Putting Kurds in Spotlight, Iran’s Leaders Try to Deflect National Protest

An image of Mahsa (Zhina) Amini, an Iranian Kurdish woman, is displayed on a pole during a protest following her death, in Los Angeles, California, US, September 22, 2022. (Reuters)
An image of Mahsa (Zhina) Amini, an Iranian Kurdish woman, is displayed on a pole during a protest following her death, in Los Angeles, California, US, September 22, 2022. (Reuters)
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Putting Kurds in Spotlight, Iran’s Leaders Try to Deflect National Protest

An image of Mahsa (Zhina) Amini, an Iranian Kurdish woman, is displayed on a pole during a protest following her death, in Los Angeles, California, US, September 22, 2022. (Reuters)
An image of Mahsa (Zhina) Amini, an Iranian Kurdish woman, is displayed on a pole during a protest following her death, in Los Angeles, California, US, September 22, 2022. (Reuters)

Facing their biggest challenge in years, Iran's religious leaders are trying to portray the angry protests over the death of Mahsa Amini as a breakaway uprising by her fellow Kurds threatening the nation's unity rather than its clerical rule.

Amini, a 22-year-old from Kurdistan province in northwest Iran, died in the custody of the country’s morality police after she was detained for violating strict codes requiring women to dress modestly in public.

Protests which started at Amini's funeral in her Kurdish hometown of Saqez spread rapidly across the country, to the capital Tehran, cities in central Iran, and the southwest and southeast where Arab and Baluch minorities are concentrated.

Across the country, including at universities and high schools, the rallying cry "Women, Life, Freedom" and the same calls for the downfall of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei were heard, yet much of the crackdown by security forces focused on the northwest where most of Iran's estimated 10 million Kurds live.

Riot police and Basij paramilitary forces have been transferred to the area from other provinces, according to witnesses, and tanks were sent to Kurdish areas where tensions have been particularly high.

Iran has also attacked Iranian Kurdish armed groups in neighboring Iraq it says are involved in the unrest. Iran's Revolutionary Guards fired missiles and drones at militant targets in northern Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdish region, where authorities said 13 people were killed.

"The Kurdish opposition groups are using Amini's case as an excuse to reach their decades-long goal of separating Kurdistan from Iran, but they will not succeed," a hardline security official said.

His comments were echoed by a former official, who told Reuters senior security officers were concerned that "the support Kurdish people are getting from across Iran will be used by Kurdish opposition groups to push for independence."

Iranian state media have called the nationwide protests a "political plot" ignited by Kurdish separatist groups, particularly the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI).

‘Separatist threat’

"Since the very start of the uprising the regime has tried to portray it as a Kurdish ethnic issue rather than a national one, invoking a separatist threat emerging from the Kurdish region," said Ali Fathollah-Nejad, a political scientist at the American University of Beirut.

Those efforts by authorities had been undermined, Fathollah-Nejad said, by significant solidarity between Iran's different ethnic groups during the nationwide protests.

Still, looking across their border to Iraq, and further west to Syria, Iranian authorities can point to Kurdish ambitions for self-rule taking root when central government was challenged.

Syrian Kurdish forces exploited the tumult of the 2011 uprising against President Bashar al-Assad, allying with the United States against ISIS and carving out a swathe of northeast Syria under their control.

In Türkiye, where around a fifth of the 85 million-strong population is Kurdish, Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) fighters have fought an armed insurgency against the state since 1984 in which tens of thousands of people have died.

In Iraq and Syria, Kurds have demonstrated in solidarity with the protesters in Iran. In Türkiye, a deputy leader of the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party told Reuters the party "salutes the women in Iran" calling for their rights.

"As in Türkiye, Iraq and Syria, in Iran it is the Kurds who seek democracy, the Kurds who seek freedom," said Tuncer Bakirhan, a former mayor who was removed from his post and jailed over alleged militant ties.

Iran's constitution grants equal rights to all ethnic minorities and says minority languages may be used in the media and schools. But rights groups and activists say Kurds face discrimination along with other religious and ethnic minorities under the country's Shiite clerical establishment.

Amnesty International has reported that "scores if not hundreds" of political prisoners affiliated to the Kurdish group KDPI and other proscribed political parties are in jail after being convicted in unfair trials.

"The regime has never recognized the rights of its Kurdish population," said Hiwa Molania, a Kurdish Iranian journalist based in Türkiye. Despite those restrictions at home, and the examples of Kurdish autonomy in Iraq and Syria, many Iranian Kurds insist they are not seeking secession.

"Iranian Kurds want their constitutional rights to be respected," said Kaveh Ghoreishi, an Iranian Kurd journalist and researcher. "People in the Kurdistan province... want a regime change and not independence."

Ali Vaez, senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, said accusations of Kurdish separatist ambitions aim to create a "rally around the flag effect" that encourages Iranians to support the leadership rather than the protesters.

However, the real danger was not any breakaway ambitions of Iran's minorities, but their treatment by Iran's leadership.

"The system’s disregard for the legitimate grievances of ethnic and sectarian minorities ... have rendered the country increasingly vulnerable to the civil strife that has pulled countries in the region like Syria and Yemen into a deadly downward spiral," Vaez said.



How France’s Macron Went from a Successful Political Newcomer to a Weakened Leader

French President Emmanuel Macron leaves the voting booth before voting in the early French parliamentary election, in Le Touquet-Paris-Plage, northern France, Sunday, June 30, 2024. (AP)
French President Emmanuel Macron leaves the voting booth before voting in the early French parliamentary election, in Le Touquet-Paris-Plage, northern France, Sunday, June 30, 2024. (AP)
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How France’s Macron Went from a Successful Political Newcomer to a Weakened Leader

French President Emmanuel Macron leaves the voting booth before voting in the early French parliamentary election, in Le Touquet-Paris-Plage, northern France, Sunday, June 30, 2024. (AP)
French President Emmanuel Macron leaves the voting booth before voting in the early French parliamentary election, in Le Touquet-Paris-Plage, northern France, Sunday, June 30, 2024. (AP)

French President Emmanuel Macron’s expected political failure in decisive parliamentary elections Sunday could paralyze the country, weaken him abroad and overshadow his legacy, just as France prepares to step into the global spotlight as host of the Paris Olympics.

France’s youngest-ever president is known on the international stage for his tireless diplomatic efforts and pro-European initiatives. Now, many wonder how he will manage to keep the reins of the country with likely no majority in parliament and a confrontational government. Constitutionally barred from running for a third consecutive term in 2027, Macron, 46, is facing a struggle not to become a lame duck.

Whatever the outcome of Sunday’s runoff, it’s not expected to be good news for Macron. French media have recently described an "end of reign" atmosphere at the Elysee presidential palace. Polls suggest Macron's centrist alliance is headed for defeat in Sunday’s runoff, after coming in third in the first round.

"It looks as if on the first ballot, the French wanted to punish their president," Paris-based political analyst Dominique Moïsi told the Associated Press.

Governing with a rival party will likely weaken Macron. If the far-right National Rally and its allies win a majority in parliament, it would place the centrist president in the awkward situation of having to work with an anti-immigration, nationalist prime minister. Otherwise, Macron may have to seek a way to form a functioning government, possibly by offering a deal to his left-wing rivals. In any case, he would no longer be able to implement his own plans, which have been based on pro-business policies meant to boost France’s economy.

"We are in the unknown. The unknown unknown," Moïsi said. "Because coalition governments are not a French tradition."

Abroad, Macron used to appear as a key world player known for his non-stop diplomatic activism. He has been deeply involved in Western steps taken to support Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in February 2022. In the Middle East, France has been pushing for diplomatic efforts with its Arab partners. Earlier this year, Macron also outlined his vision for the European Union, urging the bloc of 27 nations to build its own robust defense and undertake major trade and economic reforms in order to compete with China and the US.

The French Constitution gives the president some powers over foreign policy, European affairs and defense. But the division of power with a prime minister from a rival party remains unclear, and without the backing of a government, Macron’s role may end up being limited.

His pro-business policies lowered unemployment but were still controversial. The job of president is Macron’s first elected office. In his 30s, Macron quit his job as a banker at Rothschild to become Socialist President Francois Hollande’s economic adviser, working for two years by Hollande’s side at the presidential palace. Then, as economy minister in Hollande’s government from 2014 to 2016, he promoted a package of measures, notably allowing more stores to open on Sundays and evenings and opening up regulated sectors of the economy.

First elected president in 2017 after leaving the Socialists, Macron was then a successful 39-year-old political newbie. He sought to make the labor market more flexible and passed new rules to make it more difficult for the unemployed to claim benefits. His government also cut taxes for businesses to boost hiring.

The yellow vest anti-government protests soon erupted against perceived social injustice, leading to Macron being dubbed the "president of the rich." He is still perceived by many as arrogant and out of touch with ordinary people. Opponents on the left accused him of destroying workers’ protections. Macron argued that unemployment has fallen from over 10% to 7.5% now and France has been ranked the most attractive European country for foreign investment in recent years.

Macron was reelected in 2022, defeating for the second consecutive time his far-right rival Marine Le Pen in the runoff of the presidential election. But he lost his parliamentary majority, even though his centrist alliance took the largest share of seats in the National Assembly. He then struggled to pass an unpopular plan to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64, prompting months of mass protests that damaged his leadership. Last year, riots swept hundreds of cities, towns and villages after the fatal police shooting of a teenager.

Politically, the centrist leader launched his own party on a promise to do better than the mainstream right and left. But that, also, now appears as bound to fail. His call for snap elections actually pushed forward two major forces: the far-right National Rally and a broad leftist coalition including the Socialists, the greens and hard-left France Unbowed.

Macron's own camp questioned the president's political skills after he announced the surprise decision to dissolve the National Assembly last month. Bruno Le Maire, his finance minister for seven years, told France Inter radio that "this decision has created — in our country, in the French people, everywhere — concern, incomprehension, sometimes anger." Macron’s former prime minister, Edouard Philippe, accused him of having "killed" his centrist majority.

Macron's fate may become a topic for discussion next week at a NATO summit in Washington that will be the occasion for world leaders to meet with the new UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

"The paradox of the present situation is that as a result of the last two elections in Great Britain and in France, there will be more Great Britain and less France at the NATO summit," Moïsi said. "The strongest personality will be the new prime minister of Great Britain. And the weak personality will be the president of France."