What’s Driving the Power Struggle in Iraq?

31 July 2022, Iraq, Baghdad: Supporters of Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr occupy a hall inside the Iraqi parliament after they broke into the building on Saturday amid political deadlock in the country. (dpa)
31 July 2022, Iraq, Baghdad: Supporters of Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr occupy a hall inside the Iraqi parliament after they broke into the building on Saturday amid political deadlock in the country. (dpa)
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What’s Driving the Power Struggle in Iraq?

31 July 2022, Iraq, Baghdad: Supporters of Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr occupy a hall inside the Iraqi parliament after they broke into the building on Saturday amid political deadlock in the country. (dpa)
31 July 2022, Iraq, Baghdad: Supporters of Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr occupy a hall inside the Iraqi parliament after they broke into the building on Saturday amid political deadlock in the country. (dpa)

A power struggle in Iraq between the influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and Iran-backed Shiite rivals has escalated with his supporters breaking into parliament and beginning an open-ended sit-in protest.

The tussle over who gets to form the next government has deepened a fissure in the Shiite community that has dominated Iraqi politics since the US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003.

What is the background to the rivalry, why has it escalated, what does this mean for Iraq and what are the risks of violence?

Who are Sadr and his rivals?

Heir to a prominent clerical dynasty, Sadr is a populist with a fiercely loyal support base and a track record of radical action, including fighting US forces after the invasion and clashing with Iraqi authorities.

He commanded a powerful militia, the Mehdi Army, in the years after the invasion, but officially disbanded it in 2008. Its successor, the Peace Brigades, retains thousands of armed fighters.

He exercises big sway in the state, where his supporters hold many positions. He has emphasized his credentials as an Iraqi nationalist in recent years, opposing the influence of both the United States and Iran.

His Shiite rivals form an alliance called the Coordination Framework, which includes Tehran-aligned politicians such as former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki and paramilitary groups armed and trained by Iran.

Each side accuses the other of corruption.

Why has the standoff escalated?

Tensions have worsened since an October election in which Sadr's movement emerged as the biggest bloc with 74 of parliament's 329 seats and the Iran-backed factions' share slumped to 17 from a previous 48.

After failing to overturn the result in the courts, the Iran-backed factions set about stymying Sadr's efforts to form a government that would include his Kurdish and Sunni Arab allies but exclude groups he described as corrupt or loyal to Tehran.

Despite their diminished numbers in parliament, the Iran-aligned groups managed to frustrate Sadr by denying the two-thirds quorum needed to elect a Kurdish head of state - the first step towards forming a government.

Frustrated at the deadlock, Sadr instructed his lawmakers to quit parliament in June. The move ceded dozens of seats to the Coordination Framework, meaning it could try to form a government of its choosing, though this would risk Sadr's wrath.

Eyeing a comeback, Sadr rival Maliki put himself forward to be prime minister - a post that must go to a Shiite in Iraq's political system - but retreated after Sadr criticized him on Twitter.

Sadr's rivals then floated another candidate, Mohammed Shiya al-Sudani, seen by Sadr's supporters as a Maliki loyalist. This step appears to have been the final straw for Sadr supporters, igniting the protests.

What does this mean for Iraq?

Iraq has now gone more than nine months without a new government - a record in the post-Saddam era.

The standoff adds to political dysfunction in a country suffering dire public services, high poverty and widespread unemployment despite huge oil wealth and no major conflict since ISIS’s defeat five years ago.

At a time when soaring crude prices have boosted Iraq's oil revenues to record highs, the government has no budget for 2022 and spending on much-needed infrastructure projects and economic reforms has been delayed.

Ordinary Iraqis meanwhile suffer power and water cuts. The World Food Program says 2.4 million of the population of 39 million are in acute need of food and livelihood assistance.

The paralysis is diverting attention from problems including soaring global food prices, drought and the lingering threat posed by ISIS.

Outgoing Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi continues in a caretaker role for now.

What are the chances of violence?

A call by the Coordination Framework for its supporters to rally on Sunday gave rise to concerns of confrontation in the streets, but it then cancelled the demonstrations.

The United Nations has called for a de-escalation, saying "voices of reason and wisdom are critical to prevent further violence". Many Iraqi leaders have also called for the preservation of civil peace.

Sadr has vowed peaceful political action, but is backed up by the armed Peace Brigades and many of his civilian followers keep weapons, stoking fears of armed clashes if the standoff escalates.

Conflict among Iraqi Shiites would be bad news for Iran, which has carved out major influence in Iraq through its Shiite allies since the United States toppled its foe Saddam.

Iran, which has yet to comment on the latest developments, has previously intervened to quell internal unrest in Iraq.



Nawaf Salam: Lebanon’s Prime Minister ‘Judge’ in Joseph Aoun’s First Term in Office

Lebanese Ambassador to the United Nations Nawaf Salam speaks to reporters after Security Council consultations on the situation in Libya, March 14, 2011 at United Nations headquarters. (AP)
Lebanese Ambassador to the United Nations Nawaf Salam speaks to reporters after Security Council consultations on the situation in Libya, March 14, 2011 at United Nations headquarters. (AP)
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Nawaf Salam: Lebanon’s Prime Minister ‘Judge’ in Joseph Aoun’s First Term in Office

Lebanese Ambassador to the United Nations Nawaf Salam speaks to reporters after Security Council consultations on the situation in Libya, March 14, 2011 at United Nations headquarters. (AP)
Lebanese Ambassador to the United Nations Nawaf Salam speaks to reporters after Security Council consultations on the situation in Libya, March 14, 2011 at United Nations headquarters. (AP)

Years after his name had been suggested by the Lebanese opposition to become prime minister, Judge Nawaf Salam was finally tasked on Monday with the formation of a new government under newly elected President Joseph Aoun’s first term in office.

Salam, currently serving as the head of the International Court of Justice (ICJ), was nominated by the majority of lawmakers during consultations with Aoun.

Salam was born in Beirut on December 15, 1953. He was elected as head of the ICJ in February 2024.

His nomination as prime minister was first floated by the opposition in wake of the October 2019 anti-government protests, after the resignation of Saad Hariri as PM.

The opposition at the time had proposed him as a neutral-technocratic figure who was not affiliated with the current political class. His candidacy was “vetoed” by the Shiite duo of Hezbollah and its ally the Amal movement, headed by parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.

They deemed him as the “United States’ candidate” and effectively thwarted his nomination. Hassan Diab was appointed prime minister instead.

The duo had on Monday refrained from nominating any candidate for the position of prime minister.

Diab’s government resigned after the August 4, 2020, Beirut Port explosion. Salam was again suggested as prime minister, but an agreement between the majority of political blocs led to Mustafa Adib’s appointment with 90 votes.

Adib would step down days later due to differences over the formation of the government.

Throughout that time, Salam had not taken political sides, but expressed his appreciation for MPs who had suggested his nomination.

Call for reform

He stressed the need to “save Lebanon from its plight, which demands change in how crises are handled and how work should be done. This starts with the implementation of financial and political reforms, which should focus on confronting the mentality of clientelism and quotas.”

He also underlined the importance of establishing an independent judiciary and “fortifying state institutions against sectarianism and favoritism.”

“The reforms will be meaningless if they are not based on the principles of fairness, social justice and the protection of rights and public and private freedoms.”

He vowed that he will always work alongside figures who “are committed to change to reform the state and allow it to impose its sovereignty throughout its territory and restore Lebanon’s position in the Arab world and the world’s trust in it.”

Salam and the ICJ

Salam’s appointment as head of the ICJ had alarmed Israel. He had taken clear stances against Israel and openly supported the Palestinian cause.

Israel’s Jerusalem Post said he has a “long history in opposing Israel through his statements and stances.” It recalled a tweet aimed at Israel in 2015, in which he said: “Unhappy birthday to you, 48 years of occupation.”

Salam is a member of a prominent family from Beirut. His grandfather “Abou Ali” Salim Ali Salam (1868-1938) was a leading figure in the capital. He was a member of the Ottoman parliament and head of its municipality in 1908.

Nawaf’s father, Abdullah Salam, was a prominent businessman and one of the founders of Middle East Airlines, Lebanon’s national carrier.

One of his uncles is former Prime Minister Saeb Salam, who served in that post four times between 1952 and 1973. Tammam Salam is a cousin who served as prime minister twice between 2014 and 2016.

Nawaf Salam holds a doctorate in political science from France’s prestigious Sciences Po university as well as a doctorate in history from France’s Sorbonne University. He also has a Master of Laws degree from Harvard Law School. Salam has worked as a lecturer at several universities, including the American University of Beirut.

Prior to heading the ICJ, he served as Lebanon’s ambassador to the United Nations between 2007 and 2017. He also represented the country at the UN Security Council between 2010 and 2011.

His publications include “Lebanon Between Past and Future”, published in Beirut in 2021.