What’s Next as Iraq Moves to End Deadlock?

Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)
Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)
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What’s Next as Iraq Moves to End Deadlock?

Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)
Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)

Iraqi lawmakers have elected a new president who swiftly named a prime minister in the hope of ending a year of political gridlock and deadly violence.

But major challenges lie ahead for the crisis-hit nation.

How will government talks play out?

Iraq's parliament, dominated by the pro-Iran Coordination Framework of Shiite factions, elected on Thursday a new president, 78-year-old Kurdish former minister Abdul Latif Rashid.

The new head of state moved immediately to task Shiite politician Mohammad Shia al-Sudani with forming a government, capping a whole year of deadlock between major parties since Iraq last went to the polls in October 2021.

In multi-ethnic, multi-confessional Iraq, where political alliances and coalitions constantly shift, divisions between feuding factions might resurface and complicate Sudani's efforts in the 30 days afforded to him to form a government capable of commanding a majority in parliament.

In the past, constitutional deadlines have been routinely missed amid protracted political wrangling.

"Once we start discussing who becomes minister, but even more critically who gains more leverage over the senior civil service, government agencies, state coffers -- that's when we will continue to see the fragmentation and stalemate play out," said Renad Mansour of British think-tank Chatham House.

He explained that Iraq is headed for "another power-sharing government", where political parties will "try and divide the country's wealth".

And the stakes are high. A colossal $87 billion in revenues from oil exports are locked up in the central bank's coffers.

The money can help rebuild infrastructure in the war-ravaged country, but it can only be invested after lawmakers approve a state budget presented by the government, once formed.

What will Sadr do?

The future government's hands may be tied by influential Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr, capable of mobilizing tens of thousands of his supporters with a single tweet.

In June, he had ordered the 73 lawmakers in his bloc to resign, leaving parliament in the hands of the rival Coordination Framework, which now controls 138 out of 329 seats in the legislature.

This pro-Iranian alliance includes the political arm of the former paramilitary Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), as well as Sadr's longtime rival, former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki.

Political analyst Ali al-Baidar noted the Sadrist movement has kept uncharacteristically "quiet".

It may be that their leader has been "giving the political forces a chance", but it could also be the result of "an agreement offering the movement some" government positions in return for their tacit approval of Sudani's nomination, Baidar said.

Tensions between the two rival Shiite camps boiled over on August 29 when more than 30 Sadr supporters were killed in clashes with Iran-backed factions and the army in Baghdad's Green Zone, which houses government buildings and diplomatic missions.

"It remains a precarious state of affairs," Mansour said.

"Sadr will remain on the margins of the political scene, trying to disrupt and use protests to replace the political capital" he lost in parliament, the researcher added.

Sadr is "hoping to force an early election using controlled instability as he always has, to maintain his power and leverage in negotiations.

"But mistakes in the past few months have... put him in a difficult bargaining position," Mansour continued.

Is there hope for change?

Political analyst Baidar said the "consensus" on Rashid's appointment means a government will be formed relatively easily, but stressed the "colossal tasks" ahead.

Nearly four out of 10 young Iraqis are unemployed and one-third of the oil-rich country's population of 42 million lives in poverty, according to the United Nations.

Prime minister-designate Sudani vowed on Thursday to push through "economic reforms" that would revitalize Iraq's industry, agriculture and private sector.

He also promised to provide young Iraqis "employment opportunities and housing".

According to Baidar, a "growing" global interest in Iraqi politics -- specifically from Washington, Paris and London -- could "force politicians to perform better".

"While Iraq is by no means a poor country, private and partisan interests conspire to divert resources away from critical investment in national development," UN envoy Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert told the Security Council last week.

"Iraq's political and governance system ignores the needs of the Iraqi people," she charged.

"Pervasive corruption is a major root cause of Iraqi dysfunctionality. And frankly, no leader can claim to be shielded from it."

A pessimistic Mansour said "public life will remain as it is".

"People will still not have their basic rights, water, healthcare, electricity."



School’s Out: Climate Change Keeps Pakistan Students Home

A schoolgirl drinks water after her classes, on a hot summer day in Lahore on May 26, 2025, as state government announced early summer vacations for schools owing to rising temperatures. (AFP)
A schoolgirl drinks water after her classes, on a hot summer day in Lahore on May 26, 2025, as state government announced early summer vacations for schools owing to rising temperatures. (AFP)
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School’s Out: Climate Change Keeps Pakistan Students Home

A schoolgirl drinks water after her classes, on a hot summer day in Lahore on May 26, 2025, as state government announced early summer vacations for schools owing to rising temperatures. (AFP)
A schoolgirl drinks water after her classes, on a hot summer day in Lahore on May 26, 2025, as state government announced early summer vacations for schools owing to rising temperatures. (AFP)

Pakistan's children are losing weeks of education each year to school closures caused by climate change-linked extreme weather, prompting calls for a radical rethink of learning schedules.

Searing heat, toxic smog and unusual cold snaps have all caused closures that are meant to spare children the health risks of learning in classrooms that are often overcrowded and lack basic cooling, heating or ventilation systems.

In May, a nationwide heatwave saw temperatures up to seven degrees Celsius above normal, hitting 45C (113 degrees Fahrenheit) in Punjab and prompting several provinces to cut school hours or start summer holidays early.

"The class becomes so hot that it feels like we are sitting in a brick kiln," said 17-year-old Hafiz Ehtesham outside an inner-city Lahore school.

"I don't even want to come to school."

Pakistan is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change, with limited resources for adaptation, and extreme weather is compounding an existing education crisis caused mostly by access and poverty.

"Soon we will have major cognitive challenges because students are being impacted by extreme heat and extreme smog over long periods of time," said Lahore-based education activist Baela Raza Jamil.

"The poorest are most vulnerable. But climate change is indeed a great leveler and the urban middle class is also affected."

Pakistan's summers historically began in June, when temperatures hit the high 40s. But in the last five years, May has been similarly hot, according to the Meteorological Department.

"During a power outage, I was sweating so much that the drops were falling off my forehead onto my desk," 15-year-old Jannat, a student in Lahore, told AFP.

"A girl in my class had a nosebleed from the heat."

- Health versus learning -

Around a third of Pakistani school-age children -- over 26 million -- are out of school, according to government figures, one of the highest numbers in the world.

And 65 percent of children are unable to read age-appropriate material by age 10.

School closures affect almost every part of Pakistan, including the country's most populous province Punjab, which has the highest rates of school attendance.

Classes closed for two weeks in November over air pollution, and another week in May because of heat. In the previous academic year, three weeks were lost in January to a cold snap and two weeks in May due to heat.

Political unrest and cricket matches that closed roads meant more lost days.

In Balochistan, Pakistan's poorest province, May heatwaves have prompted early summer vacations for three years running, while in northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, school hours are regularly slashed.

For authorities, the choice is often between sending children to school in potentially dangerous conditions or watching them fall behind.

In southern Sindh province, authorities have resisted heat-related closures despite growing demands from parents.

"It's hard for parents to send their children to school in this kind of weather," private school principal Sadiq Hussain told AFP in Karachi, adding that attendance drops by 25 percent in May.

"Their physical and mental health is being affected," added Dost Mohammad Danish, general secretary of All Sindh Private Schools and Colleges Association.

"Don't expect better scientists from Pakistan in the coming years."

- 'Everyone is suffering' -

Schools in Pakistan are overseen by provincial authorities, whose closure notices apply to all schools in a region, even when they are hundreds of kilometers (miles) apart and may be experiencing different conditions, or have different resources to cope.

Teachers, parents and education experts want a rethink of school hours, exam timetables and vacations, with schools able to offer Saturday classes or split the school day to avoid the midday heat.

Izza Farrakh, a senior education specialist at the World Bank, said climate change-related impacts are affecting attendance and learning outcomes.

"Schools need to have flexibility in determining their academic calendar. It shouldn't be centralized," she said, adding that end-of-year exams usually taken in May could be replaced by regular assessments throughout the year.

Adapting school buildings is also crucial.

International development agencies have already equipped thousands of schools with solar panels, but many more of the country's 250,000 schools need help.

Hundreds of climate-resilient schools funded by World Bank loans are being built in Sindh. They are elevated to withstand monsoon flooding, and fitted with solar panels for power and rooftop insulation to combat heat and cold.

But in Pakistan's most impoverished villages, where education is a route out of generational poverty, parents still face tough choices.

In rural Sukkur, the local school was among 27,000 damaged or destroyed by unprecedented 2022 floods. Children learn outside their half-collapsed school building, unprotected from the elements.

"Our children are worried, and we are deeply concerned," said parent Ali Gohar Gandhu, a daily wage laborer. "Everyone is suffering."