Algeria Expects Oil Prices to Stabilize at $100 by Year's End

A general view of Sonatrach's Hassi R'mel gas field, Algeria (Reuters)
A general view of Sonatrach's Hassi R'mel gas field, Algeria (Reuters)
TT

Algeria Expects Oil Prices to Stabilize at $100 by Year's End

A general view of Sonatrach's Hassi R'mel gas field, Algeria (Reuters)
A general view of Sonatrach's Hassi R'mel gas field, Algeria (Reuters)

Oil prices are predicted to stabilize at $100 a barrel by the year-end, Algeria's Minister of Energy and Mines Mohamed Arkab said.

The Minister explained that despite the decline in oil prices and global recession concerns, the latest decision of OPEC+ countries to reduce production by two million barrels per day (bpd) should keep the market balance and the stability of oil prices at the level of $100 per barrel until the year-end.

"Oil prices recovered after the unprecedented markets collapse in early 2020 due to the appearance and spread of the coronavirus," Arkab noted.

The Minister said that crude oil prices, on average, exceeded the threshold of $109 per barrel by the end of September of this year, which contributed to the improvement of the overall indicators of the national economy.

He expected that his country's hydrocarbon revenues would exceed $50 billion by the end of the current year, adding that given the achievements recorded until September 2022, Algeria expects a two percent increase in primary hydrocarbon production by the end of the current year.

"Exports outside hydrocarbons will record an estimated increase of more than 40 percent compared to the achievements of 2021, driven mainly by the increase in exports of mining materials and petrochemical products," he added in statements carried by the official Algerian Press Agency (APZ).

Algeria's hydrocarbon exports rose 77 percent annually to $42.6 billion between January and September.

"Exports for the same period last year amounted to $24.1 billion," Arkab said.

Concerning investment in the energy and mining sector, the Minister indicated that a total of $6.3 billion was allocated during the first quarter of 2022, an eight percent increase compared to the same period in 2021.

Oil prices settled by more than five percent on Friday amid uncertainty around future interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, while a looming EU ban on Russian oil and the possibility of China easing some COVID restrictions supported markets.

Though fears of global recession capped gains, Brent crude futures settled up $3.99 to $98.57 per barrel, a weekly gain of 2.9 percent.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up $2.96, or five percent, at $92.61, a 4.7 percent weekly gain.

While demand concerns affect the market, supplies are also expected to decline with the start of the expected European embargo on Russian oil and the decline in US crude stocks.

The European Union ban on imports of Russian crude will take effect on Dec. 05.

China is sticking to its strict COVID-19 curbs after cases rose on Thursday to their highest since August, but a former Chinese disease control official said substantial changes to the country's COVID-19 policy are to take place soon.

Highlighting demand concerns, Saudi Arabia lowered the December official selling prices (OSPs) for the flagship Arab light crude it sells to Asia to plus $5.45 a barrel versus the Oman/Dubai average.

Meanwhile, Russia, which met India's minimal oil requirements till March this year, emerged as the country's biggest oil supplier in October, surpassing traditional sellers Saudi Arabia and Iraq, data from energy shipping tracking company Vortexa showed.

On Sunday, Russia supplied 935,556 bpd of crude oil to India last October, the highest rate ever.

The report said Russia in October accounted for 22 percent of India's total crude imports, compared to Iraq's 20.5 percent and Saudi Arabia's 16 percent.

Russian oil constituted no more than 0.2 percent of the total crude imported by India in the year until Mar. 31, 2022.

India has imported more Russian oil after the conflict in Ukraine broke out in late February.



Saudi Arabia Sees Highest Level of Non-oil Private Sector Activity in 4 Months

The 1.5-point increase in the PMI reflects a larger expansion in both output and new orders. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The 1.5-point increase in the PMI reflects a larger expansion in both output and new orders. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
TT

Saudi Arabia Sees Highest Level of Non-oil Private Sector Activity in 4 Months

The 1.5-point increase in the PMI reflects a larger expansion in both output and new orders. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The 1.5-point increase in the PMI reflects a larger expansion in both output and new orders. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Business activity in Saudi Arabia's non-oil sector accelerated to a four-month high in September, driven by strong demand, which led to faster growth in new orders. The Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), adjusted for seasonal factors, rose to 56.3 points from 54.8 in August, marking the highest reading since May and further distancing itself from the 50.0 level that indicates growth.

The 1.5-point increase in the PMI reflects a larger expansion in both output and new orders, alongside challenges in supply. The improvement in business conditions contributed to a significant rise in employment opportunities, although difficulties in finding skilled workers led to a shortage in production capacity.

At the same time, concerns over increasing competition caused a decline in future output expectations. According to the PMI statement, inventories of production inputs remained in good condition, which encouraged some companies to reduce their purchasing efforts.

Growth was strong overall and widespread across all non-oil sectors under study. Dr. Naif Al-Ghaith, Senior Economist at Riyad Bank, said that the rise in Saudi Arabia's PMI points to a notable acceleration in the growth of the non-oil private sector, primarily driven by increased production and new orders, reflecting the sector’s expansionary activity.

Al-Ghaith added that companies responded to the rise in domestic demand, which plays a crucial role in reducing the Kingdom's reliance on oil revenues. The upward trend also indicates improved business confidence, pointing to a healthy environment for increased investment, job creation, and overall economic stability.

He emphasized that this growth in the non-oil sector is particularly important given the current context of reduced oil production and falling global oil prices. With oil revenues under pressure, the strong performance of the non-oil private sector acts as a buffer, helping mitigate the potential impact on the country's economic conditions.

Al-Ghaith continued, noting that diversifying income sources is essential to maintaining growth amid the volatility of oil markets. He explained that increased production levels not only enhance the competitiveness of Saudi companies but also encourage developments aimed at expanding the private sector's participation in the economy.

This shift, he said, provides a more stable foundation for long-term growth, making the economy less susceptible to oil price fluctuations.