Britain and the US… And the Round of Violence in Iraq

Saraya al-Salam fighters taking part in the recent skirmishes in Baghdad. (AFP)
Saraya al-Salam fighters taking part in the recent skirmishes in Baghdad. (AFP)
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Britain and the US… And the Round of Violence in Iraq

Saraya al-Salam fighters taking part in the recent skirmishes in Baghdad. (AFP)
Saraya al-Salam fighters taking part in the recent skirmishes in Baghdad. (AFP)

In contrast to its establishment by the British in the early twentieth century, the second effort to establish an Iraqi state, made this century by the US, was chaotic and not based on a vision for how to build it.

There is an immense difference in scale between the two foundations. Iraq had not been a state but three provinces (Baghdad, Mosul, and Basra) of the Ottoman Empire after the First World War, while it was a single country that had been around for 80 years and had the fifth or sixth largest army in the world when Saddam was toppled by the US in 2003.

While Mrs. Gertrude Bell, the Oriental Secretary to the British High Commissioner, was heavily involved in the British effort to establish the new state of Iraq, and she brought in an Arab king from the Hejaz to rule the country, the Americans appointed Paul Bremer as the first top civilian administrator in Iraq, and he went on to destroy the Iraq capacities of state in vain.

The English version of the Iraqi state had a single national identity, as demonstrated by the fact that senior Shiite clerics engaged with the founding of the country from the lens of their national (Arab) identity, not their (Muslim) religious or (Shiite) confessional identity.

When a delegation visited Sharif Hussein bin Ali, they sought to persuade him to allow one of his sons to become king of Iraq.

Everything had changed 80 years later. While in its middle age, what were dubbed grievances of the oppressed began to emerge within the modern Iraqi state. These were especially prevalent during Saddam Hussein’s long rule (1968 - 2003), when it became apparent that some Iraqis were being discriminated against on an ethnic (the persecution of the Kurds, including the Halabja massacre) and confessional (the persecution of the Shiites, which would eventually go as far as prohibiting their Ashura rituals) basis.

All of this history was very much there as the US tanks rolled in with the support and encouragement of Iraq’s new rulers, who had been opposed to Saddam.

Bremer touches on these issues and others in his book “My Year in Iraq”, and many of those he named were part of the Iraqi Governing Council and are so-called founding fathers of the current regime.

Moqtada al-Sadr was still a young man at the tender age of 29 at the time. He inherited the religious leadership position of his father, Muhammad Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr (one of the most influential Shiite clerics in the country) after the latter was assassinated by Saddam in 1999.

The young Sadr, who was seen as a local insider in the sense that he did not arrive in the country on the backs of American tanks like the other opposition forces, quickly decided to launch a resistance movement targeting the Americans with the Sunni resistance.

While these battles eventually led to a sectarian war after the bombing of the Samarra shrine (2006 - 2008), Sadr went on to become among the most influential leaders in Iraq today.

Because the US made the mistake of establishing a political regime built on spoil-sharing among ethnic and confessional groups in Iraq, the national identity of the country was erased, with sub-identities (ethnic, religious, regional, sectarian) replacing it.

The prominence of these identities made it impossible to form a government that could overcome the dominance of spoil-sharing, which shapes all aspects of state building and strengthens religious, partisan, militia, and tribal leaders at the expense of political officials.

In light of this precarious state of affairs, it seems that any shake-up would have a domino effect and lead to successive crises. This happened several times during the October revolution in 2019, leaving hundreds dead and tens of thousands injured, and more recently during the wave of protests launched by the Sadrists.

While a so-called third party was held responsible for what happened during the October protests, the violence that followed Sadr’s announcement that he would retire from political life could not be blamed on a third party.

It was patently obvious that only two sides were involved. On the one hand, is the Sadrist Movement led by Moqtada al-Sadr, and on the other is Coordination Framework, an alliance led by the country’s other powerful Shiite leaders: Nouri al-Maliki, Hadi al-Ameri, Qais Khazali, Ammar al-Hakim, Haider al-Abadi and Falih al-Fayyad.

In this instance, Sadr moved quickly and decisively after he felt and acknowledged that he had been as responsible for the bloodshed as the others and ordered his followers to withdraw. His followers did indeed withdraw within the deadline of one hour that he had set.

Does that mean the state will function normally again? All indications point to what happened being a round of violence that could be a prelude to another. The reason now and always will be the faulty foundation of Iraq, one that sharply differs from that laid by Mrs. Bell.



A Call for Peace in Türkiye: What’s in It for Key Actors?

A Syrian Kurdish woman waves a flag bearing a picture of the founder of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) Abdullah Ocalan, as people gather in the Kurdish-majority city of Qamishli in northeastern Syria to listen to a message from the jailed leader on February 27, 2025. (AFP)
A Syrian Kurdish woman waves a flag bearing a picture of the founder of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) Abdullah Ocalan, as people gather in the Kurdish-majority city of Qamishli in northeastern Syria to listen to a message from the jailed leader on February 27, 2025. (AFP)
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A Call for Peace in Türkiye: What’s in It for Key Actors?

A Syrian Kurdish woman waves a flag bearing a picture of the founder of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) Abdullah Ocalan, as people gather in the Kurdish-majority city of Qamishli in northeastern Syria to listen to a message from the jailed leader on February 27, 2025. (AFP)
A Syrian Kurdish woman waves a flag bearing a picture of the founder of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) Abdullah Ocalan, as people gather in the Kurdish-majority city of Qamishli in northeastern Syria to listen to a message from the jailed leader on February 27, 2025. (AFP)

Türkiye’s 40-year battle against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) could be nearing an end after its jailed leader, Abdullah Ocalan, called on the militant group on Thursday to lay down its arms and disband. Ocalan's statement, announced by the opposition pro-Kurdish DEM party that held three recent meetings with the PKK leader at his island prison, comes four months after the idea was first raised by a political ally of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

There was no immediate response to Ocalan's appeal from the PKK commanders' headquarters in the mountains of northern Iraq.

WHAT'S IN IT FOR ERDOGAN?

Ending the insurgency would be a major achievement for Türkiye’s president after past efforts failed to resolve a conflict in which more than 40,000 people have died since 1984. Erdogan has called it "one of the last obstacles blocking the goal of a great and powerful Türkiye".

Though it remains unclear whether a ceasefire or peace deal could ultimately emerge, Ocalan's call may also boost Erdogan's own political prospects. In order to extend his rule beyond 2028, when his last term as president ends, he would need the support of an opposition party, perhaps DEM, in order to amend the constitution or bring about early elections.

He could also capitalize on military gains against the PKK in mountainous northern Iraq, where it is based, and in Syria, where the ouster of Bashar al-Assad in December has led to the establishment of a strongly pro-Türkiye leadership in Damascus. Ocalan's call could prompt the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeastern Syria to expel members of the PKK-aligned People's Protection Units (YPG), as Ankara has demanded.

ANY RISKS?

There are risks for Erdogan in resurrecting Ocalan, a figure reviled by most Turks, including supporters of his ruling AK Party (AKP).

Mehmet Guner, head of the Martyrs' Families Association for Turkish troops, told Reuters he was "extremely unhappy and very angry" that the government backed Ocalan's public call. "For 40 years, this country has fought against terrorism, sacrificing thousands of martyrs and veterans... We absolutely do not find it appropriate to negotiate with the leader of the terrorists in this manner," he said.

On the Kurdish side, if PKK fighters refuse to heed Ocalan's call and violence continues or even worsens, the distrust that many Turkish Kurds already have for Erdogan could deepen.

WHAT'S IN IT FOR THE KURDS?

The pro-Kurdish political movement, the target of a years-long judicial crackdown, will hope Ocalan's call eventually translates into democratic reforms and greater cultural and language rights for Kurds. A peace deal could also ease social tensions generally across Türkiye, and boost the under-developed economy of its mainly Kurdish southeast. Shortly after one of DEM's meetings with Ocalan in December, Ankara announced a $14 billion regional development plan for the southeast.

"Many Kurds simply do not trust the Turkish state. Any meaningful disarmament process would require concrete steps from Ankara - such as guarantees of political and cultural rights for Kurds - before, not after, a peace deal is made," said Gareth Jenkins, an Istanbul-based political analyst.

If DEM continues to cooperate with Erdogan's AKP - reversing years of fierce opposition - it could also seek to have reinstated the many elected mayors that Turkish authorities have removed from positions and replaced with pro-government officials.

WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR SYRIA?

The Syrian Kurdish SDF, a key US ally, is still battling Turkish and Turkish-backed Syrian forces in the border regions. If SDF commander Mazloum Abdi can filter YPG members from his group, the Kurdish forces could more easily join Syria's newly-forming security structure, centralizing and stabilizing the country as it emerges from 13 years of civil war.

"The YPG will likely heed Ocalan if he asks them to play nice with Türkiye, even if some leaders in Qandil (the PKK headquarters in Iraq) advise the group to do otherwise," said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute.

IMPLICATIONS FOR US-TURKISH TIES?

While the United States deems the PKK terrorists, it has been allied with the YPG's umbrella group in the fight against ISIS in Syria. Türkiye has sharply criticized this US stance as a betrayal of a NATO ally.

Steps toward ending the PKK insurgency could "remove the PKK thorn from US-Turkish relations and pave the way for their anticipated reset under the second Trump administration," Cagaptay said.

"Removing the PKK from Syria's political landscape would pave the way for Türkiye to cooperate with Washington and the Syrian Kurds on many issues beneficial to US interests, such as containing the ISIS, rebuilding the country, and establishing stable Turkish ties with different Syrian groups," he said.