What’s Next as Iraq Moves to End Deadlock?

Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)
Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)
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What’s Next as Iraq Moves to End Deadlock?

Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)
Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)

Iraqi lawmakers have elected a new president who swiftly named a prime minister in the hope of ending a year of political gridlock and deadly violence.

But major challenges lie ahead for the crisis-hit nation.

How will government talks play out?

Iraq's parliament, dominated by the pro-Iran Coordination Framework of Shiite factions, elected on Thursday a new president, 78-year-old Kurdish former minister Abdul Latif Rashid.

The new head of state moved immediately to task Shiite politician Mohammad Shia al-Sudani with forming a government, capping a whole year of deadlock between major parties since Iraq last went to the polls in October 2021.

In multi-ethnic, multi-confessional Iraq, where political alliances and coalitions constantly shift, divisions between feuding factions might resurface and complicate Sudani's efforts in the 30 days afforded to him to form a government capable of commanding a majority in parliament.

In the past, constitutional deadlines have been routinely missed amid protracted political wrangling.

"Once we start discussing who becomes minister, but even more critically who gains more leverage over the senior civil service, government agencies, state coffers -- that's when we will continue to see the fragmentation and stalemate play out," said Renad Mansour of British think-tank Chatham House.

He explained that Iraq is headed for "another power-sharing government", where political parties will "try and divide the country's wealth".

And the stakes are high. A colossal $87 billion in revenues from oil exports are locked up in the central bank's coffers.

The money can help rebuild infrastructure in the war-ravaged country, but it can only be invested after lawmakers approve a state budget presented by the government, once formed.

What will Sadr do?

The future government's hands may be tied by influential Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr, capable of mobilizing tens of thousands of his supporters with a single tweet.

In June, he had ordered the 73 lawmakers in his bloc to resign, leaving parliament in the hands of the rival Coordination Framework, which now controls 138 out of 329 seats in the legislature.

This pro-Iranian alliance includes the political arm of the former paramilitary Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), as well as Sadr's longtime rival, former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki.

Political analyst Ali al-Baidar noted the Sadrist movement has kept uncharacteristically "quiet".

It may be that their leader has been "giving the political forces a chance", but it could also be the result of "an agreement offering the movement some" government positions in return for their tacit approval of Sudani's nomination, Baidar said.

Tensions between the two rival Shiite camps boiled over on August 29 when more than 30 Sadr supporters were killed in clashes with Iran-backed factions and the army in Baghdad's Green Zone, which houses government buildings and diplomatic missions.

"It remains a precarious state of affairs," Mansour said.

"Sadr will remain on the margins of the political scene, trying to disrupt and use protests to replace the political capital" he lost in parliament, the researcher added.

Sadr is "hoping to force an early election using controlled instability as he always has, to maintain his power and leverage in negotiations.

"But mistakes in the past few months have... put him in a difficult bargaining position," Mansour continued.

Is there hope for change?

Political analyst Baidar said the "consensus" on Rashid's appointment means a government will be formed relatively easily, but stressed the "colossal tasks" ahead.

Nearly four out of 10 young Iraqis are unemployed and one-third of the oil-rich country's population of 42 million lives in poverty, according to the United Nations.

Prime minister-designate Sudani vowed on Thursday to push through "economic reforms" that would revitalize Iraq's industry, agriculture and private sector.

He also promised to provide young Iraqis "employment opportunities and housing".

According to Baidar, a "growing" global interest in Iraqi politics -- specifically from Washington, Paris and London -- could "force politicians to perform better".

"While Iraq is by no means a poor country, private and partisan interests conspire to divert resources away from critical investment in national development," UN envoy Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert told the Security Council last week.

"Iraq's political and governance system ignores the needs of the Iraqi people," she charged.

"Pervasive corruption is a major root cause of Iraqi dysfunctionality. And frankly, no leader can claim to be shielded from it."

A pessimistic Mansour said "public life will remain as it is".

"People will still not have their basic rights, water, healthcare, electricity."



What We Know About Hezbollah’s Shura Council

Lebanese in Beirut watch Naim Qassem deliver a speech. (Reuters)
Lebanese in Beirut watch Naim Qassem deliver a speech. (Reuters)
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What We Know About Hezbollah’s Shura Council

Lebanese in Beirut watch Naim Qassem deliver a speech. (Reuters)
Lebanese in Beirut watch Naim Qassem deliver a speech. (Reuters)

If it is confirmed that Hezbollah’s Shura Council has met and elected Sheikh Naim Qassem as the party’s new secretary-general, this would indicate two important developments, according to sources close to the group.

First, it shows that Hezbollah has restructured and revitalized itself after facing major setbacks, as it can now hold meetings with senior leaders despite significant security risks.

Second, it counters rumors that Tehran controls the party’s political and military leadership since the assassination of secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah last month.

Hezbollah’s organizational structure includes several councils: the Shura Council, Jihad Council, Executive Council, Political Council, Governmental and Parliamentary Work Council, and Judiciary Council.

The Shura Council is the most critical, as it leads the party.

It is made up of seven members, including the secretary-general, who is also its head—now Qassem.

Other members include Sheikh Mohammed Yazbek, head of the Judiciary Council; Sheikh Ibrahim Amin al-Sayyid, head of the Political Council; Hashem Safieddine, the recently assassinated head of the Executive Council and presumed Nasrallah successor; Hussein Khalil, the political assistant to the secretary-general; and Mohammad Raad, head of the Parliamentary Council and leader of the Loyalty to the Resistance bloc in the Lebanese Parliament.

With the appointment of a new secretary-general, two positions on Hezbollah’s Shura Council remain unfilled: the deputy secretary-general and the head of the Executive Council.

Political analyst Dr. Qassem Qassir, who closely monitors the group, points out that a deputy has yet to be named. He told Asharq Al-Awsat that the appointment of a secretary-general is significant, sending a message that Hezbollah is strong and in control of its affairs.

“It is incorrect to say that Iran is running it,” he added.

Qassir believes the remaining council positions will be filled soon.

Other sources indicate that even if a deputy is appointed, their identity may not be disclosed right away.

This is because, like Qassem, they would become a key target for Israel, which aims to keep Hezbollah leaderless.

Hezbollah’s organizational structure comprises three main components. First, the secretary-general acts as the leader, holding significant regulatory authority.

Second, the Shura Council oversees four key councils: the Jihad Council, the Judiciary Council, the Parliamentary Work Council, and the Political Council.

Third, the Executive Council serves as the organizational core, functioning like a government and coordinating various operational units.