What’s Next as Iraq Moves to End Deadlock?

Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)
Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)
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What’s Next as Iraq Moves to End Deadlock?

Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)
Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)

Iraqi lawmakers have elected a new president who swiftly named a prime minister in the hope of ending a year of political gridlock and deadly violence.

But major challenges lie ahead for the crisis-hit nation.

How will government talks play out?

Iraq's parliament, dominated by the pro-Iran Coordination Framework of Shiite factions, elected on Thursday a new president, 78-year-old Kurdish former minister Abdul Latif Rashid.

The new head of state moved immediately to task Shiite politician Mohammad Shia al-Sudani with forming a government, capping a whole year of deadlock between major parties since Iraq last went to the polls in October 2021.

In multi-ethnic, multi-confessional Iraq, where political alliances and coalitions constantly shift, divisions between feuding factions might resurface and complicate Sudani's efforts in the 30 days afforded to him to form a government capable of commanding a majority in parliament.

In the past, constitutional deadlines have been routinely missed amid protracted political wrangling.

"Once we start discussing who becomes minister, but even more critically who gains more leverage over the senior civil service, government agencies, state coffers -- that's when we will continue to see the fragmentation and stalemate play out," said Renad Mansour of British think-tank Chatham House.

He explained that Iraq is headed for "another power-sharing government", where political parties will "try and divide the country's wealth".

And the stakes are high. A colossal $87 billion in revenues from oil exports are locked up in the central bank's coffers.

The money can help rebuild infrastructure in the war-ravaged country, but it can only be invested after lawmakers approve a state budget presented by the government, once formed.

What will Sadr do?

The future government's hands may be tied by influential Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr, capable of mobilizing tens of thousands of his supporters with a single tweet.

In June, he had ordered the 73 lawmakers in his bloc to resign, leaving parliament in the hands of the rival Coordination Framework, which now controls 138 out of 329 seats in the legislature.

This pro-Iranian alliance includes the political arm of the former paramilitary Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), as well as Sadr's longtime rival, former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki.

Political analyst Ali al-Baidar noted the Sadrist movement has kept uncharacteristically "quiet".

It may be that their leader has been "giving the political forces a chance", but it could also be the result of "an agreement offering the movement some" government positions in return for their tacit approval of Sudani's nomination, Baidar said.

Tensions between the two rival Shiite camps boiled over on August 29 when more than 30 Sadr supporters were killed in clashes with Iran-backed factions and the army in Baghdad's Green Zone, which houses government buildings and diplomatic missions.

"It remains a precarious state of affairs," Mansour said.

"Sadr will remain on the margins of the political scene, trying to disrupt and use protests to replace the political capital" he lost in parliament, the researcher added.

Sadr is "hoping to force an early election using controlled instability as he always has, to maintain his power and leverage in negotiations.

"But mistakes in the past few months have... put him in a difficult bargaining position," Mansour continued.

Is there hope for change?

Political analyst Baidar said the "consensus" on Rashid's appointment means a government will be formed relatively easily, but stressed the "colossal tasks" ahead.

Nearly four out of 10 young Iraqis are unemployed and one-third of the oil-rich country's population of 42 million lives in poverty, according to the United Nations.

Prime minister-designate Sudani vowed on Thursday to push through "economic reforms" that would revitalize Iraq's industry, agriculture and private sector.

He also promised to provide young Iraqis "employment opportunities and housing".

According to Baidar, a "growing" global interest in Iraqi politics -- specifically from Washington, Paris and London -- could "force politicians to perform better".

"While Iraq is by no means a poor country, private and partisan interests conspire to divert resources away from critical investment in national development," UN envoy Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert told the Security Council last week.

"Iraq's political and governance system ignores the needs of the Iraqi people," she charged.

"Pervasive corruption is a major root cause of Iraqi dysfunctionality. And frankly, no leader can claim to be shielded from it."

A pessimistic Mansour said "public life will remain as it is".

"People will still not have their basic rights, water, healthcare, electricity."



Little Hope in Gaza that Arrest Warrants will Cool Israeli Onslaught

Palestinians gather to buy bread from a bakery, amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip November 22, 2024. REUTERS/Hussam Al-Masri Purchase Licensing Rights
Palestinians gather to buy bread from a bakery, amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip November 22, 2024. REUTERS/Hussam Al-Masri Purchase Licensing Rights
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Little Hope in Gaza that Arrest Warrants will Cool Israeli Onslaught

Palestinians gather to buy bread from a bakery, amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip November 22, 2024. REUTERS/Hussam Al-Masri Purchase Licensing Rights
Palestinians gather to buy bread from a bakery, amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip November 22, 2024. REUTERS/Hussam Al-Masri Purchase Licensing Rights

Gazans saw little hope on Friday that International Criminal Court arrest warrants for Israeli leaders would slow down the onslaught on the Palestinian territory, where medics said at least 24 people were killed in fresh Israeli military strikes.

In Gaza City in the north, an Israeli strike on a house in Shejaia killed eight people, medics said. Three others were killed in a strike near a bakery and a fisherman was killed as he set out to sea. In the central and southern areas, 12 people were killed in three separate Israeli airstrikes.

Meanwhile, Israeli forces deepened their incursion and bombardment of the northern edge of the enclave, their main offensive since early last month. The military says it aims to prevent Hamas fighters from waging attacks and regrouping there; residents say they fear the aim is to permanently depopulate a strip of territory as a buffer zone, which Israel denies.

Residents in the three besieged towns on the northern edge - Jabalia, Beit Lahiya and Beit Hanoun - said Israeli forces had blown up dozens of houses.

An Israeli strike hit the Kamal Adwan Hospital in Beit Lahiya, one of three medical facilities barely operational in the area, injuring six medical staff, some critically, the Gaza health ministry said in a statement, Reuters reported.

"The strike also destroyed the hospital's main generator, and punctured the water tanks, leaving the hospital without oxygen or water, which threatens the lives of patients and staff inside the hospital," it added. It said 85 wounded people including children and women were inside, eight in the ICU.

Later on Friday, the Gaza health ministry said all hospital services across the enclave would stop within 48 hours unless fuel shipments are permitted, blaming restrictions which Israel says are designed to stop fuel being used by Hamas.

Gazans saw the ICC's decision to seek the arrest of Israeli leaders for suspected war crimes as international recognition of the enclave's plight. But those queuing for bread at a bakery in the southern city of Khan Younis were doubtful it would have any impact.

"The decision will not be implemented because America protects Israel, and it can veto anything. Israel will not be held accountable," said Saber Abu Ghali, as he waited for his turn in the crowd.

Saeed Abu Youssef, 75, said even if justice were to arrive, it would be decades late: "We have been hearing decisions for more than 76 years that have not been implemented and haven't done anything for us."

Since Hamas's October 7th attack on Israel, nearly 44,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza, much of which has been laid to waste.

The court's prosecutors said there were reasonable grounds to believe Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant were criminally responsible for acts including murder, persecution, and starvation as a weapon of war, as part of a "widespread and systematic attack against the civilian population of Gaza".

The Hague-based court also ordered the arrest of the top Hamas commander Ibrahim Al-Masri, also known as Mohammed Deif. Israel says it has already killed him, which Hamas has not confirmed.

Israel says Hamas is to blame for all harm to Gaza's civilians, for operating among them, which Hamas denies.

Israeli politicians from across the political spectrum have denounced the ICC arrest warrants as biased and based on false evidence, and Israel says the court has no jurisdiction over the war. Hamas hailed the arrest warrants as a first step towards justice.

Efforts by Arab mediators Qatar and Egypt backed by the United States to conclude a ceasefire deal have stalled. Hamas wants a deal that ends the war, while Netanyahu has vowed the war can end only once Hamas is eradicated.