OPEC Stresses the Importance of Increasing Oil Investments

OPEC Secretary-General Haitham al-Ghais (Asharq Al-Awsat)
OPEC Secretary-General Haitham al-Ghais (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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OPEC Stresses the Importance of Increasing Oil Investments

OPEC Secretary-General Haitham al-Ghais (Asharq Al-Awsat)
OPEC Secretary-General Haitham al-Ghais (Asharq Al-Awsat)

OPEC Secretary-General Haitham al-Ghais stressed the importance of increasing investments in the oil sector to avoid any future volatility in the oil markets.

Ghais said that among the main challenges are the energy transition and the future of energy in general, adding that OPEC has adopted a policy that aims at embracing all forms of energy.

He added that OPEC's research studies have shown that oil will account for 29 percent of the global energy mix in 2045, highlighting another challenge related to investing in the oil sector, as the world requires nearly $12 trillion in investments in this sector alone.

The official explained that last year's challenges included the oil market's volatility and demand-supply unbalance, which led to a significant decline in investments.

Oil investments totaled some $500 million per year but decreased with the drop in prices in 2016, leading to a decrease in production capacity and investments after the COVID-19 pandemic, WAM quoted Ghais.

On OPEC's long-term demand-supply predictions, Ghais said that the organization has issued its 16th annual report during the Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference (ADIPEC) 2022 in the UAE and noted that the organization believes that dependence on oil will continue even though previous predictions claim otherwise.

He highlighted the fact that oil demand in 2045 will reach 110 million barrels per day, compared to 99 million barrels at present, adding that OPEC's expectations also indicate that with population growth increasing by one billion and 900 million people, the demand for oil and energy will increase to fuel global economic growth.

It could witness a growth in its annual gross product of between 2.5 percent and 3 percent, reflecting demand levels.

He pointed out that OPEC's expectations also indicate an increase in energy demand by about 23 percent, from 300 million barrels equivalent to 350 million barrels in 2045. Meanwhile, oil demand levels will remain stable, and natural gas and renewable energy are expected to rise within the overall energy mix in the future while the share of coal will decrease.

On boosting investments in the oil sector, Ghais highlighted that investment delays are attributed to the sharp volatility in oil prices, adding that the role of OPEC and OPEC Plus consists of maintaining market stability.

The Sec-Gen stressed the importance of increasing investments in the oil sector to avoid any future volatility in the oil markets, and to promote investment in fossil energy.

UAE's policies aimed at ensuring global energy stability underscore its clear vision and critical role in being a safe international source of energy and oil supplies, in line with the main objectives of OPEC, said Ghais.

Since joining the organization, the role of the UAE has remained clear: to increase production, maintain economic growth, achieve diversification through other sources, and reduce costs.



Oil Wavers as Trump's Colombia Sanctions Threat Rattles Markets

Pump Jacks are seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California October 14, 2014. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson
Pump Jacks are seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California October 14, 2014. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson
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Oil Wavers as Trump's Colombia Sanctions Threat Rattles Markets

Pump Jacks are seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California October 14, 2014. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson
Pump Jacks are seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California October 14, 2014. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson

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Oil market momentum was kept in check on Monday as prices fluctuated in and out of negative territory, with traders on edge despite the US pulling back from initial sanctions threats against Colombia, reducing immediate concern over oil supply disruptions.

Brent crude futures fell 36 cents, or 0.5%, to $78.14 a barrel by 1200 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $74.27, down 39 cents, or 0.5%.

Both benchmarks oscillated between moderate gains and losses in early trading.

The US swiftly reversed plans to impose sanctions and tariffs on Colombia after the South American nation agreed to accept deported migrants from the United States, the White House said late on Sunday, Reuters reported.

Colombia last year sent about 41% of its seaborne crude exports to the US, data from analytics firm Kpler shows.

"Even if the sanctions didn't take place, this still creates nervousness that Trump will bully whoever needs to be bullied to get his way," said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB.

"Fundamentally, the market is surprisingly tight," said Schieldrop, referring to time spreads showing that the price of crude oil for quicker delivery is rising.

Gains were limited by Trump's repeated call on Friday for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to cut oil prices to hurt oil-rich Russia's finances and help to end to the war in Ukraine.

"One way to stop it quickly is for OPEC to stop making so much money and drop the price of oil ... That war will stop right away," Trump said.

Trump has also threatened to hit Russia "and other participating countries" with taxes, tariffs and sanctions if a deal to end the war in Ukraine is not struck soon.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that he and Trump should meet to talk about the Ukraine war and energy prices.

"They are positioning for negotiations," said John Driscoll at Singapore-based consultancy JTD Energy, adding that this creates volatility in oil markets.

He added that oil markets are probably skewed a little bit to the downside, with Trump looking to boost US output and try to secure overseas markets for US crude.

"He's going to want to muscle into some of the OPEC market share; so in that sense he's kind of a competitor," Driscoll said.

However, OPEC and its allies including Russia have yet to react to Trump's call, with OPEC+ delegates pointing to a plan already in place to start raising oil output from April.

Both oil benchmarks registered their first weekly decline in five weeks on easing concern last week over potential supply disruptions resulting from the latest sanctions on Russia.

Goldman Sachs analysts said they do not expect a big hit to Russian production because higher freight rates have encouraged non-sanctioned ships to move Russian oil while the deepening discount on the affected Russian ESPO grade attracts price-sensitive buyers.

Still, JP Morgan analysts said some risk premium is justified given that nearly 20% of the global Aframax fleet currently faces sanctions.

"The application of sanctions on the Russian energy sector as leverage in future negotiations could go either way, indicating that a zero risk premium is not appropriate," they added in a note.

Elsewhere, Chinese manufacturing data on Monday was weaker than expected, adding fresh concerns over energy demand.