Libya Braces for Bloody Clashes between Militias Loyal to Dbeibah, Bashagha

Joint forces affiliated with Libya's Government of National Unity, assemble inside the closed Tripoli International Airport as they deploy on the outskirts and entrances of the capital Tripoli, on August 16, 2022. (AFP)
Joint forces affiliated with Libya's Government of National Unity, assemble inside the closed Tripoli International Airport as they deploy on the outskirts and entrances of the capital Tripoli, on August 16, 2022. (AFP)
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Libya Braces for Bloody Clashes between Militias Loyal to Dbeibah, Bashagha

Joint forces affiliated with Libya's Government of National Unity, assemble inside the closed Tripoli International Airport as they deploy on the outskirts and entrances of the capital Tripoli, on August 16, 2022. (AFP)
Joint forces affiliated with Libya's Government of National Unity, assemble inside the closed Tripoli International Airport as they deploy on the outskirts and entrances of the capital Tripoli, on August 16, 2022. (AFP)

The Libyan capital Tripoli is bracing itself for bloody clashes between militias loyal to the interim Government of National Unity (GNU), headed by Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah, and militias loyal to the government of “stability,” headed by Fathi Bashagha.

Libya has been enmeshed in a stalemate for months after the eastern-based parliament swore in a new prime minister – Bashagha - despite the incumbent – Dbeibah - in Tripoli refusing to cede power, leading to a standoff with armed factions backing each side.

Militias loyal to the rival governments have declared mobilization and have continued to amass their forces for a new round of fighting.

Witnesses told local media that a state of emergency has been declared throughout Tripoli in anticipation of violence.

Dbeibah vowed on Thursday that no one would be allowed to meddle with the security of the capital.

In what was seen as a direct threat to Bashagha’s forces, he said “we lie in wait” for whoever attempts to undermine security.

The GNU will continue to function as it always has, he added, citing its international recognition.

He said that it will continue even after elections are held, stressing that the government is “the only guarantee to pressure parties to head to elections”.

Bashagha had recently called on Dbeibah to step down and clear the way for his government to prevent any bloodshed.

Meanwhile, chief of staff Mohammed al-Haddad, of the GNU, is monitoring the situation and plan is in place to defend the capital in case of any breach.

Drones have been seen flying over southern and western Tripoli. It is unknown who flew them.

A spokesman for the GNU forces said they were ready to defend the capital against a potential attack by the Libyan National Army, commanded by Khalifa Haftar.

On Tuesday, the United Nations Libya mission said it was deeply concerned by the ongoing mobilization of forces and threats to use force to resolve the country's political crisis.

Several shootouts have already taken place this summer between rival forces in the capital, raising the prospect of wider clashes and a return to sustained warfare after two years of comparative peace.

In Tripoli, Dbeibah was installed last year through a UN-backed process to head the GNU and oversee an election that was scheduled to be held last December.

After the election process collapsed with rival factions refusing to agree on the rules, the eastern-based parliament said Dbeibah's term had expired and it appointed Bashagha to lead a new government.

However, Dbeibah and some major factions in northwest Libya have rejected the parliament's right to replace him and he has said he will only quit after national elections.



Iraq Braces for Economic Fallout from Heavy Reliance on Iran amid Escalating Conflict

An Iraqi man bakes traditional bread at a bakery in Baghdad (EPA). 
An Iraqi man bakes traditional bread at a bakery in Baghdad (EPA). 
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Iraq Braces for Economic Fallout from Heavy Reliance on Iran amid Escalating Conflict

An Iraqi man bakes traditional bread at a bakery in Baghdad (EPA). 
An Iraqi man bakes traditional bread at a bakery in Baghdad (EPA). 

As tensions escalate between Iran and Israel, Iraq is nervously eyeing the potential fallout from a conflict that could have deep and lasting consequences for the country.

While Iraqi authorities and political parties maintain a publicly cautious and reserved stance, behind closed doors, concerns are mounting over what many see as Iraq’s overreliance on Iran in critical sectors such as energy and trade.

A political source speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat revealed that, although officials are holding back from public commentary, there is a growing consensus among political actors that Iraq could face significant disruption regardless of how the conflict unfolds. “There’s an unspoken recognition that many things will change after this war,” the source said.

Already, early signs of strain are surfacing. Iraq’s Ministry of Trade unveiled a new contingency plan this week to safeguard food security amid fears of disrupted supply chains.

Spokesperson Mohammed Hanoun stated the plan aims to “ensure continuity of essential supplies without significant price hikes,” through the buildup of strategic reserves and strengthened market oversight to prevent hoarding or price manipulation.

Security services, meanwhile, reported the arrest of 660 individuals accused of exploiting regional instability. More visibly, daily life is beginning to feel the pressure: consumer activity is slowing, prices of some goods are creeping up, and travel logistics have grown more complex.

With Baghdad International Airport temporarily closed, Basra has become the only functional air entry point. According to sources, the cost of returning to Iraq by land via Jordan has soared from $70 to $250 per passenger.

Experts warn that Iraq’s economic fragility and its deep entanglement with Iran leave it acutely vulnerable. Dr. Siham Youssef, a professor of international economics, explained that Iraq’s heavy dependence on oil exports - comprising over 90% of state revenue - offers little cushion in times of geopolitical upheaval.

While global oil prices have risen by 8% to 12%, Youssef cautioned that any benefit could be wiped out by rising transportation costs, insurance premiums, or damage to infrastructure.

Compounding the issue is Iraq’s reliance on Iranian gas for electricity production. If the conflict interrupts Iranian gas flows, Iraq may face severe power shortages, rising costs, and mounting pressure on an already stretched budget.

Shipping risks are also increasing, with Iraq’s ports located dangerously close to potential conflict zones. Youssef noted that international shipping and insurance firms may soon classify Iraqi ports as “high-risk,” leading to surging logistics costs. Additionally, the closure of Iraqi airspace threatens not only civil aviation but also the loss of overflight revenues.