Lebanon’s National Currency Tumbles as Central Bank Issues ‘Ambiguous’ Measures

 The Lebanese pound at its worst (AFP)
The Lebanese pound at its worst (AFP)
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Lebanon’s National Currency Tumbles as Central Bank Issues ‘Ambiguous’ Measures

 The Lebanese pound at its worst (AFP)
The Lebanese pound at its worst (AFP)

The Lebanese pound exchange rate on the black market has slid to nearly LBP 40,000 to the US dollar amid conflicting reports about a delay in new regulatory measures that the Central Bank is preparing to take, which requires raising the price of allowances for withdrawals from hard currencies.

In parallel, authorities have started to work on collecting customs duties for imports with a rate of 15,000 to the US dollar.

Lebanon’s Central Bank had said it would halt purchases of dollars on its Sayrafa platform starting on Oct. 25 until further notice. The bank, however, would continue to sell exclusively dollars on its exchange rate platform.

Although the move was intended to strengthen the Lebanese pound, observers believe that money exchangers increasingly buying US dollars is an indication that the national currency will soon hit new lows.

A banking official explained to Asharq Al-Awsat that the “ambiguity” arising from the overlapping of monetary decisions “still prevents the possibility of determining the expected timing of the issuance of new measures.”

Despite impressions that measures were officially approved at the beginning of this month, it was reported that government agencies instructed the bank to slow down a little, in order to simultaneously link the validity of the financial steps related to the general budget with the monetary measures for withdrawals.

This reinforced expectations that the promised circulars will be issued before the middle of November.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat under the conditions of anonymity, the banker asserted that leaks from relevant sources at the Central Bank “match expectations for adopting a higher exchange rate for withdrawals from dollar accounts in Lebanese banks as a first step within the task of reorganizing exchange rates.”

Besides preparing for the unifying of exchange rates, the Central Bank is looking to implement a basic demand from the package of conditions handed over by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission in Lebanon.



World Bank Warns of Long-Term Fallout from Regional Conflict

 A man walks carrying shopping bags in a local market in downtown Riyadh (AFP). 
 A man walks carrying shopping bags in a local market in downtown Riyadh (AFP). 
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World Bank Warns of Long-Term Fallout from Regional Conflict

 A man walks carrying shopping bags in a local market in downtown Riyadh (AFP). 
 A man walks carrying shopping bags in a local market in downtown Riyadh (AFP). 

Amid mounting geopolitical tensions and growing economic uncertainty, the World Bank has warned that any conflict in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, could have far-reaching and negative consequences for the region and beyond.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the sidelines of the launch of the World Bank’s latest economic update for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Safaa El Tayeb El-Kogali, the Bank’s Regional Director for the GCC, stated: “Any conflict, especially in this region, can have long-lasting and adverse effects.” She noted that the fallout is not limited to energy markets alone, but also includes rising shipping costs, heightened inflationary pressures, and increased investor uncertainty.

While the World Bank’s latest report, which was released on June 1, does not reflect the most recent escalation in the region, El-Kogali emphasized that it is “still too early to fully assess the impact of the ongoing conflict.” She warned, however, that in such volatile conditions, investors tend to adopt a “wait-and-see” approach, delaying decisions until clarity and stability return.

Despite challenges in the energy market, El-Kogali highlighted the resilience of the Gulf economies, thanks to sustained efforts toward economic diversification. In 2024, while the oil sector contracted by 3% due to OPEC+ production cuts, non-oil sectors grew by 3.7%, helping drive overall GDP growth to 1.8% — a notable recovery from 0.3% in 2023.

The World Bank projects the GCC economies will grow by 3.2% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026, supported by easing oil production cuts and continued strength in non-oil sectors. However, El-Kogali stressed that these projections remain vulnerable to global trade volatility, oil price swings, and the evolving regional security landscape.

To mitigate risks, she urged Gulf countries to accelerate structural reforms, reduce dependency on oil, and boost intra-regional trade. Growth, she added, will also benefit from steady contributions from exports, investment, and domestic consumption.

El-Kogali emphasized that short-term risks include reduced export demand, oil market fluctuations, and regional instability affecting tourism and investor sentiment. Over the long term, threats such as low productivity growth, slow economic transformation, and over-reliance on fossil fuels could hinder progress.

She concluded by recommending fiscal diversification, tax reforms, and stronger regional trade links to create more resilient and adaptive Gulf economies.