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Iraq: There's Capacity to Increase Oil Production by 200,000 bpd on Demand

Oilfield in Iraq - Filephoto/Reuters
Oilfield in Iraq - Filephoto/Reuters
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Iraq: There's Capacity to Increase Oil Production by 200,000 bpd on Demand

Oilfield in Iraq - Filephoto/Reuters
Oilfield in Iraq - Filephoto/Reuters

Iraq has the capacity to increase its oil production by 200,000 barrel per day (bpd) this year if asked, an executive of Iraq’s Basra Oil Co. (BOC) revealed on Friday.

“If Iraq is asked to increase production, we can add 200,000 barrels until the end of the year as available production capacity,” Hassan Mohammed, deputy BOC manager in charge of oilfields and licensing rounds affairs, said in an interview with Reuters.

“But (to produce) more than this amount, (we) need more time.” The increase will come from West Qurna 1 oilfields and other oilfields developed by Iraqi state-run oil companies, Mohammed added.

This comes two weeks after US President Joe Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia as part of his first trip to the Middle East as US president, hoping to strike a deal on oil production to help drive down gasoline prices.

Oil prices have rocketed to their highest levels since 2008, climbing above $139 a barrel in March, after the United States and Europe imposed sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a “special military operation.” Prices have slipped since then.

Separately, Indonesia’s state-owned oil and gas firm Pertamina bought 10 percent of Exxon Mobil’s stake in Iraq’s West Qurna 1 oilfield, increasing its share to 20 percent, while BOC bought 22.7 percent of the field.

In January, the Iraqi government gave its approval for the Iraqi National Oil Company to acquire Exxon Mobil Corp’s stake in the giant West Qurna 1 oilfield.

West Qurna 1, in southern Iraq, is one of the world’s largest oilfields with recoverable reserves estimated at more than 20 billion barrels. It produces around 550,000 barrels per day, Mohammed said.

State-run Basra Oil Company told Reuters last year Exxon was seeking to sell its 32.7 percent stake in the field for $350 million.

OPEC’s second-largest oil producer can increase its export capacity by 3 million barrels per day (bpd) if within two years Iraq upgrades its key undersea oil exports pipelines and its two onshore ports, Mohammed said.

He also said a third oil pipeline at the Khor al-Amaya oil terminal in southern Iraq and a fifth single point mooring (spm) will be operational with capacity of 1 million barrels per day by the end of 2024.

Iraq’s exports 3.3 million barrels per day. China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corp (CPECC) has won a $300 million contract to build an energy station at giant Rumaila oilfield in Iraq, he added.

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Euro Zone Poised to Enter Trade Quagmire as Trump Wins

A container ship unloads its cargo in the German port of Hamburg (Reuters)
A container ship unloads its cargo in the German port of Hamburg (Reuters)
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Euro Zone Poised to Enter Trade Quagmire as Trump Wins

A container ship unloads its cargo in the German port of Hamburg (Reuters)
A container ship unloads its cargo in the German port of Hamburg (Reuters)

As Trump 2.0 becomes a reality, Europe is poised to enter a new geopolitical and trade quagmire with its biggest trading partner.

Donald Trump's victory may harm Europe's economy as proposed 10% US tariffs risk hitting European exports such as cars and chemicals, eroding Europe's GDP by up to 1.5% or about €260 billion.

Analysts warn of European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts, euro weakness, and a recession risk.

According to several economic analyses, there is broad agreement that Trump's proposed 10% universal tariff on all US imports may significantly disrupt European growth, intensify monetary policy divergence, and strain key trade-dependent sectors such as autos and chemicals.

The long-term effects on Europe's economic resilience could prove even more significant if tariffs lead to protracted trade conflicts, prompting the European Central Bank (ECB) to respond with aggressive rate cuts to cushion the impact, according to Euronews.

Trump's proposed across-the-board tariff on imports, including those from Europe, could profoundly impact sectors such as cars and chemicals, which rely heavily on US exports.

Data from the European Commission shows that the European Union exported €502.3 billion in goods to the US in 2023, making up a fifth of all non-European Union exports.

European exports to the US are led by machinery and vehicles (€207.6 billion), chemicals (€137.4 billion), and other manufactured goods (€103.7 billion), which together comprise nearly 90% of the bloc's transatlantic exports.

ABN Amro analysts, including head of macro research Bill Diviney, warn that tariffs “would cause a collapse in exports to the US,” with trade-oriented economies such as Germany and the Netherlands likely to be hardest hit.

According to the Dutch bank, Trump's tariffs would shave approximately 1.5 percentage points off European growth, translating to a potential €260 bn economic loss based on Europe's estimated 2024 GDP of €17.4 tn.

Should Europe's growth falter under Trump's tariffs, the European Central Bank (ECB) may be compelled to respond aggressively, slashing rates to near zero by 2025.

In contrast, the US Federal Reserve may continue raising rates, leading to “one of the biggest and most sustained monetary policy divergences” between the ECB and the Fed since the euro's inception in 1999.

Dirk Schumacher, head of European macro research at Natixis Corporate & Investment Banking Germany, suggests that a 10% tariff increase could reduce GDP by approximately 0.5% in Germany, 0.3% in France, 0.4% in Italy, and 0.2% in Spain.

Schumacher warns that “the euro area could slide into recession in response to higher tariffs.”

According to Goldman Sachs' economists James Moberly and Sven Jari Stehn, the broad tariff would likely erode eurozone GDP by approximately 1%.

Goldman Sachs analysts project that a 1% GDP loss translates into a hit to earnings per share (EPS) for European firms by 6-7 percentage points, which would be sufficient to erase expected EPS growth for 2025.