Palestine Incurs $50Bln Economic Losses in Two Decades

Official statistics reveal an increase in the Palestinian trade deficit, exceeding half a billion dollars. (Reuters)
Official statistics reveal an increase in the Palestinian trade deficit, exceeding half a billion dollars. (Reuters)
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Palestine Incurs $50Bln Economic Losses in Two Decades

Official statistics reveal an increase in the Palestinian trade deficit, exceeding half a billion dollars. (Reuters)
Official statistics reveal an increase in the Palestinian trade deficit, exceeding half a billion dollars. (Reuters)

Additional restrictions imposed on Palestinian development in Israeli-controlled parts of the West Bank cost the Palestinian economy an estimated $50 billion between 2000 and 2020, the UN development agency said Tuesday.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said in report to the UN General Assembly that extra restrictions imposed within the West Bank's so-called Area C, which remains under full Israeli control, had cost $2.5 billion per year.

The report, titled “Economic costs of the Israeli occupation for the Palestinian people: The toll of the additional restrictions in Area C, 2000–2020”, estimates the cost of the additional restrictions at $2.5 billion per year.

It indicates that the cumulative cost during the two decades is equivalent to three times the West Bank GDP in 2020 and over 2.5 times the Palestinian GDP in the same year.

Area C of the occupied West Bank accounts for about 60% of the West Bank and incorporates all Israeli settlements. It is under Israeli civil and security control, the report noted.

Despite several UN Security Council and General Assembly resolutions that emphasize the illegality, under international law, of settlements and the acquisition of territory by force, they continue to grow and expand.

Under the 1993 Oslo Accords, the West Bank was split into three administrative divisions, with Area A controlled by the Palestinian Authority, Area B under split control and Area C remaining fully under Israeli control.

Area C, which is the only contiguous section of the West Bank and contains the most fertile land and valuable natural resources, was supposed to be gradually transferred to Palestinian jurisdiction, according to the accords, but that has not happened.

Instead, Area C is today home to around 400,000 settlers, with 70% of the land under their control and off limits for Palestinian development.

Meanwhile, Palestinian access to the remainder of Area C (30%) remains heavily restricted.

The report stressed that until the occupation is ended, foreign aid and donor support to the Palestinian people must be strengthened to avert future socioeconomic and humanitarian crises.

It underscored the importance of lifting all restrictions on Palestinian economic activity in Area C.

“Ending such restrictions would provide the Palestinian economy with a badly needed economic and natural resource base for developing their economy and reversing the current trend of deepening fiscal crisis and increasing socioeconomic deprivation.”

The report affirmed that ending the occupation of Area C of the West Bank and East Jerusalem is critical for the sustainable development of the Occupied Palestinian Territory because it will enable the Palestinian people to grow their economy several fold.

It indicated, citing different sources, that the occupying power provides generous incentives to settlers and entrepreneurs to facilitate industrial and agricultural ventures, which have encouraged hundreds of thousands of Israeli citizens to move to the subsidized settlements, where living standards are, on average, higher than in Israel.

According to the report, an array of restrictions imposed by the occupying power have constrained economic activities and the movement of people and goods in Areas A, B and C.

They include a ban on the importation of certain technology and inputs, a stringent permit regime, bureaucratic controls, checkpoints, gates, earth mounds, roadblocks and trenches in addition to the Separation Wall.

The report estimates the cost of these additional restrictions at 25% of the West Bank’s GDP and the annual contribution of these settlements to the economy of the occupying power at $41 billion or 227% of the total Palestinian GDP in 2021.

The report stressed that Palestinian access to all of Area C is necessary for the sustainable development of the Occupied Palestinian Territory and for the emergence of a viable, contiguous Palestinian State based on the two-state solution, in line with relevant UN resolutions.



Venezuela Depreciation Risks Reversing Years of Inflation Gains

People walk through a market in the low-income Petare neighborhood, in Caracas, Venezuela November 16, 2024. (Reuters)
People walk through a market in the low-income Petare neighborhood, in Caracas, Venezuela November 16, 2024. (Reuters)
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Venezuela Depreciation Risks Reversing Years of Inflation Gains

People walk through a market in the low-income Petare neighborhood, in Caracas, Venezuela November 16, 2024. (Reuters)
People walk through a market in the low-income Petare neighborhood, in Caracas, Venezuela November 16, 2024. (Reuters)

Currency depreciation is set to reverse years of declining inflation in economically beleaguered Venezuela, public and private sector sources say, as foreign currency sales fall short of demand and the socialist government keeps tight-lipped about its strategy.

After years of hyperinflation and amid broad US sanctions, in 2022 the administration of President Nicolas Maduro began using orthodox policies including credit restrictions, lower public spending, a fixed dollar-bolivar rate and central bank sales of billions of dollars in foreign currency to tamp down consumer prices.

Maduro, who will begin his third term in January after a disputed election that the opposition and international observers say he lost, has said his government defeated inflation of more than 100,000% and prices in 2024 are similar to those in 2014.

But the administration's policy has now changed.

After more than nine months of the exchange rate being held at 36.5 bolivars to the dollar, the government in mid-October allowed the currency to float, beginning a depreciation that has seen the bolivar slide to about 45 versus the dollar, according to central bank figures.

Analysts say the over-valued currency made imports cheaper than locally-produced goods, impacting Venezuela's private sector and helping push prices up by 12% in nine months.

The untethering of the exchange rate will also put upward pressure on prices in the final quarter of 2024, financial and business sources said, with analysts predicting in a LatinFocus survey the rate will end the year at 50 bolivars to the dollar.

Year-on-year inflation was 25% through September. Official figures for October have not yet been released.

"For nine months the depreciation of the currency was zero while inflation was rising, which exposed problems in the exchange scheme," said economics professor and consultant Daniel Cadenas, who added the market depends on oil income. "For the system to function, there needs to be a growing source of exchange and that's not possible."

The government had predicted internally that inflation would close the year at 30%, two sources with knowledge of the projection said, but depreciation could increase the figure and local analysts have estimated inflation between 35% and 40%.

"There has been a necessary adjustment in the exchange rate that will have an impact on inflation," said Asdrubal Oliveros, head of local think tank Ecoanalitica. "The government has understood it needs to devaluate."

REDUCED CENTRAL BANK SALES

Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who until recently also served as finance minister, told an event with business people last month that there must be "reflection" about the use of foreign exchange.

"We should all be concerned with how foreign exchange is used in imports. It is a subject the Finance Ministry is reviewing," she said. "We need to take care of foreign exchange because this is a blockaded country and there cannot be cheap exchange for hair dye."

Rodriguez's comments are the only ones made on the subject by the government since devaluation began. Neither the central bank nor the communications or finance ministries responded to requests for comment.

Private sector demand for cheap foreign exchange increased during the nine months the rate was held, even as the quantity of dollars being injected into the market by the central bank was reduced, sources said.

In July the bank was offering some $800 million, but by October that figure had fallen to $400 million, according to calculations by local consultancy Sintesis Financiera.

The central bank did not respond to a question about the reduction.

"The strategy in exchange policy is not going ahead," a government source said, without giving further details.

Food and medicine companies in Venezuela are allowed to pay for some of their goods with foreign currency, while other companies are given central bank promissory notes indexed to a specific exchange rate.

Two private sector sources said many businesses are eating through their inventories in the face of import difficulties.