What’s Driving the Power Struggle in Iraq?

31 July 2022, Iraq, Baghdad: Supporters of Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr occupy a hall inside the Iraqi parliament after they broke into the building on Saturday amid political deadlock in the country. (dpa)
31 July 2022, Iraq, Baghdad: Supporters of Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr occupy a hall inside the Iraqi parliament after they broke into the building on Saturday amid political deadlock in the country. (dpa)
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What’s Driving the Power Struggle in Iraq?

31 July 2022, Iraq, Baghdad: Supporters of Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr occupy a hall inside the Iraqi parliament after they broke into the building on Saturday amid political deadlock in the country. (dpa)
31 July 2022, Iraq, Baghdad: Supporters of Iraq's influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr occupy a hall inside the Iraqi parliament after they broke into the building on Saturday amid political deadlock in the country. (dpa)

A power struggle in Iraq between the influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and Iran-backed Shiite rivals has escalated with his supporters breaking into parliament and beginning an open-ended sit-in protest.

The tussle over who gets to form the next government has deepened a fissure in the Shiite community that has dominated Iraqi politics since the US-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003.

What is the background to the rivalry, why has it escalated, what does this mean for Iraq and what are the risks of violence?

Who are Sadr and his rivals?

Heir to a prominent clerical dynasty, Sadr is a populist with a fiercely loyal support base and a track record of radical action, including fighting US forces after the invasion and clashing with Iraqi authorities.

He commanded a powerful militia, the Mehdi Army, in the years after the invasion, but officially disbanded it in 2008. Its successor, the Peace Brigades, retains thousands of armed fighters.

He exercises big sway in the state, where his supporters hold many positions. He has emphasized his credentials as an Iraqi nationalist in recent years, opposing the influence of both the United States and Iran.

His Shiite rivals form an alliance called the Coordination Framework, which includes Tehran-aligned politicians such as former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki and paramilitary groups armed and trained by Iran.

Each side accuses the other of corruption.

Why has the standoff escalated?

Tensions have worsened since an October election in which Sadr's movement emerged as the biggest bloc with 74 of parliament's 329 seats and the Iran-backed factions' share slumped to 17 from a previous 48.

After failing to overturn the result in the courts, the Iran-backed factions set about stymying Sadr's efforts to form a government that would include his Kurdish and Sunni Arab allies but exclude groups he described as corrupt or loyal to Tehran.

Despite their diminished numbers in parliament, the Iran-aligned groups managed to frustrate Sadr by denying the two-thirds quorum needed to elect a Kurdish head of state - the first step towards forming a government.

Frustrated at the deadlock, Sadr instructed his lawmakers to quit parliament in June. The move ceded dozens of seats to the Coordination Framework, meaning it could try to form a government of its choosing, though this would risk Sadr's wrath.

Eyeing a comeback, Sadr rival Maliki put himself forward to be prime minister - a post that must go to a Shiite in Iraq's political system - but retreated after Sadr criticized him on Twitter.

Sadr's rivals then floated another candidate, Mohammed Shiya al-Sudani, seen by Sadr's supporters as a Maliki loyalist. This step appears to have been the final straw for Sadr supporters, igniting the protests.

What does this mean for Iraq?

Iraq has now gone more than nine months without a new government - a record in the post-Saddam era.

The standoff adds to political dysfunction in a country suffering dire public services, high poverty and widespread unemployment despite huge oil wealth and no major conflict since ISIS’s defeat five years ago.

At a time when soaring crude prices have boosted Iraq's oil revenues to record highs, the government has no budget for 2022 and spending on much-needed infrastructure projects and economic reforms has been delayed.

Ordinary Iraqis meanwhile suffer power and water cuts. The World Food Program says 2.4 million of the population of 39 million are in acute need of food and livelihood assistance.

The paralysis is diverting attention from problems including soaring global food prices, drought and the lingering threat posed by ISIS.

Outgoing Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi continues in a caretaker role for now.

What are the chances of violence?

A call by the Coordination Framework for its supporters to rally on Sunday gave rise to concerns of confrontation in the streets, but it then cancelled the demonstrations.

The United Nations has called for a de-escalation, saying "voices of reason and wisdom are critical to prevent further violence". Many Iraqi leaders have also called for the preservation of civil peace.

Sadr has vowed peaceful political action, but is backed up by the armed Peace Brigades and many of his civilian followers keep weapons, stoking fears of armed clashes if the standoff escalates.

Conflict among Iraqi Shiites would be bad news for Iran, which has carved out major influence in Iraq through its Shiite allies since the United States toppled its foe Saddam.

Iran, which has yet to comment on the latest developments, has previously intervened to quell internal unrest in Iraq.



What Message is Hamas Sending by Resuming Rocket Fire on Israel?

Emergency personnel work at an impact scene following a hit by a rocket fired from the Gaza strip towards Israel, in Ashkelon, Israel April 6, 2025. REUTERS/Amir Cohen
Emergency personnel work at an impact scene following a hit by a rocket fired from the Gaza strip towards Israel, in Ashkelon, Israel April 6, 2025. REUTERS/Amir Cohen
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What Message is Hamas Sending by Resuming Rocket Fire on Israel?

Emergency personnel work at an impact scene following a hit by a rocket fired from the Gaza strip towards Israel, in Ashkelon, Israel April 6, 2025. REUTERS/Amir Cohen
Emergency personnel work at an impact scene following a hit by a rocket fired from the Gaza strip towards Israel, in Ashkelon, Israel April 6, 2025. REUTERS/Amir Cohen

The launch of 10 rockets by Hamas’s armed wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, toward Israel on Sunday surprised many observers, marking a sharp escalation in rocket fire that had largely been limited to one or two missiles since Israel broke a truce on March 18.

Most recent rocket attacks were believed to have come from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, but Sunday’s barrage was claimed by Hamas, signaling a possible shift in the dynamics of the conflict.

According to Israeli claims, the rockets were fired from the al-Zawaida area, north of Deir al-Balah in central Gaza. However, field sources told Asharq Al-Awsat the rockets were launched from a different location — one that has rarely been used for such operations.

The recent rocket barrage by Hamas may have carried a deeper strategic message, the sources told Asharq Al-Awsat, suggesting the attack was intended to raise questions within Israel about the group’s ability to access its missile arsenal — or hint at a regained capacity to manufacture rockets.

Hamas sources declined to specify when the rockets used in the latest attack were produced but stressed that the decision to launch was shaped primarily by field conditions and the assessment of fighters and commanders on the ground.

“At times, we aim to send specific political messages,” said a Hamas source, who requested anonymity.

“For example, we want to underline that Israel has failed to defeat the movement and its military wing, despite carrying out assassinations of senior and field-level commanders,” they added.

Hamas has denied that its latest rocket barrage was a direct response to the recent assassinations of senior figures, saying the attack was part of its broader reaction to what it described as “ongoing massacres” committed by Israel against the Palestinian people.

“This was a routine response within the framework of confronting continuous Israeli aggression,” the Hamas source told Asharq Al-Awsat, rejecting suggestions that the assault was linked to specific events.

The timing of the rocket fire raised eyebrows, coming just hours after a rare protest in Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza, where demonstrators chanted against Hamas, condemned the rocket attacks, and demanded an end to the war.

Protesters also called for Hamas to relinquish control of the Gaza Strip and stop speaking on behalf of its residents.

Asked whether the barrage was meant to send a message to a restless population, Hamas sources denied any connection.

“The rocket fire had nothing to do with the protest in Jabalia,” one source said, pointing to similar demonstrations in recent weeks that were not followed by rocket launches.

When pressed about the implications of such protests for the group’s future in Gaza, the source said internal discussions had taken place.

“The movement recognizes people’s right to express themselves — but not at the expense of the resistance,” the source said.

“There must be clear national guidelines that prioritize ending the war while preserving the legitimacy of the resistance,” they added.

Gaza Governance

Hamas also pushed back against accusations that it is clinging to power in Gaza, placing blame on rival faction Fatah and Israel for blocking proposals aimed at resolving the territory’s political deadlock.

“Hamas has no issue stepping down from governing Gaza,” a source said. “The real obstacle lies with others who have rejected every proposal laid on the table.”

The source pointed to a proposed community support committee, formed with Egyptian mediation, which was meant to take over governance duties. “We showed maximum flexibility, but neither Fatah nor Israel accepted this mechanism,” the source added.

As for whether stepping down from power could weaken Hamas's influence in Gaza, the source appeared unconcerned. “The movement is confident in its endurance,” the source said.

“Even if Hamas relinquishes control and enters a long-term ceasefire, it will continue to exist and maintain its presence,” they affirmed.

A Fatah delegation had held talks with Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty two days ago, focusing primarily on internal Palestinian reconciliation and the future governance of Gaza, as Hamas signaled readiness to hand over administrative responsibilities to a proposed community support committee.

Multiple Hamas sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the group had informed Egyptian officials of its willingness to allow a minister from the Palestinian Authority’s Ramallah-based government to head the committee, with a deputy from Gaza appointed to assist.

A Hamas delegation is expected to travel to Cairo in the coming days to continue discussions with Egyptian officials on the evolving plans for Gaza’s administration and broader efforts to resolve the internal Palestinian divide.