Crisis-hit Iraq Makes Latest Bid to Elect President

Supporters of Iraq's Coordination Framework rally in the Green Zone Ahmad Al-rubaye AFP/File
Supporters of Iraq's Coordination Framework rally in the Green Zone Ahmad Al-rubaye AFP/File
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Crisis-hit Iraq Makes Latest Bid to Elect President

Supporters of Iraq's Coordination Framework rally in the Green Zone Ahmad Al-rubaye AFP/File
Supporters of Iraq's Coordination Framework rally in the Green Zone Ahmad Al-rubaye AFP/File

Lawmakers in crisis-hit Iraq meet Thursday for their fourth attempt this year to elect a state president and break a year-long gridlock marred by deadly violence that has deepened economic woes.

Oil-rich Iraq has yet to form a new government after general elections more than a year ago that were brought forward by a wave of mass protests against endemic corruption, rampant unemployment and decaying infrastructure, AFP said.

This week, the United Nations mission said that "the protracted crisis is breeding further instability" in the war-scarred country, warning of "divisive politics, generating bitter public disillusion".

Parliament is due to convene from 11:00 am (0800 GMT) in Baghdad's Green Zone, the capital's fortified government and diplomatic district that was recently the site of large protest camps set up by rival factions.

Lawmakers in the past three failed attempts to elect a new head of state, in February and March, did not even reach the required two-thirds threshold -- 220 out of 329 -- for a quorum.

Democratic institutions built since the 2003 US-led invasion that toppled dictator Saddam Hussein remain fragile, and neighboring Iran wields major influence.

For the past year, Iraq has not only been without a new government, but also without a state budget, locking up billions in oil revenues and obstructing much-needed reforms and infrastructure projects.

- 30 candidates, three front runners -
Iraq's rival Shiite Muslim political factions have been vying for influence and the right to select a new premier and form a government, with Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhemi left in charge in a caretaker capacity.

On one hand is the fiery cleric Moqtada Sadr, who wants parliament dissolved and new elections.

On the other sits the Coordination Framework, an alliance of pro-Iran Shiite factions -- including former paramilitaries -- that wants a new government before fresh elections are held.

The standoff has seen both sides set up protest camps, and at times has sparked deadly street clashes in Baghdad.

Tensions boiled over on August 29 when more than 30 Sadr supporters were killed in battles between Iran-backed factions and the army.

The largely honorific post of Iraqi president is traditionally reserved for a Kurd.

It generally goes to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), while the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) keeps control over the affairs of autonomous Kurdistan in northern Iraq.

However, the KDP is also eyeing the presidency and could present its own candidate.

"It is still not clear that the Kurdish parties have come to an agreement on a president," said Hamzeh Hadad, a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank.

Among the 30 candidates, top contenders include the incumbent, President Barham Saleh of the PUK, aged 61, and current Kurdistan Interior Minister Rebar Ahmed of the KDP, aged 54.

Abdel Latif Rashid, aged 78, a former water resources minister and ex-PUK leader running as an independent, has been suggested as a potential consensus candidate.

But the race remains open.

"Any president, that is not the strongest candidate of either the two main Kurdish parties will struggle to make a mark in Baghdad," said analyst Lahib Higel from the International Crisis Group.

- Next step, new PM -
Once elected, the president will appoint a prime minister -– chosen by the largest coalition in parliament –- who will then begin arduous negotiations to choose their cabinet.

"What is expected is that whoever is chosen, will designate a prime minister right away to form a government," said Hadad.

Key runners for prime minister are the Coordination Framework's candidate, former minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, 52.

Hadad believes Sudani is the most likely to be premier, but noted that "anything can change in Iraqi politics till the last minute".

The pro-Iran Coordination Framework draws together the Fatah alliance and lawmakers from the party of Sadr's longtime foe, former prime minister Nuri al-Maliki.

When Sudani was proposed in July, it sparked mass protests outraged Sadr supporters, who breached the Green Zone and stormed parliament.



Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
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Lancet Study Estimates Gaza Death Toll 40% Higher Than Recorded

Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)
Palestinians walk through the destruction in the wake of an Israeli air and ground offensive in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory's health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group's unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However, the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time, AFP reported.

The study's best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, "or approximately one in 35 inhabitants," the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza's health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry's figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

- 'A good estimate' -

The researchers used a statistical method called "capture-recapture" that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and Whatsapp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

"We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital," lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told AFP.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

"Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed," Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball told AFP the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached "a good estimate" for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain's Open University, told AFP there was "inevitably a lot of uncertainty" when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was "admirable" that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

"Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

- 'Criticism' expected from both sides -

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems -- such as a heart attack -- could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However, there were other ways that the war's toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of healthcare, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection "might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease" in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that "criticism is going to come from different sides" about the new research.

She spoke out against the "obsession" of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that "we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”