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Inflation in Sudan Declines despite Stagnation, Economic Concerns

A man waits to buy food at a market in Khartoum. (REUTERS/Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah)
A man waits to buy food at a market in Khartoum. (REUTERS/Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah)
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Inflation in Sudan Declines despite Stagnation, Economic Concerns

A man waits to buy food at a market in Khartoum. (REUTERS/Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah)
A man waits to buy food at a market in Khartoum. (REUTERS/Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah)

The Central Bureau of Statistics in Sudan said on Tuesday that the annual inflation rate fell for the second month in a row to 125.41 percent in July, compared to 148.88 percent the previous month, after registering 192 percent in May.

The country is facing record inflation rates, amid a sharp devaluation of the Sudanese pound against the US dollar. The economy deteriorated in the wake of last October's events, which caused the suspension of international financing and a severe shortage of hard currency.

In early August, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reported that an estimated quarter of Sudan’s population (11.7 million people) faced acute food insecurity from June to September.

In its latest update on the situation in Sudan, the UN Office noted that this number represented an increase of about two million people compared to the same period last year. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), a fragile economy, long periods of drought, low cultivated area and erratic rainfall were among the root causes of the increase.

The United Nations News website quoted the Coordination Office as saying that the high prevalence of acute malnutrition in Sudan contributes to increasing morbidity and mortality rates among children under the age of five.

A further increase in acute malnutrition cases is expected, due to multiple factors, including the rising number of people in need of humanitarian assistance, the mounting inflation, and limited coverage of water, sanitation, hygiene and health services.

In a recent report, the Arab Monetary Fund said that the monetary policy in Sudan was facing major challenges since the recent developments, in addition to high rates of inflation.
The Fund added that despite this situation, the Sudanese state was keen to maintain the ongoing economic reforms and to contain inflation amid the pressures imposed by the high levels of the public budget deficit.

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China’s Economy Set to Slow in Q2 as Pressure from US Tariffs Mounts

A laborer works on the glass wall of a building near a luxury brand logo in Beijing, China, Friday, July 11, 2025. (AP)
A laborer works on the glass wall of a building near a luxury brand logo in Beijing, China, Friday, July 11, 2025. (AP)
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China’s Economy Set to Slow in Q2 as Pressure from US Tariffs Mounts

A laborer works on the glass wall of a building near a luxury brand logo in Beijing, China, Friday, July 11, 2025. (AP)
A laborer works on the glass wall of a building near a luxury brand logo in Beijing, China, Friday, July 11, 2025. (AP)

China's economy is likely to have cooled in the second quarter after a solid start to the year, as trade tensions and a prolonged property downturn drag on demand, raising pressure on policymakers to roll out additional stimulus to underpin growth.

The world's No. 2 economy has so far avoided a sharp slowdown in part due to a fragile US-China trade truce and policy support, but markets are bracing for a weaker second half as exports lose momentum, prices continue to fall, and consumer confidence remains low.

Data due Tuesday is expected to show gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.1% year-on-year in April-June, slowing from 5.4% in the first quarter, according to a Reuters poll. The projected pace would still exceed the 4.7% forecast in a Reuters poll in April and remains broadly in line with the official full-year target of around 5%.

"While growth has been resilient year-to-date, we still expect it to soften in the second half of the year, due to the payback of front-loaded exports, ongoing negative deflationary feedback loop, and the impact of tariffs on direct exports to the US and the global trade cycle," analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a note.

"The third-quarter growth could slow to 4.5% or lower, while Q4 faces unfavorable base effect, putting the annual growth target at risk," the analysts said. They expect Beijing to introduce a 0.5-1 trillion yuan ($69.7 billion-$139.5 billion) supplementary budget from late in the third quarter.

China's exports regained some momentum in June while imports rebounded, as factories rushed out shipments to capitalize on a fragile tariff truce between Beijing and Washington ahead of a looming August deadline.

GDP data is due on Tuesday at 0200 GMT. Separate data on June activity is expected to show both industrial output and retail sales slowing.

On a quarterly basis, the economy is forecast to have expanded 0.9% in the second quarter, slowing from 1.2% in January-March, the poll showed.

China's 2025 GDP growth is forecast to cool to 4.6% - falling short of the official goal - from last year's 5.0% and ease even further to 4.2% in 2026, according to the poll.

BALANCING ACT

Investors are closely watching for signs of fresh stimulus at the upcoming Politburo meeting due in late July, which is likely to shape economic policy for the remainder of the year.

Analysts polled by Reuters expect a 10-basis point cut in the seven-day reverse repo rate - the central bank's key policy rate - in the fourth quarter, along with a similar cut to the benchmark loan prime rate (LPR).

Beijing has ramped up infrastructure spending and consumer subsidies, alongside steady monetary easing. In May, the central bank cut interest rates and injected liquidity as part of broader efforts to cushion the economy from US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs.

But China observers and analysts say stimulus alone may not be enough to tackle entrenched deflationary pressures, with producer prices in June falling at their fastest pace in nearly two years.

Expectations are growing that China could accelerate supply-side reforms to curb excess industrial capacity and find new ways to boost domestic demand.

It's a stiff challenge, analysts say, as Chinese leaders face a delicate balancing act in their quest to cut production while maintaining employment stability in the face of a worsening labor market outlook.