What’s Next as Iraq Moves to End Deadlock?

Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)
Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)
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What’s Next as Iraq Moves to End Deadlock?

Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)
Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)

Iraqi lawmakers have elected a new president who swiftly named a prime minister in the hope of ending a year of political gridlock and deadly violence.

But major challenges lie ahead for the crisis-hit nation.

How will government talks play out?

Iraq's parliament, dominated by the pro-Iran Coordination Framework of Shiite factions, elected on Thursday a new president, 78-year-old Kurdish former minister Abdul Latif Rashid.

The new head of state moved immediately to task Shiite politician Mohammad Shia al-Sudani with forming a government, capping a whole year of deadlock between major parties since Iraq last went to the polls in October 2021.

In multi-ethnic, multi-confessional Iraq, where political alliances and coalitions constantly shift, divisions between feuding factions might resurface and complicate Sudani's efforts in the 30 days afforded to him to form a government capable of commanding a majority in parliament.

In the past, constitutional deadlines have been routinely missed amid protracted political wrangling.

"Once we start discussing who becomes minister, but even more critically who gains more leverage over the senior civil service, government agencies, state coffers -- that's when we will continue to see the fragmentation and stalemate play out," said Renad Mansour of British think-tank Chatham House.

He explained that Iraq is headed for "another power-sharing government", where political parties will "try and divide the country's wealth".

And the stakes are high. A colossal $87 billion in revenues from oil exports are locked up in the central bank's coffers.

The money can help rebuild infrastructure in the war-ravaged country, but it can only be invested after lawmakers approve a state budget presented by the government, once formed.

What will Sadr do?

The future government's hands may be tied by influential Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr, capable of mobilizing tens of thousands of his supporters with a single tweet.

In June, he had ordered the 73 lawmakers in his bloc to resign, leaving parliament in the hands of the rival Coordination Framework, which now controls 138 out of 329 seats in the legislature.

This pro-Iranian alliance includes the political arm of the former paramilitary Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), as well as Sadr's longtime rival, former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki.

Political analyst Ali al-Baidar noted the Sadrist movement has kept uncharacteristically "quiet".

It may be that their leader has been "giving the political forces a chance", but it could also be the result of "an agreement offering the movement some" government positions in return for their tacit approval of Sudani's nomination, Baidar said.

Tensions between the two rival Shiite camps boiled over on August 29 when more than 30 Sadr supporters were killed in clashes with Iran-backed factions and the army in Baghdad's Green Zone, which houses government buildings and diplomatic missions.

"It remains a precarious state of affairs," Mansour said.

"Sadr will remain on the margins of the political scene, trying to disrupt and use protests to replace the political capital" he lost in parliament, the researcher added.

Sadr is "hoping to force an early election using controlled instability as he always has, to maintain his power and leverage in negotiations.

"But mistakes in the past few months have... put him in a difficult bargaining position," Mansour continued.

Is there hope for change?

Political analyst Baidar said the "consensus" on Rashid's appointment means a government will be formed relatively easily, but stressed the "colossal tasks" ahead.

Nearly four out of 10 young Iraqis are unemployed and one-third of the oil-rich country's population of 42 million lives in poverty, according to the United Nations.

Prime minister-designate Sudani vowed on Thursday to push through "economic reforms" that would revitalize Iraq's industry, agriculture and private sector.

He also promised to provide young Iraqis "employment opportunities and housing".

According to Baidar, a "growing" global interest in Iraqi politics -- specifically from Washington, Paris and London -- could "force politicians to perform better".

"While Iraq is by no means a poor country, private and partisan interests conspire to divert resources away from critical investment in national development," UN envoy Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert told the Security Council last week.

"Iraq's political and governance system ignores the needs of the Iraqi people," she charged.

"Pervasive corruption is a major root cause of Iraqi dysfunctionality. And frankly, no leader can claim to be shielded from it."

A pessimistic Mansour said "public life will remain as it is".

"People will still not have their basic rights, water, healthcare, electricity."



UNRWA Employee Shares with Asharq Al-Awsat Experience of Investigation

UNRWA center targeted by Israeli shelling in northern Gaza (DPA)
UNRWA center targeted by Israeli shelling in northern Gaza (DPA)
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UNRWA Employee Shares with Asharq Al-Awsat Experience of Investigation

UNRWA center targeted by Israeli shelling in northern Gaza (DPA)
UNRWA center targeted by Israeli shelling in northern Gaza (DPA)

Palestinian sources told Asharq Al-Awsat that the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) has stepped up its investigations into employees suspected of links to Hamas over the past two months.

This move comes in response to a heightened Israeli campaign against UNRWA, which includes claims of its ties to Hamas.

To counter these accusations, the agency is taking steps to provide evidence that refutes them.

These actions are part of UNRWA’s efforts to protect its humanitarian mission, which has faced increasing challenges amid rising tensions in the region.

In recent years, UNRWA has been targeted by an expanding Israeli campaign, especially following the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks.

The accusations include allegations that its staff were involved in the attacks and helped protect Israeli captives. In response, the Israeli Knesset has sought to ban UNRWA’s operations and cut all ties with the agency.

UNRWA Investigates Employees Amid Israeli Allegations

UNRWA is investigating employees linked to the Oct. 7 attacks, based on names provided in Israeli reports to international agencies.

Sources confirmed that UNRWA has broadened its inquiries to include additional staff suspected of ties to Hamas, relying on connections to those already named by Israel.

One employee, questioned due to his inclusion in these Israeli lists, stated that no evidence linked him to the attack or to Hamas, leading to no action against them.

Speaking anonymously to Asharq Al-Awsat, the employee said the investigations focused on whether staff participated in the attacks or were involved in Hamas-related activities, including hiding Israeli captives.

They noted that the questioning involved both foreign and Palestinian officials and was very detailed, asking about participation in Hamas meetings. Of the 16 employees they knew who were investigated, only three faced genuine accusations.

UNRWA has rejected Israel’s claims, stating it will conduct its own investigation.

Spokesperson Adnan Abu Hasna emphasized that Israel has not provided evidence for its allegations against UNRWA employees over the past 15 years, despite UNRWA submitting annual lists of staff members.

Meanwhile, Israel has continued its accusations, recently announcing the killing of Mohammed Abu Atiwi, identified as a commander responsible for the Oct. 7 attack on a festival in southern Israel. Before that, Israel targeted other UNRWA workers, claiming they were Hamas operatives while distributing aid.

Asharq Al-Awsat has learned that Abu Atiwi, recently named in Israeli reports, had left UNRWA years ago and has no current connection to the organization.

This also applies to several others mentioned in the Israeli lists submitted to the UN.

The news about Atiwi emerged just days before the Israeli Knesset passed a law banning UNRWA’s operations within Israel. Israel had already cut ties with UNRWA in Gaza prior to this decision.

Sources revealed that various international organizations have recently hired UNRWA employees to deliver humanitarian aid in Gaza. These organizations provided employee names to Israel before deployment due to ongoing Israeli claims that UNRWA employs Hamas activists to divert aid.

This measure aimed to prevent further Israeli attacks on UNRWA staff involved in aid distribution.

It is still uncertain how the Knesset’s decision will affect UNRWA. According to Israeli newspaper Haaretz, the law will mainly impact Palestinians in Jerusalem but will also affect operations in Gaza and the West Bank, blocking aid deliveries and halting funding for employee salaries and services for refugees in those areas. This comes as the region continues to face conflict for over a year.

The new Israeli law banning UNRWA has drawn widespread condemnation from Palestinian, Arab, and international organizations, including the US.

Philippe Lazzarini, UNRWA’s Commissioner-General, warned that dismantling the agency would have devastating effects on the humanitarian response in Gaza.