Raging Conflicts Afflict the Middle East Region

Maj. Gen. Sayed Ghoneim (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Maj. Gen. Sayed Ghoneim (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Raging Conflicts Afflict the Middle East Region

Maj. Gen. Sayed Ghoneim (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Maj. Gen. Sayed Ghoneim (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Flaming conflicts have always ailed the world. Most of these disputes have erupted in the heart of the continents of the Old World (Asia, Africa, and Europe), and a few of them have affected the New World.

Today, the world stands afraid of a third world war raging out of escalated fighting in Ukraine. At the same time, there are other conflicts that are just as violent but have figured lower on the agenda of global concerns which is chiefly preoccupied with the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Mounting tensions continue to rage on the sides of the global map, and at the heart of it is the Middle East, which has the lion’s share of raging conflicts.

The Global Conflict Tracker of the US-based Council of Foreign Relations has identified 27 hot spots of live conflict that are still raging worldwide in 2022. The tracker categorizes conflict into three groups: “worsening,” “unchanging,” and “improving.”

Right now, there’s not a single conflict described as “improving.”

According to international experts and political analysts who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat, the repercussions of raging conflicts in and around the Middle East seem more complex than many imagine.

This can be traced back to these tensions attracting interference from regional and international forces that seek managing their interests via local proxies. Not only does foreign interference prolong these conflicts, but it also constantly threatens to have them spill over to neighboring regions, doubling their risk and threat.

A report prepared by the International Crisis Group revealed that six out of ten world conflicts in 2022 are located within the Middle East region.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict, upheaval in Yemen, Afghanistan, Ethiopia, and Iran as well as the spread of terrorism in Africa make the top of the list of the most prominent conflicts during 2022. Hot conflicts in Ukraine, Myanmar, China, Taiwan, and Haiti also make the list, according to the report.

Conflict hotspots in the Middle East aren’t exclusive to the Arab region. The African continent also seems to be a place for both risk and opportunity. A 2021 report prepared by the US-based think tank, the Fund for Peace, said that 11 of the 15 most fragile countries in the world are in Africa.

The slow collapse of states in the Sahel-Saharan region, the expansion of jihadist terrorist groups from Mali to neighboring countries, such as Niger and Burkina Faso, and turmoil following military coups in Mali, Chad and Guinea, put Africa at the heart of ever raging conflicts.

If we take into consideration the civil war in Ethiopia, the African “arc of conflicts” expands to include the east and west of the continent.

The Ethiopian conflict appears to be on the brink of the abyss. Its adverse effects have impacted the unity of the state and the safety of the countries of the region.

“Ethiopia is a large and important country in the region, and it has common borders with several countries,” affirmed International Crisis Group senior analyst William Davidson.

“The absence of strong and stable governments in the country often pushes matters towards volatility, which is reflected in the relations of Addis Ababa with the countries of the region,” explained Davidson to Asharq Al-Awsat.

“Internal crises and conflicts in Ethiopia have cast a shadow over the country’s relations with Egypt and Sudan,” added Davidson.

Ethiopia’s focus on taking vital diplomatic steps to reach a solution to the dispute with Cairo and Khartoum over the Renaissance Dam “is clearly declining with the increasing complexity of the internal crisis.”

The Ethiopian leadership appears to be “distracted” due to the security challenges and internal divisions that have escalated in the recent period, noted Davidson.

This prompted the government to “focus sometimes on the external dimension, blaming Egypt and Sudan to ease the pressures associated with the escalating internal crises.”

In such a case, Ethiopia’s internal crisis has become a key obstacle preventing an agreement between the three countries.

The protracted conflict in Ethiopia and its expansion to neighboring countries may produce serious repercussions throughout the Red Sea and Horn of Africa regions, according to Davidson.

Moreover, Davidson voiced his fears towards the Ethiopian crisis potentially leading to more disintegration and the emergence of more economic and social problems. This could make room for the activity of terrorist groups and irregular actors.

The crises in Syria and Libya represent another example of the overlap between internal and external conflicts, according to Maj. Gen. Sayed Ghoneim.

“It is absurd to imagine that there are cosmic conspiracies running the hot conflicts in the world,” Ghoneim told Asharq Al-Awsat.

“Unfortunately, the theatre of conflict has expanded in our Arab region to include 5 countries: Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Libya and Lebanon,” noted Ghoneim, adding that there are both Arab and non-Arab actors involved in those countries.

Ghoneim believes that many hotbeds of conflict in and around the Arab region attract the attention of regional and international powers in a remarkable way.

He considered this attraction as “natural” given the region’s global significance at the level of international energy and navigation security.

According to Ghoneim, the region oversees the most important straits that control the movement of global trade. Moreover, the region is home to some of the world’s largest oil and gas deposits.

Beyond resources and geography, the region is known for having one of the oldest live conflicts with no prospect for a solution soon. It is the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.

“It is inconceivable that stability will occur in the region in light of the continuation of the Israeli occupation and its persistent violations of international law, treaties and covenants,” said Palestinian researcher Jihad al-Haziran.

Haziran believes that the international will of actors such as the US and some European countries could determine launching a successful peace track for Israelis and Palestinians.

“It seems that the policy of double standards is still in control as these forces provide legal and political cover for the Israeli occupation, through international mechanisms, including the right of veto,” added Haziran.

These facts raise more questions about the price the world is paying because of these flaming conflicts and raise more questions about the efficacy of the solutions being proposed.



What Trump’s New Weapons Plan for Ukraine Might Mean

US President Donald Trump meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, where President Trump announces a deal to send US weapons to Ukraine through NATO, in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, US, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)
US President Donald Trump meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, where President Trump announces a deal to send US weapons to Ukraine through NATO, in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, US, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)
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What Trump’s New Weapons Plan for Ukraine Might Mean

US President Donald Trump meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, where President Trump announces a deal to send US weapons to Ukraine through NATO, in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, US, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)
US President Donald Trump meets with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, where President Trump announces a deal to send US weapons to Ukraine through NATO, in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, US, July 14, 2025. (Reuters)

President Donald Trump has endorsed a plan to have European allies buy billions of dollars worth of US military equipment that can be transferred to Ukraine as Kyiv looks for way to better defend itself against intensified Russian attacks.

Trump announced the effort Monday during an Oval Office meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who has been working with European countries to coordinate the purchase of US weapons.

The plan is designed to allow the US to funnel more firepower to Ukraine to combat invading Russian forces during their summer military offensive while easing Washington's financial burden.

Increased weapons shipments, combined with possible new penalties Trump has promised if a halt to the fighting isn't reached in 50 days, could push Russian President Vladimir Putin into peace talks that Trump has championed for months - so far with little to show for it.

Here's a look at what Trump promised and what it might mean:

The US plans to sell Patriot missile batteries - systems ideal for shielding territory against incoming missile attacks - and other weapons to European allies that would be transferred to Kyiv.

"We're going to supply weapons to NATO at a large amount," Trump said.

Rutte said Germany, Finland, Canada, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom and Denmark would be among the buyers to supply Ukraine, and noted that "speed is of the essence here."

Later Monday, during a meeting with his administration's faith office and business leaders, Trump said, "They're going to deliver the weapons, and they're going to pay for 100% of the weapons."

The president had earlier teased the announcement, but the details of the transfers - exactly what munitions they would include, the specifics of their delivery and their timing- were unclear.

Other parts of the administration deferred to the White House, where officials said details were still being worked out.

On a call with the other foreign ministers of the Quad grouping - India, Japan and Australia - Secretary of State Marco Rubio "underscored that it remains a priority of President Trump to bring the war to an end through a durable negotiated settlement," State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius met with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon to discuss some details - particularly related to the Patriot batteries - and noted greater defense spending.

"We are determined to assume greater responsibility for Europe's deterrence and defense," said Pistorius, whose government has offered to finance two additional Patriot systems.

In addition to Germany, Greece and Spain are among the NATO members believed to have spare Patriots to send to Ukraine, as long as they are eventually replaced.

US officials said that anything to be supplied to Ukraine in the short term will have to come from existing stockpiles and that it will take several years to replace whatever is sent to Kyiv.

Russia has pounded Ukrainian cities with hundreds of drones and cruise and ballistic missiles that its air defenses are struggling to counter. At the same time, Russia's bigger army is making a new effort to drive back Ukrainian defenders on parts of the 620-mile (1,000-kilometer) front line.

Trump announced last week that the US planned to send more defensive weapons to Ukraine, following a prior pause in some deliveries during a review of US stockpiles.

Still, the president expressed frustration about US resources going to Ukraine, reiterating Monday that "this is not Trump's war. We're here to get it finished and stopped."

During the meeting with Rutte, he also praised European leaders for being willing to take on a larger responsibility for arming Ukraine - a far cry from once criticizing Europe for failing to spend more on defense.

"I have to tell you, Europe has a lot of spirit for this war," Trump said. "When I first got involved, I didn't think they did, but they do."

Trump again vented his frustrations about stalled negotiations to end the war, saying the US will impose steep trade penalties if Moscow doesn't reach a peace deal with Kyiv in the next 50 days.

"Tariffs at about 100% - you'd call them secondary tariffs," Trump said without providing details.

Secondary tariffs would target Russia's trading partners in an effort to isolate Moscow in the global economy - potentially including nations that rely on Russia for oil and natural gas.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick later clarified that Trump was actually referring to economic sanctions, rather than tariffs.

Separately, some Republicans close to Trump, including South Carolina Sen. Lindsay Graham, are promoting a bipartisan sanctions package targeting Russia that is working its way through Congress.

Trump said Monday that "I'm not sure we need it" given his threat for economic consequences if the fighting continues. But, he added, "it could be very useful, we'll have to see."

An emboldened Russia has ramped up military offensives on two fronts in Ukraine, seeking an advantage before the fighting season wanes in the fall.

Trump's 50-day deadline will allow Kremlin forces to further expand into the strategic eastern logistics hub of Pokrovsk, the capture of which would hand them a major battlefield victory and bring them closer to acquiring the entire Donetsk region.

Russia's forces also have been pushing into Ukraine's northern Sumy region, where Putin hopes to create a "buffer zone" to protect Russia's Kursk and Belgorod regions and defend against the possibility of surprise Ukrainian incursions.

Trump long boasted of his friendly relationship with Putin, repeatedly asserting that Russia was more willing than Ukraine to reach a peace deal. At the same time, Trump accused Zelenskyy of prolonging the war and called him a "dictator without elections."

But Russia's relentless onslaught on civilian areas of Ukraine has worn down Trump's patience.

In April, he urged Putin to "STOP!" launching deadly barrages on Kyiv, and the following month he said in a social media post that the Russian leader "has gone absolutely CRAZY!"

Trump said Monday that he remains in frequent contact with Putin but questioned how much those talks have gotten him.

"My conversations with him are very pleasant, and then the missiles go off at night," Trump said.