World Food Price Index Remains Stable in November

World Food Price Index Remains Stable in November
TT

World Food Price Index Remains Stable in November

World Food Price Index Remains Stable in November

The United Nations food agency's global price index remained stable in November amid decline in international prices of cereals, meat and dairy products driven by the agreement to prolong a UN-backed grain export channel from Ukraine.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) price index, which tracks the most globally traded food commodities, averaged 135.7 points in November, down from 135.9 for October, the agency said on Friday.

It pointed out that the figures published mark an eighth straight monthly fall since a record high in March after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Lower readings for cereals, meat and dairy products in November offset higher prices for vegetable oils and sugar, the FAO said.

The slight decrease in November meant that the FAO food index is now only 0.3% above its level a year earlier, the agency added.

Last month's agreement to prolong a UN-backed grain export channel from Ukraine for another 120 days has tempered worries about war disruption to massive Black Sea trade.

The FAO Cereal Price Index declined by 1.3% from the previous month, but it was still up 6.3% from its value a year ago.

World wheat and maize prices declined in November by 2.8% and 1.7%, respectively, partly influenced by the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index increased by 2.3% in November, ending seven consecutive months of decline. International palm and soy oil prices rose, while those of rapeseed and sunflower oils dropped.

The FAO Sugar Price Index rose 5.2% in November, influenced by strong buying trend amid tight global sugar supplies due to harvest delays in key producing countries and the announcement by India of a lower sugar export quota.

In separate cereal supply and demand estimates, the FAO lowered its forecast for global cereal production in 2022 to 2.756 billion tons from 2.764 billion estimated last month.

The forecast was 2% below the estimated output for 2021 and would mark a three-year low, the agency noted.

The agency further stated on Friday that 45 countries around the world, including 33 in Africa, nine in Asia, two in Latin America and the Caribbean and one in Europe, are assessed to be in need of external assistance for food due to conflicts, extreme weather events and soaring inflation rates.

Separately, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) launched on Thursday the Global Humanitarian Appeal for 2023 with a record $51.5 billion required to reach 230 million people in crisis.

As part of the appeal, the FAO said that it would need $1.9 billion to reach 48 million who rely on agriculture and subsistence farming, with lifesaving and livelihood assistance in 2023.



Oil Retreats Slightly after Boost from US Crude Draw, Russia Sanctions

Oil Retreats Slightly after Boost from US Crude Draw, Russia Sanctions
TT

Oil Retreats Slightly after Boost from US Crude Draw, Russia Sanctions

Oil Retreats Slightly after Boost from US Crude Draw, Russia Sanctions

Oil prices fell back slightly on Thursday, a day after settling at multi-month highs on the latest US sanctions on Russia and a larger-than-forecast fall in US crude stocks.

Brent crude futures were down 37 cents, or 0.5%, to $81.66 per barrel by 1042 GMT, after rising 2.6% in the previous session to their highest since July 26 last year.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures slid 35 cents, or 0.4%, to $79.69 a barrel, after gaining 3.3% on Wednesday to their highest since July 19.

US crude oil stocks fell last week to their lowest since April 2022 as exports rose and imports fell, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.

The 2 million-barrel draw was more than the 992,000-barrel decline analysts had expected in a Reuters poll.

The drop added to a tightened global supply outlook after the US imposed broader sanctions on Russian oil producers and tankers. The sanctions have sent Moscow's top customers scouring the globe for replacement barrels, while shipping rates have surged too.

The Biden administration on Wednesday imposed hundreds of additional sanctions targeting Russia's military industrial base and evasion schemes.

On Monday, Donald Trump will be sworn in for his second term as US president.

With oil at its current levels, that may lead to clashes with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) if Trump follows his previous playbook. During his first term he demanded the producer group rein in prices whenever Brent climbed to around $80.

OPEC and its allies, which collectively as OPEC+ have been curtailing output over the past two years, are likely to be cautious about increasing supply despite the recent price rally, said Commodity Context founder Rory Johnston, according to Reuters.

"The producer group has had its optimism dashed so frequently over the past year that it is likely to err on the side of caution before beginning the cut-easing process," Johnston said.

Limiting oil's gains, Israel and Hamas agreed to a deal to halt fighting in Gaza and exchange Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, according to an official.

On the demand front, global oil expanded by 1.2 million barrels per day in the first two weeks in 2025 from the same period a year earlier, slightly below expectations, JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note.

The analysts expect oil demand to grow by 1.4 million bpd year on year in coming weeks, driven by heightened travel activities in India, where a huge festival gathering is taking place, as well as by travel for Lunar New Year celebrations in China at the end of January.

Some investors are also eying potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve in 2025 following data on an easing in core US inflation - which could lend support to economic activities and energy consumption.