At War for Decades, Lebanon and Israel Agree a Rare Compromise

A UN peacekeeper (UNIFIL) vehicle drives near signs bearing names of cities, in Naqoura, near the Lebanese-Israeli border, southern Lebanon, October 11, 2022. (Reuters)
A UN peacekeeper (UNIFIL) vehicle drives near signs bearing names of cities, in Naqoura, near the Lebanese-Israeli border, southern Lebanon, October 11, 2022. (Reuters)
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At War for Decades, Lebanon and Israel Agree a Rare Compromise

A UN peacekeeper (UNIFIL) vehicle drives near signs bearing names of cities, in Naqoura, near the Lebanese-Israeli border, southern Lebanon, October 11, 2022. (Reuters)
A UN peacekeeper (UNIFIL) vehicle drives near signs bearing names of cities, in Naqoura, near the Lebanese-Israeli border, southern Lebanon, October 11, 2022. (Reuters)

Oct. 18 - Lebanon and Israel have agreed to a US-mediated agreement ending a decades-old dispute over their maritime boundary on Tuesday, a landmark compromise between countries with a history of war.

Here is a timeline of conflict between the states:

1948

Lebanon fights alongside other Arab states against the nascent state of Israel. Some 100,000 Palestinians who fled or were expelled from their homes in Palestine during the war arrive in Lebanon as refugees.

1949

Lebanon and Israel conclude an armistice agreement under UN auspices.

1968

Israeli commandos destroyed a dozen passenger planes at Beirut airport, a response to an attack on an Israeli airliner by a Lebanon-based Palestinian group.

1978

Israel invades south Lebanon and sets up an occupation zone in an operation against Palestinian guerrillas.

1982

Israel invades all the way to Beirut. The Syrian army is ousted from Beirut and thousands of Palestinian fighters under Yasser Arafat are evacuated by sea after a bloody 10-week siege.

Head of Christian militia Lebanese Forces, Bashir al-Gemayel, is elected president but killed before taking office.

Bashir's brother, Amin al-Gemayel, becomes president.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards establish Hezbollah in Lebanon.

1985

Israel establishes an occupation zone in southern Lebanon, about 15 km (nine miles) deep, after it pulled back from a line further north, controlling the area with a proxy force, the South Lebanon Army.

1996

With Hezbollah regularly attacking Israeli forces in the south and firing rockets into northern Israel, Israel mounts the 17-day "Operation Grapes of Wrath" offensive that kills more than 200 people in Lebanon, including 102 who die when Israel shells a UN base near the south Lebanon village of Qana.

2000

Israel withdraws from southern Lebanon, ending 22 years of occupation.

2006

In July, Hezbollah crosses the border into Israel, kidnaps two Israeli soldiers and kills others, sparking a five-week war. While most of the conflict is fought on land, an Israeli navy vessel is damaged in a Hezbollah missile attack. At least 1,200 people in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and 158 Israelis, mostly soldiers, are killed.

2020

The United States revives indirect negotiations between Lebanon and Israel aimed at reaching an agreement on their disputed maritime boundary, with the aim of facilitating oil and gas exploration. Indirect US-mediated talks first began years earlier but never reached a conclusion.

2022

The Lebanese and Israeli governments agree to a US-brokered deal demarcating the maritime boundary, calling it historic. The deal opens the way to offshore oil and gas exploration, and defuses a potential source of conflict.



What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
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What Happens When Russian Gas to Europe Via Ukraine Stops?

A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo
A view shows a board with the logo of Russian gas producer Gazprom at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 5, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/File Photo

Austria's energy company OMV was informed by Gazprom that the Russian gas producer would halt deliveries of natural gas via Ukraine to OMV from 0500 GMT on Nov. 16 following OMV winning an arbitration case. Supplies of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine may completely stop from Jan. 1 2025 after the current five-year deal expires as Kyiv has refused to negotiate the new terms of the transit with Moscow during the war.
Here is what happens if Russian gas transit via Ukraine is completely turned off and who will be affected most, according to Reuters.
HOW BIG ARE THE VOLUMES?
Russian gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine are relatively small. Russia shipped about 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018-2019.
Russia spent half a century building its European gas market share, which at its peak stood at 35%.
Moscow lost its share to rivals such as Norway, the United States and Qatar since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting the EU to cut its dependence on Russian gas.
EU gas prices rallied in 2022 to record highs after the loss of Russian supplies. The rally won't be repeated given modest volumes and a small number of customers for the remaining volumes, according to EU officials and traders.
UKRAINIAN ROUTE
The Soviet-era Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline brings gas from Siberia via the town of Sudzha - now under control of Ukrainian military forces - in Russia's Kursk region. It then flows through Ukraine to Slovakia.
In Slovakia, the gas pipeline splits into branches going to the Czech Republic and Austria.
Austria still receives most of its gas via Ukraine, while Russia accounts for around two-thirds of Hungary's gas imports.
Slovakia takes around 3 bcm from energy giant Gazprom per year, also about two-thirds of its needs.
Czech Republic almost completely cut gas imports from the east last year, but has started taking gas from Russia in 2024.
Most other Russian gas routes to Europe are shut including Yamal-Europe via Belarus and Nord Stream under the Baltic.
The only other operational Russian gas pipeline route to Europe is the Blue Stream and TurkStream to Türkiye under the Black Sea. Türkiye sends some Russian gas volumes onward to Europe including to Hungary.
WHY DOES THE UKRAINIAN ROUTE STILL WORK?
While remaining Russian gas transit volumes are small, the issue remains a dilemma for the EU. Many EU members such as France and Germany have said they would not buy Russian gas anymore but the stance of Slovakia, Hungary and Austria, which have closer ties to Moscow, challenges the EU common approach.
The countries, who still receive Russian gas, argue it is the most economic fuel and also blame neighboring EU countries for imposing high transit fees for alternative supplies.
Ukraine still earns $0.8-$1 billion in transit fees from Russian gas transit. Russia earns over $3 billion on sales via Ukraine based on an average gas price of $200 per 1,000 cubic meters, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia's gas pipeline export monopoly Gazprom plunged to a net loss of $7 billion in 2023, its first annual loss since 1999, because of the loss EU's gas markets.
Russia has said it would be ready to extend the transit deal but Kyiv has repeatedly said it won't do it.
Another option is for Gazprom to supply some of the gas via another route, for example via TurkStream, Bulgaria, Serbia or Hungary. However, capacity via these routes is limited.
The EU and Ukraine have also asked Azerbaijan to facilitate discussions with Russia regarding the gas transit deal, an Azeri presidential advisor told Reuters, who declined to give further details.