Saudi Experts Suggest Int’l Production Center Focusing on Coffee as a National Wealth

The first international “Saudi Coffee Sustainability Forum” in Jazan to discuss the value chain of Saudi coffee (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The first international “Saudi Coffee Sustainability Forum” in Jazan to discuss the value chain of Saudi coffee (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Experts Suggest Int’l Production Center Focusing on Coffee as a National Wealth

The first international “Saudi Coffee Sustainability Forum” in Jazan to discuss the value chain of Saudi coffee (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The first international “Saudi Coffee Sustainability Forum” in Jazan to discuss the value chain of Saudi coffee (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Saudi Arabia needs to focus on the quality of production and agriculture of coffee beans and increase its research if it wants to compete in the global market, concluded an international gathering.

Under the patronage of Governor of Jazan Prince Mohammad bin Nasser bin Abdulaziz, organized by the Ministry of Culture, Saudi Arabia hosted the first international forum to examine the benefit of coffee as national wealth, explore available investment opportunities, and discuss financing options and the role of this activity in the domestic product.

The Ministry of Culture organized the international “Saudi Coffee Sustainability Forum” in Jazan between Oct. 1 and 2 to discuss the value chain of Saudi coffee and relevant economic, social, and environmental aspects of sustainability.

It provides an overview of the local economy and presents practical papers and in-depth research that discuss aspects related to agriculture, production, and sustainable international practices for growing coffee beans.

- Government cooperation

Expert in agricultural economics, Mohammad al-Qunaibet, stressed the importance of the cooperation of authorities such as the Ministry of Culture and the Jazan Mountain Development Authority in scientific research to obtain high results that will lead to the sustainability and development of the sector.

According to Qunaibet, a scientific study revealed that the average costs are dedicated to preparing land and equipment, with about 79 percent, while the rest goes to variable expenses, including labor, irrigation water, and harvesting.

The expert pointed out that the world produces 10 million tons of coffee beans, three of which are made by Brazil, while Saudi Arabia produces 650 tons.

Saudi competition must be based on high quality and a “very luxurious” product to compete and market globally, said Qunaibet.

- Funding

The head of the development impact department at the Agricultural Development Fund, Bandar al-Rabiah, stated that the farm funding program amounts to $800,000 for farms in rural areas, pointing out that this year the funding recorded a leap, bringing the total value of approved financing to $3.2 million in Jazan alone.

Rabiah called for intensifying the efforts of the relevant authorities to increase cultural awareness of coffee to push funding to higher levels.

- Increased prices

For his part, Karl Weinhold, a researcher in rural development and the coffee economy, explained that coffee is currently experiencing price risks due to environmental changes and climatic conditions, pushing prices to rise globally.

Weinhold pointed out that many local farmers in the coffee industry around the world have been suffering from low income and poverty recently, explaining that it is possible to find diversified sequential paths.

He demanded that small coffee farmers must be aware that working collectively ensures the continuity of their businesses and industries.

- Economics of coffee

Furthermore, a professor of economics at the College of Business Administration at King Faisal University, Hassan Hajooj, stated that the coffee sector could become an economic tributary, provided that authorities take advantage of the geographical location of the Kingdom between the coffee-growing regions in Asia and Asia.

The Kingdom is one of the largest importers and consumers of coffee, ranking eighth in the world.

Hajooj added that Saudi consumption increased 100 percent in 2019, which means an increasing consumption trend in the Kingdom.

The Ministry of Commerce issued 7,300 commercial records, 2020 for cafes, which is an indicator of the contribution of coffee to economic activity.

The Kingdom’s annual spending on coffee consumption amounted to $346 million, said Hajooj, while the market value of restaurants and cafes is estimated at a compound annual rate of 8 percent.

The professor estimated that the linear forecast for the value of the Saudi coffee import bill would rise to $425 million until 2023, noting that the coffee sector accounted for about 0.86 percent of Saudi Arabia’s gross domestic product in 2020 and that that figure was set to rise to 6.18 percent over the next five years.

- Global Trends

Hajooj added that the current global trends prove the increased demand for coffee consumption, especially with the change in the behavioral pattern of consumption in China and India.

- Global Center

The expert called for Saudi Arabia to adopt a global center in coffee production within the framework of the 10th National Development Plan aimed at making the Kingdom a global logistics hub and supporting Vision 2030.

He explained that the Kingdom could become a global center for the coffee industry through the location of Jazan, especially with the export ports between Asia and Africa.

Turkey, the UAE, and Malaysia are among the largest exporters to the Kingdom, and they are all non-producing countries but reproduce and export.

- Complex and Museum

Director of the Jazan Mountain Development Authority Dhafer al-Fahad explained that authorities continue to develop crops suitable for the climate of the mountainous governorates and coffee seedlings.

He added that 900,000 coffee seedlings would be distributed for research in the coming years.

The Authority established a statistical database for all coffee growers in Jazan that is updated periodically. It has also founded the Saudi Coffee Center in cooperation with Saudi Aramco.

In addition, it created an automated nursery to increase the production capacity of coffee seedlings to 800,000 annually.

Fahad announced the Culinary Arts Commission intended to establish the Saudi Coffee Museum in partnership with the Ministry of Culture and that the Kingdom had joined the World Coffee Organization.



Gold Set for Worst Month in More Than 17 Years as US Rate-cut Hopes Fade

An Indian woman tries on gold ornaments at a jewelry shop in Bangalore (EPA)
An Indian woman tries on gold ornaments at a jewelry shop in Bangalore (EPA)
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Gold Set for Worst Month in More Than 17 Years as US Rate-cut Hopes Fade

An Indian woman tries on gold ornaments at a jewelry shop in Bangalore (EPA)
An Indian woman tries on gold ornaments at a jewelry shop in Bangalore (EPA)

Gold prices rose on Tuesday on hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, but were poised for their worst month in more than 17 years as higher energy prices dimmed hopes for a US interest rate cut this year.

Spot gold was up 1.1% at $4,561.68 per ounce, as of 0427 GMT. US gold futures for April delivery gained 0.7% to $4,590.

The dollar eased, making greenback-denominated commodities more affordable for holders of other currencies.

"Gold prices are bouncing in ⁠early Asia-Pacific trade ⁠after US President Donald Trump told aides he is willing to end the US military campaign against Iran... That triggered a risk-on response from financial markets," said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.

Trump told aides that he is willing to end the military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed and leave a ⁠complex operation to reopen it for a later date, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.

"Gold has been stabilizing for about a week now, with a rally last Friday a particular standout. That came alongside a drop in Treasury yields that seems to suggest the markets are starting to see the Iran war as a recession risk," Reuters quoted Spivak as saying.

Bullion has fallen more than 13% so far this month, putting it on track for its steepest decline since October 2008, weighed down by a stronger dollar and fading expectations of a US interest rate cut ⁠this year. ⁠Prices are still up about 5% for the quarter.

Traders have almost completely priced out any chance of a US Federal Reserve rate cut this year, as higher energy prices threaten to feed into broader inflation.

Gold tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment as it is a non-yielding asset.

Before the war in the Middle East erupted, there were expectations of two Fed rate cuts for this year, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Goldman Sachs said in a note that it still expects gold to reach $5,400 per ounce by end 2026 on central bank diversification and Fed easing.

Spot silver rose 2.9% to $72.04 per ounce, spot platinum gained 0.6% to $1,911.15, and palladium was up 2% at $1,434.23.


Oil Slips, Stocks Rise as Report Says Trump Willing to End War

The squeeze on supply has pushed oil and gas prices ever higher, with drastic knock-on effects for supply chains in countless industries. Brandon Bell / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP
The squeeze on supply has pushed oil and gas prices ever higher, with drastic knock-on effects for supply chains in countless industries. Brandon Bell / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP
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Oil Slips, Stocks Rise as Report Says Trump Willing to End War

The squeeze on supply has pushed oil and gas prices ever higher, with drastic knock-on effects for supply chains in countless industries. Brandon Bell / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP
The squeeze on supply has pushed oil and gas prices ever higher, with drastic knock-on effects for supply chains in countless industries. Brandon Bell / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP

Oil prices sank and most stocks rose Tuesday, following a report that indicated Donald Trump was willing to end the Iran war even if the key Strait of Hormuz remained closed.

But investors remain wary as the Wall Street Journal story came on the same day the US president threatened to destroy Iran's key oil export hub and desalination plants unless it accepts a deal, while also suggesting diplomacy was making headway, said AFP.

The news comes as governments around the world scramble to implement measures to ease the burden of surging fuel prices while also looking to conserve energy, with one-fifth of global crude and gas passing through the waterway.

The Journal, citing administration officials, said Trump and his aides had come to the conclusion that a mission to reopen the waterway would extend the length of the mission past his four- to six-week timeline.

It added that he had decided to focus on battering Iran's missiles and navy, before looking to pressure Iran diplomatically to reopen the Strait.

Both main oil contracts fell Tuesday, though West Texas Intermediate and Brent were still sitting well above $100 a barrel.

And most equity markets rose. Hong Kong, Shanghai, Sydney, Singapore, Wellington and Jakarta were all up, while Tokyo fluctuated.

Seoul, Taipei and Manila fell.

However, Trump also threatened Monday to destroy Kharg Island, through which most of Iran's crude passes, if a peace deal is not reached.

He warned US forces would destroy "all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!)."

Destroying civilian infrastructure could constitute a war crime, experts say.

Iran has previously threatened to retaliate by targeting energy infrastructure and desalination plants in its Arab neighbors that host the US military, fanning fears of a wider conflict.

But Trump also said officials were speaking to a "more reasonable regime" in Tehran, which has denied any talks and accused the president of lying about negotiations as cover while preparing a ground invasion.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio voiced hope for working with elements within Iran's government.

Market experts warned that any US ground operation or wider Iranian retaliation could send oil prices to levels not seen since July 2008, when Brent hit almost $150 a barrel.

'De-escalation and re-escalation'

In a sign Iran was determined to keep control of Hormuz, state media reported Monday that a parliamentary commission had approved plans to impose tolls on vessels transiting it.

With Trump flipping between hope for talks and threats, analysts said investors were having to walk a tightrope.

"The market continues to be headline-driven as the Trump Administration has delivered a variety of messages surrounding de-escalation and re-escalation of the war in Iran," Wolfe Research's Chris Senyek said.

With the war now in its fifth week, governments are moving to shore up their economies.

Economy ministers and central bankers from the G7 club of rich countries met in Paris to discuss the war's effects, with many countries introducing energy-saving measures or cutting fuel taxes to help consumers.

Norway said it will temporarily cut diesel and petrol taxes and Bangladesh ordered civil servants to switch off lights and turn down air conditioning to save power.

Sri Lanka announced a nearly 40 percent increase in electricity prices from Wednesday as it battles an energy shortage. Colombo has raised fuel prices three times this month, increasing them by more than a third, and has imposed a four-day working week in a bid to save energy.

"From here, the burden shifts from military outcomes to economic endurance. The question is no longer how high oil spikes, but how long elevated energy costs bleed into growth, margins, and consumption," said SPI Asset Management's Stephen Innes.

Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell also provided a little support, saying Monday the bank could look past energy shocks because they "have tended to come and go pretty quickly" but monetary policy changes take time to flow through the economy.

While the spike in energy prices threatens to send inflation soaring again, he added that officials "feel like our policy is in a good place for us to wait and see how that turns out" and "inflation expectations do appear to be well-anchored beyond the short term".


IMF: Iran War 'Shock' is Dimming Outlook for Many Economies

FILE PHOTO: International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, US, September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, US, September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo
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IMF: Iran War 'Shock' is Dimming Outlook for Many Economies

FILE PHOTO: International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, US, September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: International Monetary Fund (IMF) logo is seen outside the headquarters building in Washington, US, September 4, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo

The war in the Middle East has caused serious disruption to the economies of frontline countries, and is dimming the outlook for many economies that had just started to recover from previous crises, the International Monetary Fund warned on Monday.

In a blog published by the global lender's top economists, the IMF said the war launched by US and Israeli strikes against Iran on February 28 was causing a global, but asymmetric shock and leading to tighter financial conditions.

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to regional infrastructure had caused the largest disruption to the global oil market in history, given that 25%-30% of global oil and 20% of liquefied natural gas normally passed through the narrow waterway, according to ⁠the International Energy ⁠Agency.

The war's impact would depend on how long it lasts, how far it spreads and how much damage it inflicts on infrastructure and supply chains, the IMF said, urging countries to carefully calibrate any measures to manage the shock.

The IMF was also supporting member countries with policy advice and financial assistance, where needed and in coordination with the international community, the fund said.

The IMF statement came as finance ⁠leaders from the Group of Seven economic powers said they were ready to take "all necessary measures" to safeguard energy market stability and limit broader economic spillovers from recent volatility.

The International Energy Agency's 32 members agreed earlier this month to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles to combat a spike in global crude prices.

The IMF blog said low-income countries were at particular risk of food insecurity, given higher food and fertilizer prices, and might need more external support at a time when many advanced economies were scaling back their international assistance.

"Although the war could shape the global economy in different ways, all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth," the economists wrote, according to Reuters. They noted that ⁠large energy importers ⁠in Asia and Europe were bearing the brunt of higher fuel and input prices, while countries in Africa and Asia were finding it hard to access the supplies they need, even at inflated prices.

A long conflict and the associated uncertainty and geopolitical risk could keep energy expensive and strain countries that rely on imports, tensions could linger and inflation could prove hard to tame, they said.

The IMF said it will release a fuller assessment in its World Economic Outlook, to be published on April 14, during the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington.

If elevated energy and food prices persist, they will fuel inflation worldwide, the authors wrote, noting that sustained oil-price spikes have historically tended to push inflation higher and growth lower.

The war could also fuel expectations that inflation will remain higher for longer, which could translate into higher wages and prices, making it harder to contain the shock without a sharper slowdown, they said.