More Protests or Fresh Polls? Iraq Mulls Political Paralysis

Supporters of the Iraqi cleric Moqtada Sadr gather inside the Iraqi parliament in the capital Baghdad's high-security Green Zone, as they protest at a rival bloc's nomination for prime minister, on July 27, 2022. (AFP)
Supporters of the Iraqi cleric Moqtada Sadr gather inside the Iraqi parliament in the capital Baghdad's high-security Green Zone, as they protest at a rival bloc's nomination for prime minister, on July 27, 2022. (AFP)
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More Protests or Fresh Polls? Iraq Mulls Political Paralysis

Supporters of the Iraqi cleric Moqtada Sadr gather inside the Iraqi parliament in the capital Baghdad's high-security Green Zone, as they protest at a rival bloc's nomination for prime minister, on July 27, 2022. (AFP)
Supporters of the Iraqi cleric Moqtada Sadr gather inside the Iraqi parliament in the capital Baghdad's high-security Green Zone, as they protest at a rival bloc's nomination for prime minister, on July 27, 2022. (AFP)

The storming of Iraq's parliament by hundreds of supporters of Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr has piled pressure on his political opponents working to form a government nearly 10 months after an election.

"Neither side is willing to make any concessions," political scientist Ali al-Baidar said Thursday, one day after crowds breached Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone and staged a parliamentary sit-in, waving flags and demanding change.

The protests are the latest challenge for oil-rich Iraq, which remains mired in a political and a socioeconomic crisis despite soaring energy prices.

Is Iraq heading towards more protests and a deepening crisis? Or will it be obliged to hold fresh polls?

What were protests about?

Sadr's bloc won 73 seats in October last year, making it the largest faction in the 329-seat parliament.

But it was still far short of a majority.

In multi-confessional and multi-ethnic Iraq, the formation of governments has involved complex negotiations since the 2003 US-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein.

By convention, the post of prime minister goes to a leader from Iraq's Shiite population.

Sadr had initially supported the idea of a "majority government".

That would have sent his Shiite adversaries from the pro-Iran Coordination Framework into opposition.

The Coordination Framework draws lawmakers from former premier Nouri al-Maliki's party and the pro-Iran Fatah Alliance, the political arm of the Shiite-led former paramilitary group Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).

But last month Sadr's 73 lawmakers quit in a move seen as seeking to pressure his rivals to fast-track the establishment of a government.

Sixty-four new lawmakers were sworn in later in June, making the pro-Iran bloc the largest in parliament.

On Wednesday, Sadr's supporters stormed parliament to protest at Coordination Framework's nomination for prime minister, Mohammed al-Sudani.

It was clear message from Sadr to his rivals "that there will be no government... without his agreement," said the political scientist Baidar.

"Via the masses, he signifies that he is an active player in the political landscape, that all must respect his positions and opinions, that nothing can be done without Sadr's blessing."

Can the rivals agree?

"This is going to be longest government formation process," said Renad Mansour of British think tank Chatham House.

Mansour said the protests were Sadr's warning that he aims to "use street power to bring down his opponents' attempts to form a government".

The protesters on Wednesday left peacefully after nearly two hours inside parliament -- after Sadr issued messages calling for them to go home, saying they had "terrorized the corrupt".

But it was far from the first Sadr has encourage protest to show his strength on the streets.

Earlier this month, hundreds of thousands of Muslim worshippers loyal to Sadr attended a Friday prayer service in Baghdad in a display of political might.

Baidar fears "the situation is heading for further escalation," noting that Sadr's rivals are in a tough position too.

"The Coordination Framework risks being weakened if it presents an alternative candidate to satisfy Sadr", he argued.

But Mansour said the Framework was riven with "many internal rivalries".

Some members are "worried about working without Sadr" because without his backing, such protests as happened on Wednesday "would become a reality to the future government, when and if it is eventually formed."

Will there be fresh elections?

One option could be to hold fresh elections.

"That's definitely something that has become more realistic after the recent developments," said Mansour.

"The Sadrists are hoping that by showing themselves as an opposition force instead of being in the government... could actually attract more votes."

But political scientist Ihsan al-Shammari, from the University of Baghdad, said that under pressure from Sadr, the current assembly could be paralyzed.

"Part of Sadr's strategy is to besiege parliament," he said, suggesting Sadrists could organize a sit-in at parliament or launch a campaign of civil disobedience.

Storming parliament was "only the first step," said Shammari. "The message is clear, Sadr and his supporters are ready to go further than that."



Climate Change-Worsened Floods Wreak Havoc in Africa

People carry possessions on a pirogue over flood water flowing over a main road in Odobere on October 22, 2024. (AFP)
People carry possessions on a pirogue over flood water flowing over a main road in Odobere on October 22, 2024. (AFP)
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Climate Change-Worsened Floods Wreak Havoc in Africa

People carry possessions on a pirogue over flood water flowing over a main road in Odobere on October 22, 2024. (AFP)
People carry possessions on a pirogue over flood water flowing over a main road in Odobere on October 22, 2024. (AFP)

Every rainy season for the past 12 years, floods have swept through 67-year-old Idris Egbunu's house in central Nigeria.

It is always the same story -- the Niger River bursts its banks and the waters claim his home for weeks on end, until he can return and take stock of the damage.

The house then needs cleaning, repairs, fumigation and repainting, until the next rainy season.

Flooding is almost inevitable around Lokoja in Nigeria's Kogi state, where Africa's third-longest river meets its main tributary, the Benue.

But across vast areas of Africa, climate change has thrown weather patterns into disarray and made flooding much more severe, especially this year.

Devastating inundations are threatening the survival of millions of residents on the continent. Homes have been wrecked and crops ruined, jeopardizing regional food security.

Torrential rains and severe flooding have affected around 6.9 million people in West and Central Africa so far in 2024, according to data from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA).

- 'Very, very bad' -

Residents and officials around Lokoja said floods first became more severe in Kogi state in 2012 and have battered the area each year since.

In 2022, Nigeria's worst floods in a decade killed more than 500 people and displaced 1.4 million.

Sandra Musa, an emergency agency adviser to the Kogi state governor, believes this year's flooding has not yet reached the level seen in 2022, but warned it was "very, very bad".

"Usually at this time of year the water level drops, but here it's rising again," she told AFP, estimating that the floods have affected around two million people in the state.

Fatima Bilyaminu, a 31-year-old mother and shopkeeper, can only get to her house in the Adankolo district of Lokoja by boat as a result of the waters.

The swollen river rises almost to the windows, while water hyacinths float past the crumbling building.

"I lost everything. My bed, my cushioned chair, my wardrobe, my kitchen equipment," she told AFP.

With no money to rent a house elsewhere, she has little choice but to keep living in the small concrete building and repair it, flood after flood.

- Damage and displacement -

Africa is bearing the brunt of climate change, even though it only contributes around four percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to a recent report by the World Meteorological Organization.

This year is set to overtake 2023 as the world's hottest on record.

"This year has been unusual in terms of the amount of rainfall, with many extreme events, which is one of the signs of climate change," said Aida Diongue-Niang from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

In the Sahel region bordering the Sahara desert, the volume, intensity and duration of rainfall was "unprecedented," according to Amadou Diakite from the Mali Meteo weather service.

In Niger, some regions recorded up to 200 percent more rain than in previous years, the national meteorological service said. The waters put at risk the historic city center of Agadez, a UNESCO World Heritage site in the desert north.

Over the border in Chad, torrential rains since July have killed at least 576 people and affected 1.9 million, more than 10 percent of the population, according to a report published by the OCHA.

In neighboring Cameroon, the UN body said torrential rains had destroyed more than 56,000 homes and flooded tens of thousands of hectares of crops.

Floodwaters swept through the capital Conakry in Guinea, while floods in Monrovia reignited debates over building another city to serve as Liberia's capital.

Entire districts of Mali's capital Bamako were submerged, leaving waste and liquid from septic tanks seeping across the streets.

In August, downpours caused the roof of the centuries-old Tomb of Askia in the Malian city of Gao to collapse.

Several countries have postponed the start of the school year as a result of the floods.

- 'Keep getting worse' -

"It used to be a decadal cycle of flooding, and we're now into a yearly cycle," said Clair Barnes, a researcher at the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London.

"This is only going to keep getting worse if we keep burning fossil fuels," she said.

As global temperatures rise, extreme weather events will increase in frequency and intensity, scientists warn.

Experts estimate that by 2030, up to 118 million Africans already living in poverty will be exposed to drought, floods and intense heat.

Building along riverbanks also poses a risk, Youssouf Sane of Senegal's meteorology agency said, urging governments to think about the relationship between climate change and urbanization.

But the IPCC's Diongue-Niang said the only way to tackle extreme weather was to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

"That doesn't fall to the region -- it falls to the whole of humanity," she said.