Tunisia President Hails Vote Set to Bolster Rule

Supporters of President Kais Saied rejoice on Habib Bourguiba Avenue after early estimates point to an almost certain victory, in Tunis, July 26, 2022. (AFP)
Supporters of President Kais Saied rejoice on Habib Bourguiba Avenue after early estimates point to an almost certain victory, in Tunis, July 26, 2022. (AFP)
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Tunisia President Hails Vote Set to Bolster Rule

Supporters of President Kais Saied rejoice on Habib Bourguiba Avenue after early estimates point to an almost certain victory, in Tunis, July 26, 2022. (AFP)
Supporters of President Kais Saied rejoice on Habib Bourguiba Avenue after early estimates point to an almost certain victory, in Tunis, July 26, 2022. (AFP)

President Kais Saied said Tuesday that Tunisia was moving "from despair to hope" after a referendum almost certain to approve a new constitution that concentrates nearly all powers in his office.

But his rivals accused the Saied-controlled ISIE electoral board of "fraud" and said his referendum -- which was marked by a turnout of little more than a quarter of the 9.3 million electorate -- had "failed".

Monday's vote came a year to the day after Saied sacked the government and suspended parliament in what was perceived as a blow to the gains made after the 2011 revolution.

For some Tunisians, his moves sparked fears of a return to autocracy, but they were welcomed by others, fed up with high inflation and unemployment, political corruption and a system they felt had brought few improvements.

There had been little doubt the "Yes" campaign would win, and an exit poll suggested that votes cast were overwhelmingly in favor.

Most of Saied's rivals called for a boycott, and while turnout was low, it was higher than the single figures many had expected -- at least 27.5 percent, according to the electoral board.

"Tunisia has entered a new phase," Saied told celebrating supporters after polling closed.

"What the Tunisian people did... is a lesson to the world, and a lesson to history on a scale that the lessons of history are measured on," he said.

The National Salvation Front opposition alliance accused the electoral board of falsifying turnout figures.

Its head, Ahmed Nejib Chebbi, said the figures were "inflated and don't fit with what observers saw on the ground".

ISIE "isn't honest and impartial, and its figures are fraudulent," he said.

'New step'

Saied, a 64-year-old law professor, dissolved parliament and seized control of the judiciary and the electoral commission on July 25 last year.

His opponents say the moves aimed to install an autocracy, while his supporters say they were necessary after years of corruption and political turmoil.

"After 10 years of disappointment and total failure in the management of state and the economy, the Tunisian people wanted to get rid of the old and take a new step, whatever the results are," said Noureddine al-Rezgui, a bailiff.

A poll of "Yes" voters by state television suggested "reforming the country and improving the situation" along with "support for Kais Saied/his project" were their main motivations.

Thirteen percent cited being "convinced by the new constitution".

Rights groups have warned the draft gives vast, unchecked powers to the presidency, allows him to appoint a government without parliamentary approval and makes him virtually impossible to remove from office.

Said Benarbia, regional director of the International Commission of Jurists, told AFP the new constitution would "give the president almost all powers and dismantle any check on his rule".

Moreover, low turnout means "any resulting constitution would not reflect the views of the majority of Tunisians and would lack democratic legitimacy and national ownership," he added.

"The process was opaque and illegal, the outcome is illegitimate."

Saied has repeatedly threatened his enemies in recent months, issuing video diatribes against unnamed foes he describes as "germs", "snakes" and "traitors".

On Monday, he promised to hold to account "all those who have committed crimes against the country".

'Back on the rails'

Analyst Abdellatif Hannachi said the results meant Saied "can now do whatever he wants without taking anyone else into account."

"The question now is: what is the future of opposition parties and organizations?"

As well as remaking the political system, Monday's vote was seen as a gauge of Saied's personal popularity, almost three years since the political outsider won a landslide in Tunisia's first democratic direct presidential election.

Hassen Zargouni, head of pollster Sigma Conseil, said that off 7,500 participants questioned, 92-93 percent voted "Yes".

He said turnout was "quite good" given some two million people have been automatically added to electoral rolls since the 2019 legislative election.

Participation in elections has gradually declined since the 2011 revolution, from just over half in a parliamentary poll months after Zine El Abidine Ben Ali's overthrow to 32 percent in 2019.

Those who voted "Yes" on Monday did so primarily to "put the country back on the rails and improve the situation," Zargouni said.

Tunis resident Aziz Benrizq, 22, agreed.

"God willing, things will get easier and the situation in the country will improve," he said.



Reports: ISIS Regains Its Activities in Syria

ISIS fighters/file photo (AFP) 
ISIS fighters/file photo (AFP) 
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Reports: ISIS Regains Its Activities in Syria

ISIS fighters/file photo (AFP) 
ISIS fighters/file photo (AFP) 

Recent developments in Syria indicate that the ISIS group has reportedly made a comeback to the country after its presence has deteriorated in the past years.

According to UN and US officials, ISIS has shown renewed vigor in Syria, attracting fighters and increasing attacks, adding to the volatility of a country still reeling since the fall of President Bashar al-Assad, The New York Times reported on Wednesday.

In a proactive step to reduce the immediate risk of the terrorist organization, Washington had roughly doubled the number of its troops on the ground in Syria, to 2,000, and its many strikes on ISIS in the Syrian desert in the last few months appear to have tamped down the immediate threat.

But experts said those measures won’t be enough if the threat of ISIS isn't dealt with at its roots.

They said there is a risk that ISIS can find a way to free thousands of its hardened fighters who are held in prisons guarded by US-backed Syrian Kurdish forces in northeast Syria.

The Times showed that between 9,000 and 10,000 ISIS fighters and about 40,000 of their family members are detained in northeastern Syria. Their escape would not only add to the group’s numbers but also provide a propaganda coup.

“The crown jewel” for ISIS “is still the prisons and camps,” Colin Clarke, the head of research for the Soufan Group, a global intelligence and security firm, told The Times.

Top US intelligence officials last month presented to Congress their annual worldwide threat assessment, concluding that ISIS would try to exploit the end of the Assad government to free prisoners and to revive its ability to plot and carry out attacks.

The US has hopes that the new Syrian government will become a partner against a resurgent ISIS. The initial signs were positive, with the group acting on US-provided intelligence to disrupt eight ISIS plots in Damascus, according to two senior US military officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive operations.

But sectarian-driven violence last month, in which hundreds of civilians were killed, showed the government’s lack of control over some forces nominally under its command, and it is unclear how much bandwidth it will have to fight ISIS, The Time wrote.

ISIS, which traces its beginnings to Al Qaeda in Iraq, is not a threat from the past anymore. According to a US defense department official who spoke anonymously to discuss information that has not yet been released publicly, the group claimed 294 attacks in 2024, up from the 121 it claimed in 2023. The UN ISIS monitoring committee estimated about 400 attacks, while human rights observers in Syria said the number was even higher.

The group’s resurgence reinforces concerns of renewed bloody scenarios, especially since ISIS exploited the chaos of Syria’s civil war to seize vast swaths of territory and return to Iraq.

The Times said concerns over a possible prison escape by ISIS detainees have been heightened by ongoing violence in the northeast.

The detention centers in northeastern Syria are guarded by the Kurdish-led fighters, the Syrian Democratic Forces, who also help guard the nearby camps that hold ISIS family members. But those forces have been distracted by attacks from Turkish-backed militias.

The prisons have already proven to be a concern. In 2022, nearly 400 ISIS-linked prisoners escaped during an ISIS assault on a prison in the city of Hasaka. At the time, US Special Operations forces helped the Syrian Democratic Forces get control of the situation.

In Al Hol, the largest camp where ISIS women and children have been held for years, the extremist group has been testing the boundaries.

In a recent report, a UN committee said the chaos surrounding the fall of al-Assad allowed some ISIS fighters to escape the camp, although it was not clear how many.

If the Syrian Kurds are weakened, “there is no question that it will create a vacuum,” said Kawa Hassan, an Iraqi analyst and a nonresident fellow at the Stimson Center, a nonpartisan organization in Washington. “And only ISIS thrives in a vacuum.”

A comprehensive strategy that goes beyond airstrikes and the presence of foreign troops is currently needed in Syria. This strategy should address the root causes of the return of extremism to ensure that ISIS will not use prisons and camps to launch its violent activities that has long been the main driver of chaos and destruction in the Middle East.