments, said that the United States does not believe that Beijing is offering military support to Russia despite rhetorical backing.

He said China has stepped up purchases of Russian energy but appears careful about not incurring Western sanctions.

China considers self-ruled Taiwan part of its territory awaiting reunification, by force if necessary.

China's defeated nationalists fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing the mainland's civil war, but the island has since developed into a vibrant democracy and leading technological power.



Reactions to the ICC warrants

An exterior view of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, Netherlands, 21 November 2024. EPA/REMKO DE WAAL
An exterior view of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, Netherlands, 21 November 2024. EPA/REMKO DE WAAL
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Reactions to the ICC warrants

An exterior view of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, Netherlands, 21 November 2024. EPA/REMKO DE WAAL
An exterior view of the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, Netherlands, 21 November 2024. EPA/REMKO DE WAAL

These are reactions to the International Criminal Court arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant and Hamas commander Ibrahim al-Masri, who is believed to be dead.

The warrants are for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity during the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, and Israel's military campaign in Gaza since then.

ISRAEL:
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office:
"Israel rejects with disgust the absurd and false actions leveled against it by ICC," the office said, calling the move antisemitic.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog:
"The decision chose the side of terrorism and evil over democracy and freedom and turned the international justice system itself into a human shield for Hamas' crimes against humanity."

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar:
"A dark moment for the International Criminal Court," Saar said, adding the court had "lost all legitimacy" and adding that it had issued "absurd orders without authority".

Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid:
"Israel defends its life against terrorist organizations that attacked, murdered and raped our citizens, these arrest warrants are a reward for terrorism."

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich:
"Israel will continue to defend its citizens and its security with determination," he said, urging Netanyahu to sever contact with the court and impose sanctions on the Palestinian Authority and its leaders "to the point of its collapse".

Israeli Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir:
"The International Criminal Court in The Hague shows once again that it is antisemitic through and through."

PALESTINIANS:

Hamas official statement:
"We call on the International Criminal Court to expand the scope of accountability to all criminal occupation leaders."

Senior Hamas official Basem Naim:
"This is an important step on the path to justice and bringing justice to the victims but it remains a limited and spiritual step if it is not backed practically by all countries."

UNITED STATES:
Republican US Senator Lindsey Graham, a close ally of President-elect Trump: "The Court is a dangerous joke. It is now time for the US Senate to act and sanction this irresponsible body."

EUROPE:
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said the ICC warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant are not political and the court decision should be respected and implemented.

Dutch Foreign Minister Caspar Veldkamp told parliament, "The Netherlands obviously respects the independence of the ICC," adding: "We won't engage in non-essential contacts and we will act on the arrest warrants. We fully comply with the Rome Statute of the ICC," he added.

France's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Christophe Lemoine said the French reaction to the warrants would be "in line with ICC statutes" but declined to say whether France would arrest the leader if he came to the country. "It's a point that is legally complex," he said.

Norway's Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide said, "It is important that the ICC carries out its mandate in a judicious manner. I have confidence that the court will proceed with the case based on the highest fair trial standards."

Ireland's Prime Minister Simon Harris called the warrants "an extremely significant step" and added that Ireland respects the role of the ICC and anyone in a position to assist it in carrying out its vital work must do so "with urgency".

MIDDLE EAST:
Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said the ICC rulings should be respected and implemented, adding that "Palestinians deserve justice".