Khamenei Makes Public Appearance after Absence, Amid Heated Debate on His Successor

Iran's Supreme Leader leader Ali Khamenei (Khamenei's Official website)
Iran's Supreme Leader leader Ali Khamenei (Khamenei's Official website)
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Khamenei Makes Public Appearance after Absence, Amid Heated Debate on His Successor

Iran's Supreme Leader leader Ali Khamenei (Khamenei's Official website)
Iran's Supreme Leader leader Ali Khamenei (Khamenei's Official website)

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei made a public appearance after over a week of absence and participated in a religious ceremony with university students on Saturday.

Khamenei's official website published his pictures during the ceremony, and state television showed him standing, addressing the attendees in a steady voice about the significance of the Arbaeen anniversary.

The New York Times said Friday, quoting four people familiar with Khamenei's health, that the Supreme Leader canceled all meetings and public appearances last week after falling gravely ill and is currently on bed rest under observation by a team of doctors.

The adviser to Iran's negotiating team in the nuclear talks, Mohammad Marandi, condemned the newspaper's report, saying it is biased. Marandi's father heads Khamenei's medical team.

Meanwhile, two sources close to Khamenei denied to Reuters on Friday that his health had deteriorated, responding to questions about his health.

Khamenei had not appeared in public since he met followers in Tehran on Sept. 3, sparking rumors on social media that he was ill.

Last week, official Iranian agencies circulated reports of his meeting with a crowd of athletes, but his official website did not publish any picture or news of the meeting.

He also did not meet with members of the Assembly of Experts, a meeting that takes place every six months after 48-hour sessions between influential clerics.

The 88-member council is involved in political and religious activities and selects a successor to the Supreme Leader in the event of his death or failure to perform his duties.

A former president of Iran and protégé of Supreme Leader Khomeini, Khamenei assumed the position of the country's top religious, political, and military authority in 1989.

- Khamenei's succession

The absence of a meeting between the Supreme Leader and the Assembly of Experts sparked a debate about Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, being groomed to be the next leader.

On Aug. 8, the Iranian reformist leader, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, warned of a plan for "hereditary leadership."

Mousavi, who has been under house arrest since February 2011, referred to the possibility of Khamenei's son succeeding him.

Khamenei's office did not comment on Mousavi's warning, but the Revolutionary Guards' media vigorously attacked him because of his criticism of the Religious Leader's interference in the Syrian war without addressing the issue of succession.

Later, Mousavi's warning was taken seriously after the Qom Seminary website referred to him for the first time as Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei.

"Ayatollah" is a religious title given to the clerics of the first rank according to Iran's Constitution, which was considered an indication that Mojtaba might inherit the position.

- Obstruction of Religious References

Following the cancellation of the Khamenei meeting with the Assembly of Experts, reports claimed an "incomplete quorum" after 30 members did not attend the conference.

A report claimed Khamenei's son met with several high-ranking authorities in the Qom Seminary, including Makarem Shirazi.

According to the sources, the religious references stressed the necessity of transforming Wilayat al-Faqih into a leadership shura, not led by one individual, which created a shock.

They noted that consultations among some members of the Assembly led to boycotting the meeting, which is held every six months.

- Shadow Person

Mojtaba's role in his father's office during the 2005 presidential elections was highlighted when reformist leader Mehdi Karroubi warned against his interference in the elections in favor of one of the candidates, in reference to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

In the 2009 elections, Mojtaba faced accusations of suppressing protesters and interfering in the polls.

In December 2018, Karroubi sent a strong message to Khamenei, asking him to take responsibility for his actions over 30 years, saying he did not prevent Mojtaba's interference in elections.

- Similarities

The idea of ​​succession gained traction after increased chances of President Ebrahim Raisi assuming the position of the third leader.

Raisi won the presidential elections last year without being contested by a real competitor. The presidency was his second prominent position after Khamenei issued a decree naming him the head of the judiciary.

The Revolutionary Guards media began using the title "Ayatollah" for Raisi, and in April 2016, commanders of the Revolutionary Guards submitted a report about the internal and regional activities of the Guards to Raisi.

The move was interpreted as "a pledge of allegiance from the IRGC commanders to a rising candidate who is a Supreme Leader in training."

Last August, Khamenei vigorously defended the government's performance against criticism of worsening the economic conditions and prolonging talks to restore the nuclear deal.

Despite the similarities between Raisi and Khamenei before he took office, some analysts believe that Raisi's current performance could lead to a decline in his chances of reaching the highest position in the country.

- The Reformist

The grandson of the first Supreme Leader, Hassan Khomeini, who has close ties to the reformist camp, is a third candidate for the position.

Khomeini enjoys the support of religious circles close to his grandfather's establishment, especially those concerned about Khamenei's rule style.

He tried to boost his role in religious circles by running for the Assembly of Experts elections in February 2016, but he was excluded for an incomplete file.

Khomeini again sought a political position during the 2021 presidential elections, but Khamenei said his candidacy would not be in the regime's interests.

Supporters of Khomeini's approach, including supporters of a "leadership shura," are relying on Hassan's candidacy.

Former President Mohammad Khatami, former President Hassan Rouhani, and Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri are the most prominent supporters of this movement.



Blinken Meets China’s Wang after Chiding Beijing’s ‘Escalating Actions’ at Sea

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks at the 57th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting at the National Convention Center, in Vientiane, Laos, July 27, 2024. (Reuters)
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks at the 57th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting at the National Convention Center, in Vientiane, Laos, July 27, 2024. (Reuters)
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Blinken Meets China’s Wang after Chiding Beijing’s ‘Escalating Actions’ at Sea

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks at the 57th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting at the National Convention Center, in Vientiane, Laos, July 27, 2024. (Reuters)
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaks at the 57th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting at the National Convention Center, in Vientiane, Laos, July 27, 2024. (Reuters)

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on Saturday during a regional summit in Laos, hours after criticizing Beijing's "escalating and unlawful actions" in the South China Sea.

Blinken and Wang shook hands and exchanged greetings in front of cameras but made no comments before moving to closed-door talks in what will be their sixth meeting since June 23, when Blinken visited Beijing in a significant sign of improvement for strained relations between the world's two biggest economies.

Though Blinken had singled out China over its actions against US defense ally the Philippines in the South China Sea during a meeting with Southeast Asian counterparts earlier on Saturday, he also lauded the two countries for their diplomacy after Manila completed a resupply mission to troops in an area also claimed by Beijing.

The troop presence has for years angered China, which has clashed repeatedly with the Philippines over Manila's missions to a grounded navy ship at the Second Thomas Shoal, causing regional concern about an escalation.

The two sides this week reached an arrangement over how to conduct those missions.

"We are pleased to take note of the successful resupply today of the Second Thomas shoal, which is the product of an agreement reached between the Philippines and China," Blinken told ASEAN foreign ministers.

"We applaud that and hope and expect to see that it continues going forward."

GAZA SITUATION 'DIRE'

Blinken and Wang attended Saturday's security-focused ASEAN Regional Forum in Laos alongside top diplomats of major powers including Russia, India, Australia, Japan, the European, Britain and others, before heading to their meeting.

Blinken said earlier the United States was "working intensely every single day" to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza and find a path to more enduring peace and security.

His remarks follow those of Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi, who said the need for sustainable peace was urgent and international law should be applied to all. The comment from the world's largest Muslim-majority nation, was a veiled reference to recent decisions by two international courts over Israeli's Gaza offensives.

"We cannot continue closing our eyes to see the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza," she said.

More than 39,000 Palestinians have been killed in the fighting in Gaza since Israel launched its incursion, according to Palestinian health authorities, who do not distinguish between fighters and non-combatants.

Israeli officials estimate that some 14,000 fighters from armed groups including Hamas and Islamic Jihad, have been killed or taken prisoner, out of a force they estimated to number more than 25,000 at the start of the war.

The war began when Hamas fighters attacked Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people and abducting some 250 others, according to Israeli tallies.

Also in Laos, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said guidelines on the operation of US nuclear assets on the Korean peninsula were certain to add to regional security concerns.

Lavrov, according to South Korean news agency Yonhap, said he had not been briefed on the details of the plan, which was of concern to Russia.

"So far we can't even get an explanation of what this means, but there is no doubt that it causes additional anxiety," Russia's state-run RIA new agency quoted him as saying.

'THIS IS NOT SUSTAINABLE'

Ahead of Saturday's two summits, Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong urged Myanmar's military rulers to take a different path and end an intensifying civil war, pressing the generals to abide by their commitment to follow ASEAN's five-point consensus peace plan.

The conflict pits Myanmar's well-equipped military against a loose alliance of ethnic minority rebel groups and an armed resistance movement that has been gaining ground and testing the generals' ability to govern.

The junta has largely ignored the ASEAN-promoted peace effort, and the 10-member bloc has hit a wall as all sides refuse to enter into dialogue.

"We see the instability, the insecurity, the deaths, the pain that is being caused by the conflict," Wong told reporters.

"My message from Australia to the regime is, this is not sustainable for you or for your people."

An estimated 2.6 million people have been displaced by fighting. The junta has been condemned for excessive force in its air strikes on civilian areas and accused of atrocities, which it has dismissed as Western disinformation.

ASEAN issued a communique on Saturday, two days after its top diplomats met, stressing it was united behind its peace plan for Myanmar, saying it was confident in its special envoy's resolve to achieve "an inclusive and durable peaceful resolution" to the conflict.

It condemned violence against civilians and urged all sides in Myanmar to cease hostilities.

ASEAN welcomed unspecified practical measures to reduce tension in the South China Sea and prevent accidents and miscalculations, while urging all stakeholders to halt actions that could complicate and escalate disputes.

The ministers described North Korea's missile tests as worrisome developments and urged peaceful resolutions to the conflicts in Ukraine, as well as Gaza, expressing concern over the dire humanitarian situation and "alarming casualties" there.