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Türkiye’s Economic Growth Slows to 3.9% in Q3 as Foreign Demand Falls

A slow shutter speed exposure of people walking in the famous touristy Eminonu Square with Galata tower (R) in the background during the sunset in Istanbul, Türkiye, 28 November 2022. (EPA)
A slow shutter speed exposure of people walking in the famous touristy Eminonu Square with Galata tower (R) in the background during the sunset in Istanbul, Türkiye, 28 November 2022. (EPA)
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Türkiye’s Economic Growth Slows to 3.9% in Q3 as Foreign Demand Falls

A slow shutter speed exposure of people walking in the famous touristy Eminonu Square with Galata tower (R) in the background during the sunset in Istanbul, Türkiye, 28 November 2022. (EPA)
A slow shutter speed exposure of people walking in the famous touristy Eminonu Square with Galata tower (R) in the background during the sunset in Istanbul, Türkiye, 28 November 2022. (EPA)

Türkiye’s economy expanded 3.9% in the third quarter from a year ago, according to official data released on Wednesday, though growth slowed from the previous quarter as a global slowdown put a drag on exports, but the tourism sector remained strong.

Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 0.1% from the previous quarter on a seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis, data from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed, marking the first contraction since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in the second quarter of 2020.

Economists expect full-year growth of 5%, in line with forecasts, according to the latest Reuters poll, after a strong first half of the year.

Economists expect growth to slow further in Q4.

"It seems it is still possible to attain the 5% growth target if there is no quarterly contraction of more than 0.5% in Q4," Haluk Burumcekci, of Burumcekci Consulting, said.

The outlook for 2023 remains uncertain. A national election should take place no later than June, and an opposition victory could see a sharp reversal of President Tayyip Erdogan's economic policies.

Private consumption remained strong in the third quarter.

Analysts predicted growth would slow in the second half due to a downward trend in foreign demand, notably among Türkiye’s largest trade partners.

To counter the slowdown, Türkiye’s central bank embarked on an easing cycle between August and November, slashing its policy rate by 500 basis points to 9%.

Erdogan's economic program over the last 14 months prioritized growth and exports.

Central bank interest rate cuts that were sought by Erdogan last year led to a 44% depreciation in the lira and it has lost another 29% against the dollar this year, sending inflation to a 24-year high of more than 85% in October.

Last year, Türkiye’s economy bounced back strongly from the COVID-19 pandemic and grew 11.4%, its highest rate in a decade. Annual growth in the second quarter of 2022 was revised to 7.7% from 7.6%, data showed on Wednesday.

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Fire, Smoke Upend Western Canada’s Summer Tourism Season

A helicopter works a forest fire outside of Jasper, Alberta, Canada, on Friday July 26, 2024. (Reuters)
A helicopter works a forest fire outside of Jasper, Alberta, Canada, on Friday July 26, 2024. (Reuters)
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Fire, Smoke Upend Western Canada’s Summer Tourism Season

A helicopter works a forest fire outside of Jasper, Alberta, Canada, on Friday July 26, 2024. (Reuters)
A helicopter works a forest fire outside of Jasper, Alberta, Canada, on Friday July 26, 2024. (Reuters)

Severe wildfire seasons are increasingly hurting western Canada's lucrative tourism industry, with some visitors beginning to avoid the busy late-summer months due to concerns about uncontrolled blazes, smoke-filled skies and road closures.

After a scorching start to July, nearly 600 wildfires are now ablaze across British Columbia and Alberta, including a huge fire that this week devastated the picturesque tourist town of Jasper in the Canadian Rockies.

Dozens of communities, including popular holiday spots in British Columbia's Kootenay region, are under evacuation orders and several highways are closed.

This year's surge in wildfire activity comes after Canada endured its worst-ever year for wildfires in 2023, when more than 15 million hectares (37 million acres) burned, including parts of the city of West Kelowna in the heart of British Columbia's wine region.

Ellen Walker-Matthews, head of the Thompson Okanagan Tourism Association, said the industry was seeing a lot more last-minute travel decisions instead of booking in advance.

"It's a huge blow. July and August are traditionally the busiest months in the region," said Walker-Matthews, adding that while her region has been relatively unscathed by wildfires this summer, some visitors are choosing to avoid interior British Columbia altogether.

The members of the British Columbia Lodging and Campgrounds Association are reporting a 5-15% drop in bookings from a year ago, with the biggest declines coming from the hotter Okanagan and Cariboo regions, said Joss Penny, who heads the association.

"The concern is that this is something we have to live with and we have it every year now," said Penny.

Although wildfires in Canada's forests are natural and common, scientists say drier, hotter conditions fueled by climate change are leading to more volatile and frequent blazes.

'SMOKEY SKIES'

Some events, like the Salmon Arm Roots and Blues Festival, usually held in August, have now been rescheduled to earlier in the summer to avoid what is now seen as peak smoke season. The festival, which was cancelled last year due to nearby wildfires, was this year moved to July to benefit from "less smokey skies."

Wildfires and extreme climatic events are prompting tourists to "change their plans not just temporarily, but permanently," said Elizabeth Halpenny, a tourism researcher and professor at the University of Alberta, noting that seasonal workers in the sector are often the hardest hit as they have few protections during a bad season or amid a cataclysmic fire.

Tourism contributed C$7.2 billion to the British Columbia economy in 2022, and C$9.9 billion to Alberta in 2023, according to the latest government data.

Jasper National Park is one of Canada's premier tourist destinations, with more than 2 million visitors a year flocking to see its pristine mountain landscapes and abundant wildlife, including grizzly bears, moose and elk.

Kelly Torrens, vice-president of product at international tour company Kensington Tours, described western Canada as a bucket-list destination. But the company now has 49 trips that were supposed to pass through Jasper this season in limbo. Six others were forced to evacuate the park when the fire hit.

Parks Canada has cancelled all camping reservations within Jasper National Park until Aug. 6 and with potentially 50% of the town's structures destroyed by fire, the cleanup and rebuild could take years.

Halpenny is among those hedging their bets.

"I've booked a campsite stay in the mountain parks but at the same time, I booked a campsite out on the prairie somewhere and that's my backup plan because I don't want to miss out on my vacation with my family."