Oil Prices Rise on Potential OPEC+ Supply Cuts

A pump jack is seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California October 14, 2014. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson
A pump jack is seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California October 14, 2014. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson
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Oil Prices Rise on Potential OPEC+ Supply Cuts

A pump jack is seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California October 14, 2014. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson
A pump jack is seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California October 14, 2014. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson

Oil prices rose on Thursday on mounting supply tightness concerns amid disruptions to Russian exports, the potential for major producers to cut output, and the partial shutdown of a US refinery.

Brent crude rose 59 cents, or 0.6%, to $101.81 a barrel by 0400 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was up 42 cents, or 0.4%, at $95.31 a barrel, Reuters reported.

Both crude oil benchmark contracts touched three-week highs on Wednesday after the Saudi energy minister flagged the possibility that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, will cut production to support prices.

Also, discussions on an agreement on Iran's nuclear program remain stalled, calling into question any resumption of its exports.

"Brent crude oil prices rebounded above the $100/barrel mark following Saudi officials showing willingness to defend prices via an OPEC+ production cut if necessary," Citi analysts said in a note.

However, there is still uncertainty ahead for OPEC+ to justify an output reduction amid ongoing negotiations around the Iranian nuclear deal, and a deteriorating macroeconomic picture as the energy crunch gets worse, the Citi analysts added.

In the United States, the world's biggest oil consumer, BP reported shutting some units its Whiting, Indiana, refinery after an electrical fire on Wednesday. The 430,000 barrel-per-day plant is a key supplier of fuels to the central US and the city of Chicago.

Talks between the European Union, the US and Iran to revive the 2015 nuclear deal are continuing with Iran saying it had received a response from the United States to the EU's "final" text to resurrect the agreement.

OPEC sources told Reuters that any cuts by OPEC+ are likely to coincide with a return of Iranian oil to the market, should Tehran secure a nuclear deal with world powers.

Falling US crude and product stockpiles also added to the upward pressure on prices. Oil inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels in the week to Aug. 19 at 421.7 million barrels, steeper from analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 933,000-barrel drop.

The bullish impact was countered by a drawdown in gasoline inventories that was less than expected, reflecting tepid demand.

US gasoline stocks fell by 27,000 barrels in the week to 215.6 million barrels, compared with earlier expectations for a 1.5 million-barrel drop.

Overall US gasoline demand sunk in the most recent period, leaving the four-week average of daily gasoline product supplied 7% below the year-earlier period.



Gold Set for Second Straight Weekly Rise

Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo
Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo
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Gold Set for Second Straight Weekly Rise

Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo
Gold bars from the vault of a bank are seen in this illustration picture taken in Zurich November 20, 2014. REUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann/File Photo

Gold prices firmed on Friday and were set for a second straight weekly gain, while traders awaited US employment data to gauge the trajectory of the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts.
Spot gold rose 0.3% at $2,363.19 per ounce, as of 0506 GMT and was up more than 1% for the week. US gold futures gained 0.1% to $2,372.60, Reuters said.
The US dollar was on track for a weekly decline, making dollar priced-bullion more attractive to buyers holding other currencies.
"Gold has enjoyed a productive week so far, with the precious metal being a beneficiary of some weaker US macro data," said Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's chief market analyst.
Economic data on Wednesday, including weak services and ADP employment reports, pointed to a slowing US economy. A separate report showed an increase in initial applications for US unemployment benefits last week.
Market spotlight is on the US nonfarm payrolls report due at 1230 GMT.
"If the jobs data misses the mark on the lower side, I expect investors will start to further fancy a possible September rate cut from the Fed, which could see gold have another crack at the $2,400 level," Waterer said.
Traders are currently pricing in about a 73% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, according to CME FedWatch Tool.
Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
Analysts at NAB expect gold prices to average around $2,200 per ounce in 2024 before easing to $2,050 in 2025.
"Gold demand in early 2024 has been underpinned by central bank purchases – with a key priority of these institutions appearing to be the diversification of assets within their reserves," NAB said in a note.
Spot silver rose 0.5% to $30.56 and was headed for its best week since May 17.
Platinum fell 0.3% to $999.64. Palladium gained 0.5% to $1,022.25 and was headed for a third consecutive weekly gain.