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Egypt's Central Bank Expected to Raise Interest Rates by 100 Basis Points

A Reuters poll forecasted that the central bank will raise its overnight deposit rate by 100 basis points (bps) as it tries to dampen resurgent inflation. (Reuters)
A Reuters poll forecasted that the central bank will raise its overnight deposit rate by 100 basis points (bps) as it tries to dampen resurgent inflation. (Reuters)
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Egypt's Central Bank Expected to Raise Interest Rates by 100 Basis Points

A Reuters poll forecasted that the central bank will raise its overnight deposit rate by 100 basis points (bps) as it tries to dampen resurgent inflation. (Reuters)
A Reuters poll forecasted that the central bank will raise its overnight deposit rate by 100 basis points (bps) as it tries to dampen resurgent inflation. (Reuters)

Experts and economists agreed that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will raise interest rates during its meeting on Thursday but did not agree on the rate hike.

A Reuters poll forecasted that the central bank will raise its overnight deposit rate by 100 basis points (bps) as it tries to dampen resurgent inflation.

The median forecast in a poll of 15 analysts is for the bank to raise its deposit rate to 12.25% and its lending rate to 13.25% at its regular monetary policy committee meeting.

The committee will meet a day after a meeting of the Federal Reserve, which is expected to raise US interest rates.

The CBE kept its rates on hold at its last two meetings, on June 23 and August 18, but raised them by 200 bps in May, saying it was seeking to contain inflation expectations after prices surged by their fastest in three years.

“A continued rise in inflation and in parallel Egyptian pound weakness warrant further monetary tightening,” said Mohamed Abu Basha of EFG Hermes.

Cairo’s annual urban consumer inflation quickened to 14.6% year-on-year in August from 13.6% in July, while core inflation rose to 16.7% from 15.6%.

The central bank has an inflation target range of 5-9%, but in June said it would tolerate a higher level until after the fourth quarter.

Not all analysts expect a rate hike.

Wael Ziada of Zilla Holding said most of the economic shock to Egypt has been external and has already been reflected in the domestic inflation rate. Any interest rate increase would have little effect on inflation.

“External variables with regard to oil prices and the food price index may indicate that the worst in terms of importing inflation has passed,” he added.

HC Securities and Investment expected the CBE to gradually raise the overnight deposit and lending rates by 100 bps in the coming meeting and then raise it by another 100 bps in the following meeting.

Financials analyst and economist at HC, Heba Monir commented: “The annual August inflation is the highest recorded since May 2019, as the pricing of imported commodities at a higher exchange rate and supply bottlenecks negatively impacted it.”

At these levels, the annual inflation rate is well above the CBE's pre-announced target of 7% (+/-2% for Q4 2022), and the HC estimates it to average 14.3% until the end of the year.

Regarding Egypt's external position, Monir said the HC believes that pressure is accumulating.

Currently, Egypt offers a real yield on 12-month T-bills of 208 bps (given the current 12-month T-bills rate, HC’s 12-month inflation estimate of 12.25%, and a 15% tax rate for European and US investors) compared to a real return on the US 1-year notes of negative 245 bps (given 1-year notes yield of 3.83%, Bloomberg average 12 million inflation estimate of 6.28%, and assuming no taxes).

Based on HC’s assumptions and calculations, Egyptian 12-month T-bills need to increase in 2022 to 17.3% from 16.9% currently to remain attractive, Monir stressed.

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US Solar Tariffs Could Drive Asia Transition Boom

Massive new tarrifs could hit solar panels made in Southeast Asia from June. (AFP)
Massive new tarrifs could hit solar panels made in Southeast Asia from June. (AFP)
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US Solar Tariffs Could Drive Asia Transition Boom

Massive new tarrifs could hit solar panels made in Southeast Asia from June. (AFP)
Massive new tarrifs could hit solar panels made in Southeast Asia from June. (AFP)

Massive planned US duties on solar panels made in Southeast Asia could be a chance for the region to ramp up its own long-stalled energy transition, experts say.
Earlier this month, Washington announced plans for hefty duties on solar panels made in Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia.
The levies follow an investigation, launched before US President Donald Trump took office, into "unfair practices" in the countries, particularly by Chinese-headquartered firms, AFP said.
If approved next month, they will pile upon tariffs already imposed by the Trump administration, including blanket 10-percent levies for most countries, and 145 percent on Chinese-made goods.
For the US market, the consequences are likely to be severe. China makes eight out of every 10 solar panels globally, and controls 80 percent of every stage of the manufacturing process.
The new tariffs "will practically make solar exports to US impossible commercially", said Putra Adhiguna, managing director at the Energy Shift Institute think tank.
Southeast Asia accounted for nearly 80 percent of US solar panel imports in 2024.
And while investment in solar production has ramped up in the United States in recent years, the market still relies heavily on imported components.
For Chinese manufacturers, already dealing with a saturated domestic market, the raft of tariffs is potentially very bad news.
Many shifted operations to Southeast Asia hoping to avoid punitive measures imposed by Washington and the European Union as they try to protect and nurture domestic solar industries.
The proposed new duties range from around 40 percent for some Malaysian exports to an eye-watering 3,521 percent for some Cambodia-based manufacturers.
- Tariffs 'accelerate' transition -
But there may be a silver lining for the region, explained Ben McCarron, managing director at Asia Research & Engagement.
"The tariffs and trade war are likely to accelerate the energy transition in Southeast Asia," he said.
China will "supercharge efforts" in regional markets and push for policy and implementation plans to "enable fast adoption of green energy across the region", driven by its exporters.
Analysts have long warned that countries in the region are moving too slowly to transition from planet-warming fossil fuels like coal.
"At the current pace, it (Southeast Asia) risks missing out on the opportunities provided by the declining costs of wind and solar, now cheaper than fossil fuels," said energy think tank Ember in a report last year.
For example, Malaysia relied on fossil fuels for over 80 percent of its electricity generation last year.
It aims to generate 24 percent from renewables by 2030, a target that has been criticized as out of step with global climate goals.
The tariff regime represents a double opportunity for the region, explained Muyi Yang, senior energy analyst at Ember.
So far, the local solar industry has been "largely opportunistic, focused on leveraging domestic resources or labor advantages for export gains", he told AFP.
Cut off from the US market, it could instead focus on local energy transitions, speeding green energy uptake locally and driving a new market that "could serve as a natural hedge against external volatility".
Still, replacing the US market will not be easy, given its size and the relatively nascent state of renewables in the region.
"Success hinges on turning this export-led momentum into a homegrown cleantech revolution," said Yang.
"Clearance prices" may be attractive to some, but countries in the region and beyond may also be cautious about a flood of solar, said Adhiguna.
Major markets like Indonesia and India already have measures in place intended to favor domestic solar production.
"Many will hesitate to import massively, prioritizing trade balance and aims to create local green jobs," he said.