Algeria Expects Oil Prices to Stabilize at $100 by Year's End

A general view of Sonatrach's Hassi R'mel gas field, Algeria (Reuters)
A general view of Sonatrach's Hassi R'mel gas field, Algeria (Reuters)
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Algeria Expects Oil Prices to Stabilize at $100 by Year's End

A general view of Sonatrach's Hassi R'mel gas field, Algeria (Reuters)
A general view of Sonatrach's Hassi R'mel gas field, Algeria (Reuters)

Oil prices are predicted to stabilize at $100 a barrel by the year-end, Algeria's Minister of Energy and Mines Mohamed Arkab said.

The Minister explained that despite the decline in oil prices and global recession concerns, the latest decision of OPEC+ countries to reduce production by two million barrels per day (bpd) should keep the market balance and the stability of oil prices at the level of $100 per barrel until the year-end.

"Oil prices recovered after the unprecedented markets collapse in early 2020 due to the appearance and spread of the coronavirus," Arkab noted.

The Minister said that crude oil prices, on average, exceeded the threshold of $109 per barrel by the end of September of this year, which contributed to the improvement of the overall indicators of the national economy.

He expected that his country's hydrocarbon revenues would exceed $50 billion by the end of the current year, adding that given the achievements recorded until September 2022, Algeria expects a two percent increase in primary hydrocarbon production by the end of the current year.

"Exports outside hydrocarbons will record an estimated increase of more than 40 percent compared to the achievements of 2021, driven mainly by the increase in exports of mining materials and petrochemical products," he added in statements carried by the official Algerian Press Agency (APZ).

Algeria's hydrocarbon exports rose 77 percent annually to $42.6 billion between January and September.

"Exports for the same period last year amounted to $24.1 billion," Arkab said.

Concerning investment in the energy and mining sector, the Minister indicated that a total of $6.3 billion was allocated during the first quarter of 2022, an eight percent increase compared to the same period in 2021.

Oil prices settled by more than five percent on Friday amid uncertainty around future interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, while a looming EU ban on Russian oil and the possibility of China easing some COVID restrictions supported markets.

Though fears of global recession capped gains, Brent crude futures settled up $3.99 to $98.57 per barrel, a weekly gain of 2.9 percent.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up $2.96, or five percent, at $92.61, a 4.7 percent weekly gain.

While demand concerns affect the market, supplies are also expected to decline with the start of the expected European embargo on Russian oil and the decline in US crude stocks.

The European Union ban on imports of Russian crude will take effect on Dec. 05.

China is sticking to its strict COVID-19 curbs after cases rose on Thursday to their highest since August, but a former Chinese disease control official said substantial changes to the country's COVID-19 policy are to take place soon.

Highlighting demand concerns, Saudi Arabia lowered the December official selling prices (OSPs) for the flagship Arab light crude it sells to Asia to plus $5.45 a barrel versus the Oman/Dubai average.

Meanwhile, Russia, which met India's minimal oil requirements till March this year, emerged as the country's biggest oil supplier in October, surpassing traditional sellers Saudi Arabia and Iraq, data from energy shipping tracking company Vortexa showed.

On Sunday, Russia supplied 935,556 bpd of crude oil to India last October, the highest rate ever.

The report said Russia in October accounted for 22 percent of India's total crude imports, compared to Iraq's 20.5 percent and Saudi Arabia's 16 percent.

Russian oil constituted no more than 0.2 percent of the total crude imported by India in the year until Mar. 31, 2022.

India has imported more Russian oil after the conflict in Ukraine broke out in late February.



US Job Growth Surges in September, Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.1%

A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
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US Job Growth Surges in September, Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.1%

A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo
A woman enters a store next to a sign advertising job openings at Times Square in New York City, New York, US, August 6, 2021. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo

US job growth accelerated in September and the unemployment slipped to 4.1%, further reducing the need for the Federal Reserve to maintain large interest rate cuts at its remaining two meetings this year.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 254,000 jobs last month after rising by an upwardly revised 159,000 in August, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its closely watched employment report on Friday.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls rising by 140,000 positions after advancing by a previously reported 142,000 in August.
The initial payrolls count for August has typically been revised higher over the past decade. Estimates for September's job gains ranged from 70,000 to 220,000.
The US labor market slowdown is being driven by tepid hiring against the backdrop of increased labor supply stemming mostly from a rise in immigration. Layoffs have remained low, which is underpinning the economy through solid consumer spending.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% after gaining 0.5% in August. Wages increased 4% year-on-year after climbing 3.9% in August.
The US unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% in August. It has jumped from 3.4% in April 2023, in part boosted by the 16-24 age cohort and rise in temporary layoffs during the annual automobile plant shutdowns in July.
The US Federal Reserve's policy setting committee kicked off its policy easing cycle with an unusually large half-percentage-point rate cut last month and Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized growing concerns over the health of the labor market.
While the labor market has taken a step back, annual benchmark revisions to national accounts data last week showed the economy in a much better shape than previously estimated, with upgrades to growth, income, savings and corporate profits.
This improved economic backdrop was acknowledged by Powell this week when he pushed back against investors' expectations for another half-percentage-point rate cut in November, saying “this is not a committee that feels like it is in a hurry to cut rates quickly.”
The Fed hiked rates by 525 basis points in 2022 and 2023, and delivered its first rate cut since 2020 last month. Its policy rate is currently set in the 4.75%-5.00% band.
Early on Friday, financial markets saw a roughly 71.5% chance of a quarter-point rate reduction in November, CME's FedWatch tool showed. The odds of a 50 basis points cut were around 28.5%.