What’s Next as Iraq Moves to End Deadlock?

Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)
Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)
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What’s Next as Iraq Moves to End Deadlock?

Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)
Abdul Latif Rashid takes his oath of office in front of Iraqi lawmakers in Baghdad, Iraq, October 13, 2022. (Iraqi Parliament Media Office/Handout via Reuters)

Iraqi lawmakers have elected a new president who swiftly named a prime minister in the hope of ending a year of political gridlock and deadly violence.

But major challenges lie ahead for the crisis-hit nation.

How will government talks play out?

Iraq's parliament, dominated by the pro-Iran Coordination Framework of Shiite factions, elected on Thursday a new president, 78-year-old Kurdish former minister Abdul Latif Rashid.

The new head of state moved immediately to task Shiite politician Mohammad Shia al-Sudani with forming a government, capping a whole year of deadlock between major parties since Iraq last went to the polls in October 2021.

In multi-ethnic, multi-confessional Iraq, where political alliances and coalitions constantly shift, divisions between feuding factions might resurface and complicate Sudani's efforts in the 30 days afforded to him to form a government capable of commanding a majority in parliament.

In the past, constitutional deadlines have been routinely missed amid protracted political wrangling.

"Once we start discussing who becomes minister, but even more critically who gains more leverage over the senior civil service, government agencies, state coffers -- that's when we will continue to see the fragmentation and stalemate play out," said Renad Mansour of British think-tank Chatham House.

He explained that Iraq is headed for "another power-sharing government", where political parties will "try and divide the country's wealth".

And the stakes are high. A colossal $87 billion in revenues from oil exports are locked up in the central bank's coffers.

The money can help rebuild infrastructure in the war-ravaged country, but it can only be invested after lawmakers approve a state budget presented by the government, once formed.

What will Sadr do?

The future government's hands may be tied by influential Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr, capable of mobilizing tens of thousands of his supporters with a single tweet.

In June, he had ordered the 73 lawmakers in his bloc to resign, leaving parliament in the hands of the rival Coordination Framework, which now controls 138 out of 329 seats in the legislature.

This pro-Iranian alliance includes the political arm of the former paramilitary Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), as well as Sadr's longtime rival, former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki.

Political analyst Ali al-Baidar noted the Sadrist movement has kept uncharacteristically "quiet".

It may be that their leader has been "giving the political forces a chance", but it could also be the result of "an agreement offering the movement some" government positions in return for their tacit approval of Sudani's nomination, Baidar said.

Tensions between the two rival Shiite camps boiled over on August 29 when more than 30 Sadr supporters were killed in clashes with Iran-backed factions and the army in Baghdad's Green Zone, which houses government buildings and diplomatic missions.

"It remains a precarious state of affairs," Mansour said.

"Sadr will remain on the margins of the political scene, trying to disrupt and use protests to replace the political capital" he lost in parliament, the researcher added.

Sadr is "hoping to force an early election using controlled instability as he always has, to maintain his power and leverage in negotiations.

"But mistakes in the past few months have... put him in a difficult bargaining position," Mansour continued.

Is there hope for change?

Political analyst Baidar said the "consensus" on Rashid's appointment means a government will be formed relatively easily, but stressed the "colossal tasks" ahead.

Nearly four out of 10 young Iraqis are unemployed and one-third of the oil-rich country's population of 42 million lives in poverty, according to the United Nations.

Prime minister-designate Sudani vowed on Thursday to push through "economic reforms" that would revitalize Iraq's industry, agriculture and private sector.

He also promised to provide young Iraqis "employment opportunities and housing".

According to Baidar, a "growing" global interest in Iraqi politics -- specifically from Washington, Paris and London -- could "force politicians to perform better".

"While Iraq is by no means a poor country, private and partisan interests conspire to divert resources away from critical investment in national development," UN envoy Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert told the Security Council last week.

"Iraq's political and governance system ignores the needs of the Iraqi people," she charged.

"Pervasive corruption is a major root cause of Iraqi dysfunctionality. And frankly, no leader can claim to be shielded from it."

A pessimistic Mansour said "public life will remain as it is".

"People will still not have their basic rights, water, healthcare, electricity."



Palestinians Say 100,000 Residents Trapped in Israel's North Gaza Assault

Israeli tanks take position at the Israel-Gaza border, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, as seen from Israel, October 15, 2024. REUTERS/Amir Cohen/File Photo
Israeli tanks take position at the Israel-Gaza border, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, as seen from Israel, October 15, 2024. REUTERS/Amir Cohen/File Photo
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Palestinians Say 100,000 Residents Trapped in Israel's North Gaza Assault

Israeli tanks take position at the Israel-Gaza border, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, as seen from Israel, October 15, 2024. REUTERS/Amir Cohen/File Photo
Israeli tanks take position at the Israel-Gaza border, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, as seen from Israel, October 15, 2024. REUTERS/Amir Cohen/File Photo

Israeli tanks thrust deeper on Monday into two north Gaza towns and a historic refugee camp, trapping around 100,000 civilians, the Palestinian emergency service said, in what the military said were operations to root out regrouping Hamas fighters.

The Israeli military said soldiers captured around 100 suspected Hamas fighters in a raid into Kamal Adwan hospital in the Jabalia camp. Hamas and medics have denied any militant presence at the hospital, Reuters reported.

The Gaza Strip's health ministry said at least 19 people were killed by Israeli airstrikes and bombardment on Monday, 13 of them in the north of the shattered coastal territory.

The Palestinian Civil Emergency Service said around 100,000 people were marooned in Jabalia, Beit Lahiya and Beit Hanoun without medical or food supplies.

The emergency service said its operations had ground to a halt because of the three-week-long Israeli assault back into the north, an area where the military said it had wiped out viable Hamas combat forces earlier in the year-long war.

As talks led by the US, Egypt and Qatar to broker a ceasefire resumed on Sunday after multiple abortive attempts, Egypt's president proposed an initial two-day truce to exchange four Israeli hostages of Hamas for some Palestinian prisoners, to be followed by talks within 10 days on a permanent ceasefire.

There was no public comment from Israel or Hamas, who have stuck to irreconcilable conditions for ending the war.

Gaza's war has kindled wider Middle East conflict, raising fears of global instability, with Israeli forces invading south Lebanon to stop Hezbollah rocketing northern Israel in support of fellow Iran-backed militant group Hamas in Gaza.

It has also triggered rare direct clashes between Middle East arch-foes Israel and Iran. At the weekend, Israeli warplanes pounded missiles sites in Iran in retaliation for an Oct. 1 Iranian missile volley at Israel.

Iran's Foreign Ministry said on Monday Tehran would "use all available tools" to respond to Israel's weekend attack.

- ISRAELI RAID INTO NORTH GAZA HOSPITAL

North Gaza's three hospitals, where officials refused orders by the Israeli army to evacuate, said they were hardly operating. At least two had been damaged by Israeli fire during the assault and run out of medical, food and fuel stocks.

At least one doctor, a nurse and two child patients had died in those hospitals due to a lack of treatment in the past week.

On Monday, the Gaza health ministry said there was only one of roughly 70 medical staff - a paediatrician - was left at Kamal Adwan Hospital after Israel "detained and expelled" the others.

The Israeli military said soldiers who raided the hospital "apprehended approximately 100 terrorists from the compound, including terrorists who attempted to escape during the evacuation of civilians. Inside the hospital, they found weapons, terror funds, and intelligence documents".

North Gaza residents said Israeli forces were besieging schools and other shelters housing displaced families, ordering them out before rounding up men and ushering women and children out of the area towards Gaza City and the south.

'NONSENSE TALK OF CEASEFIRE'

Only a few families headed to southern Gaza as the majority preferred to relocate temporarily in Gaza City, fearing they could otherwise never regain access to their homes.

Some said they had written their death notices in case they died from the constant bombardment, saying they would prefer death to displacement.

"While the world is busy with Lebanon and new nonsense talk about a few days of ceasefire (in Gaza), the Israeli occupation is wiping out north Gaza and displacing its people," a resident of Jabalia told Reuters by a chat app.

"(But) neither (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu nor Eiland will be able to take us out of northern Gaza."

Giora Eiland, a former head of Israel's National Security Council, was the lead author of a much-debated proposal dubbed "the generals' plan" that would see Israel rapidly clear northern Gaza of civilians before starving out surviving Hamas fighters by cutting off their water and food supplies.

This month's Israeli tank assault drew Palestinian accusations that the military has embraced Eiland's concept, which he envisaged as a short-term step to defeat Hamas in the north but which Palestinians fear is meant to clear the area for good to carve out a buffer zone for the military after the war.

The Israeli military has denied pursuing any such plan. It says its forces operate in keeping with international law and that it targets militants who hide among the civilian population which they use as human shields, a charge Hamas denies.

North Gaza was the first part of the enclave to be hammered by Israel's ground offensive into the territory after Hamas' cross-border attack on Oct. 7, 2023, with intensive bombing largely flattening towns like Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahiya.

Nevertheless, Hamas-led fighters continue to attack Israeli forces in hit-and-run operations with anti-tank rockets, mortar salvoes and bombs planted in buildings, streets and other areas where they anticipate Israeli forces taking up positions.

The war erupted after Hamas fighters stormed into southern Israel on Oct. 7 last year, taking more than 250 hostages, by Israeli tallies.

The death toll from Israel's retaliatory air and ground onslaught in Gaza has reached 43,020, the Gaza health ministry said in an update on Monday, with the densely populated enclave widely reduced to rubble.