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Oil Prices Surge More than 2% as Putin Mobilizes More Troops

Vessels carrying supplies for an offshore oil platform operated by Exxon Mobil are seen at the Guyana Shore Base Inc wharf on the Demerara River, south of Georgetown, Guyana January 23, 2020. (Reuters)
Vessels carrying supplies for an offshore oil platform operated by Exxon Mobil are seen at the Guyana Shore Base Inc wharf on the Demerara River, south of Georgetown, Guyana January 23, 2020. (Reuters)
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Oil Prices Surge More than 2% as Putin Mobilizes More Troops

Vessels carrying supplies for an offshore oil platform operated by Exxon Mobil are seen at the Guyana Shore Base Inc wharf on the Demerara River, south of Georgetown, Guyana January 23, 2020. (Reuters)
Vessels carrying supplies for an offshore oil platform operated by Exxon Mobil are seen at the Guyana Shore Base Inc wharf on the Demerara River, south of Georgetown, Guyana January 23, 2020. (Reuters)

Oil jumped more than 2% on Wednesday after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a partial military mobilization, escalating the war in Ukraine and raising concerns of tighter oil and gas supply.

Brent crude futures rose $2.28, or 2.5%, to $92.90 a barrel by 0707 GMT after falling $1.38 the previous day.

US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $86.16 a barrel, up $2.22, or 2.6%.

Putin said he had signed a decree on partial mobilization beginning on Wednesday, saying he was defending Russian territories and that the West wanted to destroy the country.

The escalation will lead to increased uncertainty over Russian energy supplies, said Warren Patterson, head of commodities research at ING.

"The move could possibly lead to calls for more aggressive action against Russia in terms of sanctions from the west," he said.

Oil soared and touched a multi-year high in March after the Ukraine war broke out.

European Union sanctions banning seaborne imports of Russian crude will come into force on Dec. 5.

"It seems like a knee-jerk reaction to a sliver of news and would be liable to further recalibration in the coming hours," said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore.

Meanwhile, the United States said that it did not expect a breakthrough on reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal at this week's UN General Assembly, reducing the prospects of a return of Iranian barrels to the international market.

The OPEC+ producer grouping - the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and associates including Russia - is now falling a record 3.58 million barrels per day short of its production targets, or about 3.5% of global demand. The shortfall highlights the underlying tightness of supply in the market.

Investors this week have been bracing for another aggressive interest rate hike from the US Federal Reserve that they fear could lead to recession and plunging fuel demand.

The Fed is widely expected to hike rates by 75 basis points for the third time in a row later on Wednesday in its drive to rein in inflation.

Meanwhile, US crude and fuel stocks rose by about 1 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 16, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.

US crude oil inventories were estimated to have risen last week by around 2.2 million barrels in the week to Sept. 16, according to an extended Reuters poll.

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Business

Saudi GDP Grows 2.8% in First Quarter

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
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Saudi GDP Grows 2.8% in First Quarter

The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)
The Saudi capital, Riyadh (SPA)

Saudi Arabia's real gross domestic product grew 2.8% in the first quarter, year-on-year, preliminary government estimates showed on Thursday.

Non-oil activities grew 2.8% in the quarter, and oil activities increased 2.3% from the prior-year period, the General Authority of Statistics data ⁠showed.

On a quarterly basis, growth shrank 1.5% in the three months to March 31 compared to the fourth quarter, driven by a decline in oil activities.

Oil activity decreased 7.2% from the fourth quarter, while non-oil activity was almost flat.

Business

IMF Warns Asia to Keep Policy in Balance Amid Energy Disruptions

FILE PHOTO: A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., US, November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., US, November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo
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IMF Warns Asia to Keep Policy in Balance Amid Energy Disruptions

FILE PHOTO: A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., US, November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: A view of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo at its headquarters in Washington, D.C., US, November 24, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo

Asian countries will need to keep their powder dry in preparation for future shocks even as they tackle an energy crisis caused by the Iran War, IMF Director for Asia Pacific Krishna Srinivasan said on Thursday.

With energy supplies running short due to the logjam in the Strait of Hormuz, southeast Asian economies have budgeted significant sums to cushion the impact of surging prices, and have also introduced measures to conserve energy, including work from home plans.

But Srinivasan, speaking at a media roundtable, warned countries against ramping up energy subsidies.

"If you give generalised subsidies, it's very hard to pull it back," he said, adding that countries should instead provide budget neutral ⁠and targeted fiscal ⁠support, and maintain fiscal discipline.

"In other words, cut elsewhere to support people who are being hit by the energy shock," Reuters quoted him as saying.

Srinivasan said that while some markets, such as Thailand and China, can hold off on tightening monetary policy because they are in deflationary territory, markets already above their inflation targets, including Australia, need to start now.

He also ⁠noted that some markets, such as the Philippines, have decided to tighten preemptively to anchor inflation expectations, but he added that the IMF's advice would have been to see through the shock and wait to see if inflation really picks up in a meaningful way.

"You may want to take insurance upfront or you may want to wait and see so that you don't hurt growth ... it's a very difficult balance to strike as a central bank governor," he said.

The IMF cut its global GDP outlook for 2026 to 3.1% on April 14, assuming ⁠a short-lived Middle ⁠East conflict and oil prices normalising in the second half of the year.

However, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warned that the fund's "adverse scenario" of 2.5% growth looked increasingly likely, with continued energy disruptions and no clear path to end the conflict.

Srinivasan said that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed beyond the next three months and oil prices stay elevated for the rest of the year, the IMF's more severe growth scenarios will become more likely.

There are still downside risks to growth, with a number of uncertainties facing the world economy, including the duration of the energy crisis and the severity of fertiliser shortages, which could create a food supply shock, he said.

Business

Euro Zone Inflation Soars Further Above ECB Target

FILE -Clouds cover the sky over the headquarters of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany, Sept. 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Michael Probst, File)
FILE -Clouds cover the sky over the headquarters of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany, Sept. 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Michael Probst, File)
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Euro Zone Inflation Soars Further Above ECB Target

FILE -Clouds cover the sky over the headquarters of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany, Sept. 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Michael Probst, File)
FILE -Clouds cover the sky over the headquarters of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany, Sept. 11, 2025. (AP Photo/Michael Probst, File)

Euro zone inflation surged further in April on soaring energy costs, Eurostat data showed on Thursday, adding to the case for interest rate hikes, even if benign underlying price growth figures ease the urgency of any move.

Inflation in the 21 countries sharing the euro currency jumped to 3.0% this month from 2.6% in March, moving further above the European Central Bank's 2% target, with energy costs accounting for the vast majority of the increase.

A closely watched figure ⁠on underlying or 'core' ⁠inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, meanwhile slowed to 2.2% from 2.3% a month earlier.

Services inflation, a stubbornly high component of the price basket over the past several years, slowed to 3.0% from 3.2% while inflation for non-energy industrial ⁠goods, a key drag on prices picked up to 0.8%.

The figures are a mixed bag for the ECB, which is meeting on Thursday and will likely keep interest rates unchanged, even if it signals that policy tightening is increasingly likely, Reuters reported.

The high headline inflation print strengthens the argument for interest rate hikes but the underlying figures suggest that the initial energy shock is not yet creating major ⁠second round effects.

The ⁠ECB is largely powerless against an energy shock but must step in if these second round effects become visible as they risk creating a hard-to-break self-sustaining inflation spiral.

This is why investors expect the ECB to hike its 2% deposit rate already in June and see at least two more moves before the end of the year.

This outlook is volatile, however, and largely depends on developments in the Iran war and oil prices, which hit a four-year-high of $124 on Thursday.