GCC’s Total Foreign Merchandise Trade Value Reaches $1.146 Tn

Foreign merchandise trade of the GCC countries is on the rise with the growth of exports (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Foreign merchandise trade of the GCC countries is on the rise with the growth of exports (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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GCC’s Total Foreign Merchandise Trade Value Reaches $1.146 Tn

Foreign merchandise trade of the GCC countries is on the rise with the growth of exports (Asharq Al-Awsat)
Foreign merchandise trade of the GCC countries is on the rise with the growth of exports (Asharq Al-Awsat)

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) total international merchandise trade movement reached $1.146 trillion, compared to $840.7 billion in 2020, an increase of 36.4 percent.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia contributed about three-quarters of the volume of foreign merchandise trade, while the total merchandise exports in 2021 amounted to $668.6 billion, an increase of 52.5 percent compared to 2020.

The GCC Statistical Center revealed that national exports originating from GCC countries increased 57.2 percent to $564.4 billion, compared to 2020, while the value of re-exported goods saw a 30.9 percent increase to $104.2 billion in 2021.

The GCC’s merchandise balance surplus in 2021 increased 423.9 percent to $190.6 billion last year, compared to $36.4 billion in 2020.

Oil and its products accounted for 73.7 percent of GCC exports, amounting to about $415.9 billion in 2021, compared to $252.2 billion in 2020, with a growth rate of 64.9 percent over the previous year.

Other commodity exports from the GCC include plastics and its products at 5.9 percent, gold and precious stones at 5.4 percent, organic chemical products at 3.2 percent, and aluminum at 2.9 percent.

Machinery and electrical appliances represented 24 percent of the re-exported goods in the past year, to reach $25 billion, compared to $20 billion in 2020.

Other re-exports from the GCC include gold and precious stones at 25 percent, machinery and mechanical equipment at 11.8 percent, cars and vehicle parts at 10.2 percent, and oil and its products at 4.8 percent.

The gold and precious stones sector topped the list of imports with 16.2 percent, amounting to $77.2 billion, an increase of 46 percent compared to 2020, followed by machinery and electrical appliances at 13.2 percent, then machinery and automated equipment at 11.6 percent.

Other import products include cars and vehicle parts, accounting for nine percent, and pharmaceutical products, accounting for 3.4 percent.

China ranked first as GCC’s top trading partner in 2021 in total merchandise exports, accounting for 19.5 percent.

Last year, GCC’s exports to China reached $130.6 billion, compared to $71 billion in 2020, a growth of 83.9 percent, while India ranked second at 13.9 percent, followed by Japan at 11.5 percent, and South Korea at 5.9 percent.

In 2021, the GCC imported $98.3 billion in products from China, compared to $77.2 billion in 2020, an increase of 27.3 percent.

Total merchandise imports include the US at 8.6 percent, India at 7.5 percent, Japan at 4.6 percent, and Germany at 4.2 percent.



Investors Weigh Market Risks as Israeli-Iranian Tensions Rise

Traders monitoring the movement of stocks on Wall Street (Reuters)
Traders monitoring the movement of stocks on Wall Street (Reuters)
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Investors Weigh Market Risks as Israeli-Iranian Tensions Rise

Traders monitoring the movement of stocks on Wall Street (Reuters)
Traders monitoring the movement of stocks on Wall Street (Reuters)

As the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates, investors are analyzing several potential market scenarios, especially if the United States deepens its involvement. A key concern is a sharp increase in energy prices, which could amplify economic consequences across global markets.

Rising oil prices could fuel inflation, weaken consumer confidence, and diminish the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the near term. This may prompt initial stock market sell-offs and a flight to the US dollar as a safe-haven asset.

While US crude oil prices have surged by around 10% over the past week, the S&P 500 index has remained relatively stable, following a brief decline after the initial Israeli strikes.

Analysts suggest that if Iranian oil supplies are disrupted, market reactions could intensify significantly. A serious supply disruption would likely ripple through global petroleum markets and push oil prices higher, leading to broader economic consequences.

Oxford Economics has outlined three possible scenarios: a de-escalation of conflict, a full suspension of Iranian oil production, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Each scenario carries escalating risks to global oil prices. In the most severe case, prices could soar to $130 per barrel, pushing US inflation to nearly 6% by year-end. In such a scenario, consumer spending would likely contract due to declining real income, and any possibility of interest rate cuts this year would likely vanish under rising inflationary pressure.

So far, the most direct impact has been felt in oil markets, where Brent crude futures have jumped as much as 18% since June 10, reaching nearly $79 a barrel, the highest level in five months. Volatility expectations in the oil market now exceed those of major asset classes like equities and bonds.

Although equities have largely brushed off the geopolitical turmoil, analysts believe this could change if energy prices continue to climb. Rising oil prices could weigh on corporate earnings and consumer demand, indirectly pressuring stock markets.

While US stocks have held steady for now, further American involvement in the conflict could spark market anxiety. Historical patterns suggest any sell-off might be short-lived. For instance, during the 2003 Iraq invasion, stocks initially dropped but recovered in subsequent months.

As for the US dollar, its performance amid escalating tensions could vary. It may strengthen initially due to safe-haven demand, although past conflicts have sometimes led to long-term weakness, especially during prolonged military engagements.