Egypt Demands Intl Support, Ethiopia Insists on African Solution to GERD Dispute

Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry during the fifth Cairo Water Week (Egyptian government)
Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry during the fifth Cairo Water Week (Egyptian government)
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Egypt Demands Intl Support, Ethiopia Insists on African Solution to GERD Dispute

Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry during the fifth Cairo Water Week (Egyptian government)
Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry during the fifth Cairo Water Week (Egyptian government)

The difference in views between Ethiopia and Egypt on how to break the deadlock in talks on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has once again emerged.

While Addis Ababa wants the African Union’s “unproductive” sponsorship of the negotiations, Egypt demands the support of the international community to resolve the matter in a way that achieves all parties’ interests.

The massive $4.2 billion dam, set to be the largest hydro-electric scheme in Africa, has been at the center of a regional dispute ever since Ethiopia broke ground on the project in 2011.

Cairo has reiterated its demand that Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan reach a legally-binding agreement to fill and operate the dam.

As part of its efforts to mobilize international support for its “existential” issue, Egypt organized the fifth Cairo Water Week during the period between Oct 16 and 19.

Representatives of 70 countries, including 16 ministerial delegations, 54 official delegations, and 66 international organizations are taking part in the event, with a total of more than a thousand participants.

The conference focuses on water crises across the world and ways to address them.

According to Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the country’s water resources are no longer able to meet the population’s needs.

He explained in his opening speech on Sunday that his country is facing three intertwined challenges, namely water, food security, and climate change.

“Egypt is one the world’s most arid countries and relies almost exclusively on the Nile River for its renewable water resources, about 80% of which are used by the agriculture sector,” Sisi stated, noting that the sector represents the source of livelihood for more than 60 million people (half of Egypt’s population).

Sisi stated that although Cairo has adopted a policy to rationalize water consumption by reusing irrigation water, making the overall efficiency rate in Egypt one of the highest in Africa, yet it is still unable to meet its people’s needs.

He pointed out that the impact of climate change exacerbates water scarcity on the country’s agricultural lands, which are affected by the adverse consequences of climate change within its borders and throughout the Nile Basin countries, as Egypt is a downstream country.

“Given all this, it was necessary for Egypt to adopt a comprehensive approach to successfully address water and food security challenges that are associated with climate change, considering it a matter of national security.”

At the regional level, Sisi affirmed that Cairo has always been a pioneer in advancing the rules and principles of international law regarding shared watercourses, primarily cooperation and consultation to avoid causing harm.

He said it comes in line with the management of transboundary water resources, adding that these are the absolute rules and principles to ensure the equitable and shared utilization of these resources.

“Egypt’s entrenched vision is to work together with a focus on establishing and sharing prosperity, instead of competition and rivalry, which lead to sharing impoverishment and instability.”

Realizing the gravity of the issue and given its existential importance to Cairo, Sisi renewed his country’s commitment to exerting utmost efforts to settle the dam dispute in a manner that achieves the interests of all parties.

He further called on the international community to exert maximum and concerted efforts to achieve this just goal.

The last round of talks between the three countries in Kinshasa ended in early April 2021 with no progress made, prompting Cairo to protest to the UN Security Council and demand international partners to pressure Addis Ababa to agree to sign an agreement that guarantees the rights of the downstream countries.

Addis Ababa deems GERD essential for the electrification and development of Africa's second most populous country.

But Cairo and Khartoum fear it could threaten their access to vital Nile waters and have demanded a written agreement between the three countries on the dam's filling and operation.

Head of Sudan’s Transitional Sovereign Council Abdel Fattah al-Burhan held talks on Saturday with Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

Burhan announced at the end of the talks that reaching an agreement with Ethiopia on GERD is “possible.”

Ahmed, for his part, stressed that the GERD project will yield great benefits to Sudan and underlined his country's commitment to addressing the issue within the African framework



UK to Unveil ‘Comprehensive’ Response to Israeli West Bank Settlement Plans in Coming Weeks

The new Israeli settlement “Dotan Valley”, as seen from Arraba whilst Israeli bulldozers uproots olive trees from Palestinian farms in Araba village near the west bank city of Jenin, 01 September 2026. (EPA)
The new Israeli settlement “Dotan Valley”, as seen from Arraba whilst Israeli bulldozers uproots olive trees from Palestinian farms in Araba village near the west bank city of Jenin, 01 September 2026. (EPA)
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UK to Unveil ‘Comprehensive’ Response to Israeli West Bank Settlement Plans in Coming Weeks

The new Israeli settlement “Dotan Valley”, as seen from Arraba whilst Israeli bulldozers uproots olive trees from Palestinian farms in Araba village near the west bank city of Jenin, 01 September 2026. (EPA)
The new Israeli settlement “Dotan Valley”, as seen from Arraba whilst Israeli bulldozers uproots olive trees from Palestinian farms in Araba village near the west bank city of Jenin, 01 September 2026. (EPA)

Britain will set out a "comprehensive" package of measures on Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank in the coming weeks, Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband said on ‌Tuesday.

Miliband told ‌lawmakers that Israel's ‌E1 ⁠settlement project would cut ⁠across land which the Palestinians seek for a state and "risks making a Palestinian state unviable".

"This government will not acquiesce ⁠in the destruction of the ‌two-state ‌solution," he said. "We will act ‌and I will set out ‌a comprehensive set of measures in the coming weeks."

Britain and other European nations ‌have criticized Israel's plans, while Prime Minister Andy ⁠Burnham ⁠said before taking office that he was "looking at measures to ban trade in goods with illegal settlements".

The Times reported on Monday that US President Donald Trump's administration is "closely" tracking any plans to introduce a trade ban.


More Than 10 EU Countries Eager to Contribute to Lebanon Mission, EU Foreign Policy Chief Says

(COMBO) This combination of handout satellite images taken by Planet Labs PBC shows views of the village of Yaroun in southern Lebanon close to the border with Israel on (top L to R followed by bottom L to R) October 5, 2024; January 10, 2025; January 30, 2025; and on May 2, 2026.  (Photo by 2026 Planet Labs PBC / AFP)
(COMBO) This combination of handout satellite images taken by Planet Labs PBC shows views of the village of Yaroun in southern Lebanon close to the border with Israel on (top L to R followed by bottom L to R) October 5, 2024; January 10, 2025; January 30, 2025; and on May 2, 2026. (Photo by 2026 Planet Labs PBC / AFP)
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More Than 10 EU Countries Eager to Contribute to Lebanon Mission, EU Foreign Policy Chief Says

(COMBO) This combination of handout satellite images taken by Planet Labs PBC shows views of the village of Yaroun in southern Lebanon close to the border with Israel on (top L to R followed by bottom L to R) October 5, 2024; January 10, 2025; January 30, 2025; and on May 2, 2026.  (Photo by 2026 Planet Labs PBC / AFP)
(COMBO) This combination of handout satellite images taken by Planet Labs PBC shows views of the village of Yaroun in southern Lebanon close to the border with Israel on (top L to R followed by bottom L to R) October 5, 2024; January 10, 2025; January 30, 2025; and on May 2, 2026. (Photo by 2026 Planet Labs PBC / AFP)

More than 10 European Union member states are willing to contribute resources and people to a new military and civilian mission to advise and train Lebanese forces, the EU's foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Tuesday, Reuters reported.

The mission intend to strengthen Lebanon's Internal Security Forces to help free up the Lebanese army to focus on disarming the armed group Hezbollah.

Discussion over the possible EU mission comes as the mandate of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon is set to expire at the end of 2026.


Lebanese Presidents and Hezbollah: From Containment to Confrontation

FILED - 16 February 2026, Lebanon, Beirut: FILE PHOTO - Lebanese President Joseph Aoun speaks during a press conference. Photo: Markus Lenhardt/dpa
FILED - 16 February 2026, Lebanon, Beirut: FILE PHOTO - Lebanese President Joseph Aoun speaks during a press conference. Photo: Markus Lenhardt/dpa
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Lebanese Presidents and Hezbollah: From Containment to Confrontation

FILED - 16 February 2026, Lebanon, Beirut: FILE PHOTO - Lebanese President Joseph Aoun speaks during a press conference. Photo: Markus Lenhardt/dpa
FILED - 16 February 2026, Lebanon, Beirut: FILE PHOTO - Lebanese President Joseph Aoun speaks during a press conference. Photo: Markus Lenhardt/dpa

Over more than three decades, the approaches taken by Lebanon’s presidents toward Hezbollah and its weapons have shifted in response to changes in the domestic balance of power and regional and international circumstances. The decision to exempt Hezbollah’s weapons from disarmament on the grounds that they constituted “resistance” against the Israeli occupation in southern Lebanon was the first clear breach of the Taif Agreement, which called for the dissolution and disarmament of all militias that had fought during the civil war.

The presidency of the late Lebanese President Elias Hrawi was not in a position to treat Hezbollah on an equal footing with the militias that were dissolved and disarmed. Syrian tutelage, which controlled Lebanon’s political decision-making in coordination with the Iranian regime, had instructed that Hezbollah be elevated from a “militia” to a “resistance” force. This arrangement remained in place until Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon on May 25, 2000. Lebanon then entered a new phase in which Hezbollah remained a political and military actor whose capabilities surpassed those of the state institutions.

From “Militia” to “Resistance”

When Army Commander Emile Lahoud was elected president in October 1998 with the endorsement of the Syrian regime, Hezbollah’s influence within the state grew stronger, particularly after the Israeli withdrawal. The formula of “army, people and resistance” was subsequently entrenched in the ministerial statements of successive governments, particularly after Israel’s war on Lebanon in July 2006.

The same approach continued through most of Michel Suleiman’s presidency, as he dealt with Hezbollah as a resistance force despite major domestic and external changes, most notably the withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon on April 25, 2005, under American pressure, and the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri.

In his assessment of this trajectory, former MP Fares Saeed, head of the Saydet al-Jabal Gathering, argues that “the Israeli occupation of part of southern Lebanon and Syria’s control over the internal political game imposed a distinction between Hezbollah and the other Lebanese militias that existed during the civil war.” He says these circumstances “led to Hezbollah being elevated from the status of a militia to that of a resistance force, while the other militias were dissolved and disarmed.”

The Shift Following the Historic Bishops’ Call

Fares Saeed recalls the events of 2000, when Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon, coinciding with the death of Syrian President Hafez al-Assad in June of that year. He says these developments encouraged the Maronite Council of Bishops, headed by the late Maronite Patriarch Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir, to take a stronger position and call for the withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon.

“This historic and courageous position was based on a clear logic,” Saeed says. “Since Israel had withdrawn from southern Lebanon, why should Syria not withdraw as well? There was no longer any reason for it to remain in Lebanon.”

The historic call marked a key moment in reopening the debate over the Syrian presence and the future of Lebanese political life. Along with other factors, it paved the way for the formation of the Qornet Shehwan Gathering, which played a prominent role in the political opposition to the Syrian presence.

Saeed says the Qornet Shehwan Gathering began at that stage by advising Hezbollah to join the call for the Syrian regime to withdraw from Lebanon. This came during Emile Lahoud’s presidency, when Lebanon was closely aligned with Syria and the Iranian axis. He considers that the political and security circumstances at the time did not allow the existing equation to be changed, and therefore Hezbollah’s weapons remained outside the substantive debate over the state’s exclusive control of arms.

The “Wooden Equation”

The presidential terms that followed the Taif Agreement, up until Lebanon was drawn into the war in support of Gaza, were not able to move beyond Hezbollah, even on the most sensitive domestic issues. Michel Suleiman himself was elected president as an initial outcome of the Doha Agreement, which followed Hezbollah’s takeover of Beirut on May 7, 2008.

Former MP Fares Saeed stresses that Suleiman’s arrival at Baabda Palace “did not lead to any fundamental change in the approach to Hezbollah’s weapons, as they continued to be treated as resistance.” He notes that Suleiman “did not engage in a direct confrontation with Hezbollah during most of his presidency, except in its final phase, when he described the ‘army, people and resistance’ formula as a ‘wooden equation.’” This, he says, represented a significant shift in the Lebanese debate over the legitimacy of Hezbollah’s weapons.

The Failed Bet on President Michel Aoun

When President Suleiman’s term ended on May 25, 2014, Lebanon entered a presidential vacuum after the Lebanese Parliament was effectively prevented from electing a successor under pressure from Hezbollah, which imposed the equation: “Either Michel Aoun is president, or there will be no president.”

Aoun was eventually elected on October 31, 2016, prompting Hezbollah to declare victory in the battle, viewing it as “the culmination of the victory of the Iranian axis in Syria and Iraq and the Houthi coup against the legitimate government in Yemen.”

Fares Saeed does not hide his view that “the bet by some on Michel Aoun’s ability to Lebanese Hezbollah failed miserably.” After his election, he says, Aoun secured gains in power, appointments, and deals with Hezbollah’s assistance, and “handed the country over to Hezbollah and Iran.”

President Joseph Aoun’s Positions: A Break With Previous Presidencies

The rhetoric of current President Joseph Aoun represents a break with all previous presidencies that had yielded to the will of Hezbollah and Iran. His speech two days ago marking the 81st anniversary of General Security was perhaps the strongest attack yet on Hezbollah.

“In addition to the conflict with Israel, we are living through an internal war with a faction that stands in opposition to the state and its institutions,” he said. “We tell them: whatever you do, we will continue for the sake of the nation.”

Assessing the speech, Fares Saeed, head of the Saydet al-Jabal Gathering, says the fundamental difference today “lies in the circumstances surrounding Joseph Aoun’s presidency.”

He stresses that “the boldness President Joseph Aoun is showing in addressing Hezbollah’s weapons stems, in part, from his knowledge of the nature of Hezbollah and its intentions toward the Lebanese state, as well as his awareness of its previous attempts to dominate the state’s decision-making.”

He also emphasizes “the importance of the major changes that have taken place, beginning with Hezbollah’s military defeat in its confrontation with Israel, followed by the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the collapse of a key part of the Iranian axis in the region.”