Asian Equities, Oil Prices Dragged by Recession Fears

A pedestrian walks past a stock indicator displaying the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (C, top) and other world stock markets in Tokyo on 16 August 2021. AFP
A pedestrian walks past a stock indicator displaying the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (C, top) and other world stock markets in Tokyo on 16 August 2021. AFP
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Asian Equities, Oil Prices Dragged by Recession Fears

A pedestrian walks past a stock indicator displaying the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (C, top) and other world stock markets in Tokyo on 16 August 2021. AFP
A pedestrian walks past a stock indicator displaying the Nikkei 225 of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (C, top) and other world stock markets in Tokyo on 16 August 2021. AFP

Asian investors extended a sell-off across global markets Wednesday while oil held losses on growing fears Federal Reserve monetary tightening will tip the US economy into recession.

The drop followed another day deep in the red for New York's three main indexes after the heads of Wall Street's leading banks warned of tough times ahead in 2023, AFP said.

JPMorgan Chase chief Jamie Dimon tipped a "mild to hard recession" and Goldman Sachs' David Solomon said jobs and pay would be hit, while Morgan Stanley and Bank of America were also uneasy about the outlook.

The comments added to the downbeat mood that has coursed through trading floors at the start of the week, after forecast-beating reports on jobs and the giant US services sector fanned worries the Fed will have to push interest rates higher than hoped.

Markets had been rising healthily ahead of Friday's employment figures after a weaker-than-expected inflation reading for October suggested the almost year-long tightening campaign was finally affecting prices.

"Any hopes that the Fed would turn more dovish in the months ahead have been dashed significantly as the vast US services industry is where sticky inflation hangs out," said SPI Asset Management's Stephen Innes.

He added that the latest readings suggest rates will go above five percent before the Fed stops hiking, while several observers have suggested they will not be reduced until 2024.

In early trade, Tokyo, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Manila and Jakarta were all down. However, Hong Kong, which has been the standout performer in recent weeks, clipped slightly higher.

But Lauren Goodwin, at New York Life Investments, saw further pain ahead for markets.

"We have not yet seen the bottom on equity prices," she said, according to Bloomberg News. "While this phase of equity market volatility is likely to end in the next few months, earnings have not yet adapted to a recessionary environment."

The sombre outlook overshadowed hopes that China's moves to wind back some of its harsh Covid rules will kickstart the world's number two economy, which has been battered this year by months of lockdowns and other containment measures.

It also kept oil prices at lows not seen for around a year as demand expectations tumble.

Brent on Tuesday sank below $80 for the first time since January, while WTI was at its lowest since December, having plunged from the 14-year highs of around $140 touched in March after Russia invaded Ukraine. Both contracts were barely moved in Asian trade.

"The crude demand outlook is getting crushed as we are in a slowdown basically across all the major economies," said OANDA's Edward Moya.

"Supplies seem plentiful over the near term and that has everyone hesitating on what was one of the easiest trades of the year."

- Key figures around 0230 GMT -
Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.5 percent at 27,756.94 (break)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 0.5 percent at 19,529.70

Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.3 percent at 3,201.71

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0465 from $1.0470 on Tuesday

Dollar/yen: UP at 137.11 yen from 137.04 yen

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2135 from $1.2133

Euro/pound: DOWN at 86.24 pence from 86.26 pence

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.1 percent at $74.16 per barrel

Brent North Sea crude: UP 0.2 percent at $79.48 per barrel

New York - Dow: DOWN 1.0 percent at 33,596.34 (close)

London - FTSE 100: DOWN 0.6 percent at 7,521.39 (close)



Oil Dips as Economic Concerns, Supply and Demand Expectations Weigh

A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
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Oil Dips as Economic Concerns, Supply and Demand Expectations Weigh

A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo
A pumpjack brings oil to the surface in the Monterey Shale, California, US April 29, 2013. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/File Photo

Oil prices slipped on Thursday after surging in the previous session on a larger-than-expected draw in US gasoline stocks, as markets weighed macroeconomic concerns and demand versus supply expectations. Brent futures were down 30 cents to $70.65 a barrel at 1140 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 31 cents to $67.37 a barrel.

Both benchmarks rallied about 2% on Wednesday after US government data showed tighter-than-expected oil and fuel inventories.

US gasoline inventories fell by 5.7 million barrels, more than the 1.9 million-barrel draw expected by analysts, while distillate stocks also dropped more than anticipated, despite gains in crude stocks, Reuters reported.

"Declining US gasoline inventories raised expectations for a seasonal demand increase in spring, but concerns about the global economic impact of tariff wars weighed on the market," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment.

"With strong and weak factors progressing simultaneously, it has become difficult for the market to lean decisively in one direction or the other," he added. US President Donald Trump threatened on Wednesday to escalate a global trade war with further tariffs on European Union goods, as major US trading partners said they would retaliate for trade barriers already erected by the US president.

Trump's focus on tariffs has rattled investors, consumers and business confidence, and raised US recession fears. With the US president's stated commitment to cheaper oil, Citi analysts said their outlook for Brent by the second half of 2025 is $60 a barrel.

Global oil supply could

exceed demand

by around 600,000 barrels per day this year, the International Energy Agency said on Thursday, revising down its 2025 demand growth forecast. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said on Wednesday that Kazakhstan led a sizeable jump in February crude output by the wider OPEC+, highlighting a challenge for the producer group in enforcing adherence to agreed output targets, even as it intends to unwind production cuts.

Worries about flagging jet fuel demand weighed further on markets, with JP Morgan analysts saying that US Transportation Security Administration data showed "passenger volumes for March have decreased by 5% year-over-year, following stagnant traffic in February".

However, recent firm global demand numbers limited overall market weakness.

"As of March 11, global oil demand averaged 102.2 million barrels per day, expanding 1.7 million barrels per day year-over-year and exceeding our projected increase for the month by 60,000 barrels per day," the JP Morgan analysts added.