Russia in Syria, a Double-Edged Sword

 The presidents of Russia, Iran and Turkey in Tehran on July 19 (EPA)
The presidents of Russia, Iran and Turkey in Tehran on July 19 (EPA)
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Russia in Syria, a Double-Edged Sword

 The presidents of Russia, Iran and Turkey in Tehran on July 19 (EPA)
The presidents of Russia, Iran and Turkey in Tehran on July 19 (EPA)

What will happen if the United States decided to suddenly withdraw from northeastern Syria? What if Turkey carried out its threats and launched an attack in the north of the country?

What if a secret deal was made to hand over Deir Ezzor oil fields to Damascus in exchange for information from the latter about the missing US journalist Austin Tice?

In fact, Russia uses these scenarios to push opponents and belligerents to search for specific arrangements and to fill the American vacuum. Moscow is always trying to make a balance between the enemies. It uses Syria as a platform for negotiating goals on other issues in the region and the world. It has been doing this for years between Iran and Israel. It made some settlements in southern Syria, without reaching a final deal in the country. It doesn’t seek to stop the Iranian positioning and drones through the supply borders. It does not operate its missile systems against bombardment coming from Tel Aviv.

This equation has become known, although it is marred by several threats and limitations, the latest of which is the current tension between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid due to the latter’s statements about Russian “war crimes” in Ukraine and Moscow’s pressure on the Jewish Agency in Russia.

Therefore, the recent Israeli bombardment against Syrian targets and “Iranian drones” was a sign of Lapid’s determination to implement the “red lines.”

Since the direct intervention at the end of 2015, the Russian policy in Syria has been a “two-edged sword.” It promoted militarization between enemies and barely focused on politics. It reached compromises with foreign parties and disregarded the Syrian side. It used media and politics to cover the military option and the requirements of security proposals. In the three Syrian “states” under the “Russian umbrella,” arrangements were made between Washington and Moscow, Ankara and Moscow, Tel Aviv and Moscow, and between Tehran and Moscow.

There is also a fictional political line between the Syrian parties. It was tied in Geneva before Moscow decided to cut it off due to Switzerland’s stance in support of Ukraine.

What’s new about the “two-edged policy” is the secret Russian maneuver between Damascus and Ankara, and between Damascus and Qamishli. How?

Following a state of confusion and reluctance that prevailed over the former US administration, in the wake of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, President Joe Biden’s administration showed more stability in its military survival in northeastern Syria. But it is important to stop at three developments:

First, after the attack on Ukraine, the Russian army has tried to test its US counterpart, pushing Washington to bilateral political and military dialogues and seeking to break the isolation because of Ukraine, knowing that a military agreement has been regulating their relationship in Syria since 2017.

Second, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to take advantage of the growing importance of his role because of the “Ukraine swamp” to deal a severe blow to the Kurds in northern Syria.

Third, Biden promised the family of Tice to communicate directly with President Bashar al-Assad’s team in search of information about the journalist, who has been missing for nearly a decade.

Among the ideas that are currently circulated is handing over Deir Ezzor oil to Damascus as a negotiating start, taking into consideration that Trump’s envoys had offered, in the summer of 2019, military withdrawals from northeastern Syria in exchange for the release of Tice.

In these signs, Moscow found an opportunity. It organized private security talks between Damascus and Ankara, aimed at reaching arrangements and cooperation between the two parties against the PKK and terrorism in northern Syria.

One of the options that are actually on the table is the revival of the Adana Agreement, which was signed in 1998 and allowed the Turkish army to penetrate five kilometers into the Syrian depth to chase Kurdish fighters.

Undoubtedly, Syria has changed, so did the region and the world. Russian-led negotiations aim to search for a modified version of the agreement. There is no doubt that the tripartite summit in Tehran, which was marked by the visit of Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Meqdad, gave an additional impetus to the Ankara-Damascus line under Moscow’s cover.

What is remarkable and unsurprising is that Moscow is sponsoring in parallel another agreement between Damascus and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), in which the first line of mediation is supposed to be against the SDF main component, the Kurdish People’s Protection Units.

Here, the Hmeimim base sponsored talks to implement a memorandum of understanding that was completed in October 2019 between the commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces, Mazloum Abdi, and the director of national security, Major General Ali Mamlouk. Back then, the SDF hesitated to implement all the terms of the memorandum after the US agreed to postpone the withdrawal and extend the stay.

Now, the SDF is ready to implement these provisions. Up to 574 Syrian soldiers have been deployed in various areas near Al-Malikiyah, the Syrian-Iraqi-Turkish triangle, Ain Al-Arab (Kobani), Ain Issa and Manbij in the countryside of Aleppo, with the aim to form a deterrent force against Turkish desires.

In parallel, Western capitals are considering the need to start developing a “Plan B” in case of a military withdrawal, to prevent the recurrence of the Afghanistan experience.

The West is also advising the SDF to search for agreements and arrangements with Damascus, “because we will leave sooner or later.” As for Damascus, information indicates that no political talks will be held imminently. Military arrangements are possible, but political concessions are out of the question.

It is true that negotiations between Damascus and Qamishli in 2018, revealed differences over the future of the SDF, the Autonomous Administration, the border crossings, the language and symbols; but so far, Damascus is still reluctant to accept the Russian solutions, which Moscow repeat on every occasion.

The US conducted exercises, alerts, landings and assassinations east of the Euphrates. Israel bombed Iranian drones near Damascus. Turkish planes bombarded Kurdish targets in northern Syria, while opposition drones targeted the Hmeimim base in the west of the country.

Russian planes bombed the “Turkish region” in the northwest of the country. All of this is taking place in Syria, hours after the tripartite summit in Tehran and the Turkish mediation between Ukraine and Russia to conclude a “grain deal,” and Moscow’s success in “burying” the intra-Syrian Geneva process.

Intricate elements further complicate the Syrian puzzle, maximizing the suffering and the illusions of Syrian fates.



Israeli Raids Displaced Tens of Thousands in the West Bank. Now Few Places to Shelter Remain 

Boys sit by during the funeral of 18-year-old Palestinian Malik Hattab who was killed the previous day after succumbing to injuries sustained during an Israeli raid on the Jalazun camp for Palestinian refugees north of Ramallah in the occupied West Bank, at the camp on April 15, 2025. (AFP) 
Boys sit by during the funeral of 18-year-old Palestinian Malik Hattab who was killed the previous day after succumbing to injuries sustained during an Israeli raid on the Jalazun camp for Palestinian refugees north of Ramallah in the occupied West Bank, at the camp on April 15, 2025. (AFP) 
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Israeli Raids Displaced Tens of Thousands in the West Bank. Now Few Places to Shelter Remain 

Boys sit by during the funeral of 18-year-old Palestinian Malik Hattab who was killed the previous day after succumbing to injuries sustained during an Israeli raid on the Jalazun camp for Palestinian refugees north of Ramallah in the occupied West Bank, at the camp on April 15, 2025. (AFP) 
Boys sit by during the funeral of 18-year-old Palestinian Malik Hattab who was killed the previous day after succumbing to injuries sustained during an Israeli raid on the Jalazun camp for Palestinian refugees north of Ramallah in the occupied West Bank, at the camp on April 15, 2025. (AFP) 

For weeks, the family had been on the move. Israeli troops had forced them from home during a military operation that has displaced tens of thousands of Palestinians across the occupied West Bank. After finding shelter in a wedding hall, they were told to leave again.

"We don’t know where we’ll go," said the family's 52-year-old matriarch, who did not want to be identified for fear of reprisal. She buried her face in her hands.

The grandmother is one of more than 1,500 displaced people in and around the northern city of Tulkarem who are being pushed from schools, youth centers and other venues because the people who run them need them back. It was not clear how many displaced in other areas like Jenin face the same pressure.

Many say they have nowhere else to go. Israeli forces destroyed some homes.

The cash-strapped Palestinian Authority, which administers parts of the West Bank, has little to offer. The UN agency for Palestinian refugees, the largest aid provider in the occupied territories, struggles to meet greater needs in the Gaza Strip while facing Israeli restrictions on its operations.

Approximately 40,000 Palestinians were driven from their homes in January and February in the largest displacement in the West Bank since Israel captured the territory in the 1967 Mideast war.

Israel says the operations are needed to stamp out militancy as violence by all sides has surged since Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack ignited the war in Gaza.

Fears of long-term displacement Israel's raids have emptied out and largely destroyed several urban refugee camps in the northern West Bank, like Tulkarem and nearby Nur Shams, that housed the descendants of Palestinians who fled or were driven from their homes in previous wars.

Israel says troops will stay in some camps for a year.

People with means are living with relatives or renting apartments, while the impoverished have sought refuge in public buildings. Now that the Muslim holy month of Ramadan has ended, many are being told to leave.

"This is a big problem for us, as the schools cannot be used for the displaced because there are students in them, and at the same time, we have a shortage of financial resources," said Abdallah Kmeil, the governor of Tulkarem.

He said the Palestinian Authority is looking for empty homes to rent to families and plans to bring prefabricated containers for some 20,000 displaced. But it’s unclear when they will arrive.

Seven minutes to pack

The matriarch said Israeli troops gave the family seven minutes to pack when they evicted them from the Nur Shams camp in early February. They left with backpacks and a white flag to signal they weren't a threat.

Shelters were overcrowded. People slept on floor mats with little privacy, and dozens at times shared a few toilets and a shower.

The family tried to return home when soldiers allowed people to go back and get their belongings. Days later, they were forced to leave again, and soldiers warned that their house would be burned if they didn’t, the woman said.

The family found a charity center that doubles as a wedding hall in a nearby town. Now, with the onset of wedding season, they have had to leave.

When the family feels homesick, they walk to a hilltop overlooking Nur Shams.

Palestinians sheltering in and around Tulkarem say they feel abandoned. Much of the aid they were receiving, such as food and clothes, came from the community during Ramadan, a time of increased charity. Now that has dried up.

Israel's crackdown in the West Bank has also left tens of thousands unemployed. They can no longer work the mostly menial jobs in Israel that paid higher wages, making it harder to rent scarce places to stay.

Iman Basher used to work on a Palestinian farm near her house in Nur Shams. Since fleeing, the day's walk there is too far to travel, she said. The 64-year-old was among dozens of people recently forced from another wedding hall. She now sleeps on a mat in another packed building.

Basher said soldiers raiding her house stole about $2,000, money she had been saving for more than a decade for her children’s education.

An Israeli military spokesperson said the army prohibits the theft or wanton destruction of civilian property and holds soldiers accountable for what it called "exceptional" violations. The army said gunmen fight and plant explosives in residential areas, and soldiers sometimes occupy homes to combat them.

‘The scale of the displacement is beyond us’

Aid groups said some displaced people are living in unfinished buildings, without proper clothes, hygiene, bedding or access to healthcare.

"It’s hard to find where the need is ... The scale of the displacement is beyond us," said Nicholas Papachrysostomou, emergency coordinator in the northern West Bank for Doctors Without Borders.

The charity's mobile clinics provide primary healthcare, but there’s a shortage of medicine and it’s hard to get supplies because of Israeli restrictions and financial constraints by the West Bank's health ministry, he said.

The UN agency for Palestinian refugees, known as UNRWA, plans to disburse $265 a month to about 30,000 of the most vulnerable displaced people, but there is enough money for only three months, said Hanadi Jaber Abu Taqa, head of UNRWA in the northern West Bank.

The agency's money mostly goes to Gaza. Just over 12% of the funds it seeks from donors for this year will be allocated to the West Bank.

Portable housing for the many displaced would only be a temporary fix. Some Palestinians said they wouldn't accept it, worrying it would feel like giving up their right to return home.

Isam Sadooq had been helping 60 displaced people staying at a youth center in Tulkarem. Last month, he was told, by the people who run the center, that they should consider evacuating so children can resume sports.

"If we cannot find them another place to live, what will be their fate?" he said. "They will find themselves in the street, and this is something we do not accept."