Will Netanyahu Clip the Wings of His New Cabinet Hawks?

Newly sworn-in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (R) chairs the first cabinet meeting of his new government in Jerusalem, on December 29, 2022. (AFP)
Newly sworn-in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (R) chairs the first cabinet meeting of his new government in Jerusalem, on December 29, 2022. (AFP)
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Will Netanyahu Clip the Wings of His New Cabinet Hawks?

Newly sworn-in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (R) chairs the first cabinet meeting of his new government in Jerusalem, on December 29, 2022. (AFP)
Newly sworn-in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (R) chairs the first cabinet meeting of his new government in Jerusalem, on December 29, 2022. (AFP)

One is a pistol-packing ex-member of an outlawed Jewish militant group. The other is a religious fundamentalist. Both are West Bank settlers averse to Palestinians' self-rule - let alone their hopes of statehood.

And as senior coalition partners to reelected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich will be within reach of the levers of power - a troubling prospect for Israel's once-dominant secular-left and friends in the West.

Netanyahu turned to the ultra-nationalists after centrist parties boycotted him over his long-running corruption trial. He needs their support to stay in office as he argues his innocence in court. But he denies this spells pliability to their demands.

"I will navigate this government. The other parties are joining me. I'm not joining them," Netanyahu told Al Arabiya on Dec. 15, pledging to enforce "liberal rightist" policymaking.

Besides, he said, "a lot of them have changed and moderated their views, principally because with the assumption of power comes responsibility".

There may be precedent in Avigdor Lieberman, a firebrand whose 2006 appointment as deputy prime minister triggered much the same response as Ben-Gvir's rise: liberal warnings of civil war and, on Israel's top TV satire, his lampooning as a Nazi.

Lieberman proved to be politically adaptable. He served in various coalitions - one of which included an Islamist party - and ended up in the current opposition, from which he has scorned Netanyahu's new allies as "zealots and extremists".

Still, Lieberman could also play spoiler from the right. As Netanyahu's foreign minister in a previous government, he would publicly promote a harder line on the Palestinians than the premier's. In a later term, Lieberman resigned as Netanyahu's defense minister in protest at a Gaza truce he deemed too lax.

Netanyahu's conservative Likud party has now retained the defense and foreign ministries. But the optics around Ben-Gvir and Smotrich may yet prove combustible for him - for example, if either man visits or prays at Jerusalem's Al-Aqsa mosque compound, an icon of Palestinian nationalism which is also the holiest site for Judaism as vestige of its two ancient temples.

Netanyahu's previous 15 years as premier saw him feathering the nests of the hawks in his cabinet - or clipping their wings - as he deemed necessary. Back then, however, he had parties to his left to help him function as an ideological fulcrum.

"With all the parties in the incoming government situated to Netanyahu's right, it will be difficult for him to replicate that role this time," argued Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute think-tank. "Does he want to?"

Pacing themselves

On Ben-Gvir's and Smotrich's calls for West Bank annexations, Netanyahu is on record as being in favor while also avoiding action on the ground that would risk escalating into confrontations with Washington or Arab partners.

Yet Smotrich did carve out a cabinet niche for himself overseeing settlements, which most world powers deem illegal for taking occupied land that Palestinians want for a state.

"He can be effective in multiplying and consolidating Israel's presence in the West Bank," said Amotz Asa-El, research fellow at the Shalom Hartman Institute, noting Smotrich's high pace of infrastructure-building as a former transport minister.

For Ben-Gvir, by contrast, this is the first stint in government. As police minister, he will focus on law-and-order issues important to a swathe of Israelis, Asa-El predicted - including crime-hit Arabs against whom Ben-Gvir once agitated.

"After legitimating his position in broader Israeli circles, he will proceed to the realms that not all agree on - namely the West Bank," Asa-El said. But that may have to wait, as Ben-Gvir's portfolio does not grant major powers in the West Bank, which is under the overall control of the military.

Arguably, Ben-Gvir, 46, and Smotrich, 42, can afford to shelve some of their agendas for this round with Netanyahu, 73.

"But that's counting on restraint from people who come from very different ideological world-views than what we've seen in Israeli governments before," said Daniel Shapiro, a former US envoy to Israel and now Atlantic Council distinguished fellow.

Ben-Gvir came up through the Kahane Chai group, which is blacklisted in Israel and the United States for its virulently anti-Arab doctrines. Smotrich's advocacy of Jewish claims on the West Bank is informed by a doctrinaire faith in Bible prophesy.

Earlier generations of Israeli far-rightists in government "demonstrated an interest and capacity to engage in a genuine two-way dialogue with the United States and other international players, and seemed to recognize the limits on pursuing some of their most ideological positions," Shapiro said.

"It remains to be seen whether that approach will characterize members of the incoming coalition."

Alan Dershowitz, a prominent American-Jewish jurist who has advised US and Israeli leaders, said Ben-Gvir and Smotrich disavowed racism and homophobia in meetings with him this month.

"The word 'balance' came up a number of times" in their reassurances during the conversations, Dershowitz told Reuters.

"Obviously they were in some ways trying to get me to have a positive impression of them," he said. "Let's see what happens when I'm not in the room and the people in the room are pushing them to become more extreme. That's the litmus test."



What to Know about the Tensions Between Iran and the US Before their Second Round of Talks

This combination of pictures created on November 7, 2024 shows Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei (L) in Tehran on July 5, 2024, and then Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump (R) in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on November 4, 2024. Atta Kenare, Charly Triballeau, AFP
This combination of pictures created on November 7, 2024 shows Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei (L) in Tehran on July 5, 2024, and then Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump (R) in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on November 4, 2024. Atta Kenare, Charly Triballeau, AFP
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What to Know about the Tensions Between Iran and the US Before their Second Round of Talks

This combination of pictures created on November 7, 2024 shows Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei (L) in Tehran on July 5, 2024, and then Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump (R) in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on November 4, 2024. Atta Kenare, Charly Triballeau, AFP
This combination of pictures created on November 7, 2024 shows Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei (L) in Tehran on July 5, 2024, and then Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump (R) in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on November 4, 2024. Atta Kenare, Charly Triballeau, AFP

Iran and the United States will hold talks Saturday in Rome, their second round of negotiations over Tehran´s rapidly advancing nuclear program.

The talks follow a first round held in Muscat, Oman, where the two sides spoke face to face.

Trump has imposed new sanctions on Iran as part of his "maximum pressure" campaign targeting the country. He has repeatedly suggested military action against Iran remained a possibility, while emphasizing he still believed a new deal could be reached by writing a letter to Iran´s 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to jump start these talks.
Khamenei has warned Iran would respond to any attack with an attack of its own.

Here´s what to know about the letter, Iran´s nuclear program and the tensions that have stalked relations between Tehran and Washington since the 1979 Iranian Revolution.

Trump dispatched the letter to Khamenei on March 5, then gave a television interview the next day in which he acknowledged sending it. He said: "I´ve written them a letter saying, `I hope you´re going to negotiate because if we have to go in militarily, it´s going to be a terrible thing.´"
Since returning to the White House, the president has been pushing for talks while ratcheting up sanctions and suggesting a military strike by Israel or the US could target Iranian nuclear sites.

A previous letter from Trump during his first term drew an angry retort from the supreme leader.

But Trump´s letters to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in his first term led to face-to-face meetings, though no deals to limit Pyongyang´s atomic bombs and a missile program capable of reaching the continental US.

Oman, a sultanate on the eastern edge of the Arabian Peninsula, hosted the first round of talks between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff last weekend. The two men met face to face after indirect talks and immediately agreed to this second round.

Witkoff later made a television appearance in which he suggested 3.67% enrichment for Iran could be something the countries could agree on. But that´s exactly the terms set by the 2015 nuclear deal struck under US President Barack Obama, from which Trump unilaterally withdrew America.

Witkoff hours later issued a statement underlining something: "A deal with Iran will only be completed if it is a Trump deal." Araghchi and Iranian officials have latched onto Witkoff´s comments in recent days as a sign that America was sending it mixed signals about the negotiations.

Iran has insisted for decades that its nuclear program is peaceful. However, its officials increasingly threaten to pursue a nuclear weapon. Iran now enriches uranium to near weapons-grade levels of 60%, the only country in the world without a nuclear weapons program to do so.

Under the original 2015 nuclear deal, Iran was allowed to enrich uranium up to 3.67% purity and to maintain a uranium stockpile of 300 kilograms (661 pounds). The last report by the International Atomic Energy Agency on Iran´s program put its stockpile at 8,294.4 kilograms (18,286 pounds) as it enriches a fraction of it to 60% purity.

US intelligence agencies assess that Iran has yet to begin a weapons program, but has "undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so."

Ali Larijani, an adviser to Iran´s supreme leader, has warned in a televised interview that his country has the capability to build nuclear weapons, but it is not pursuing it and has no problem with the International Atomic Energy Agency´s inspections. However, he said if the US or Israel were to attack Iran over the issue, the country would have no choice but to move toward nuclear weapon development.

"If you make a mistake regarding Iran´s nuclear issue, you will force Iran to take that path, because it must defend itself," he said.

Iran was once one of the US´s top allies in the Mideast under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who purchased American military weapons and allowed CIA technicians to run secret listening posts monitoring the neighboring Soviet Union. The CIA had fomented a 1953 coup that cemented the shah´s rule.

But in January 1979, the shah, fatally ill with cancer, fled Iran as mass demonstrations swelled against his rule. The Iranian Revolution followed, led by Grand Ruhollah Khomeini, and created Iran´s theocratic government.

Later that year, university students overran the US Embassy in Tehran, seeking the shah´s extradition and sparking the 444-day hostage crisis that saw diplomatic relations between Iran and the US severed. The Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s saw the US back Saddam Hussein. The "Tanker War" during that conflict saw the US launch a one-day assault that crippled Iran at sea, while the US later shot down an Iranian commercial airliner that the American military said it mistook for a warplane.

Iran and the US have see-sawed between enmity and grudging diplomacy in the years since, with relations peaking when Tehran made the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. But Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the accord, sparking tensions in the Mideast that persist today.