Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
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Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini

Iran's regime is divided in its response to months of unprecedented protests, wavering between repression and what it views as conciliatory gestures trying to quell the discontent, analysts say.

"The conflicting messages we are getting from the Iranian regime suggest an internal debate on how to deal with ongoing protests," said Nader Hashemi, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver.

"In most authoritarian regimes, there are hawks and doves" who disagree on how repressive the state should be during crises, he said.

The granting of retrials to several death-row protesters, and the release from detention of prominent dissidents, are signs that some seek to take a softer approach, AFP reported.

But a reminder of the hardline tack came Saturday when Iran executed two men for killing a paramilitary member during protest-related unrest.

Demonstrations began after the September 16 death in custody of Kurdish-Iranian Mahsa Amini, 22. She had been arrested by morality police who enforce a strict dress code which requires women to wear a scarf-like covering over their hair and neck.

The protests have escalated into calls for an end to the regime, posing the biggest challenge for the clerics since the 1979 revolution deposed the shah.

Authorities have responded with deadly violence that has left hundreds dead.

Thousands have been arrested and 14 detainees sentenced to hang, many for killing or attacking security force members, according to the judiciary.

The Supreme Court has upheld some of the death sentences and a total of four men have now been executed. The judiciary has also announced retrials for six of the 14.

This reflects a "political calculus", said US-based Iran expert Mehrzad Boroujerdi, co-author of "Post-Revolutionary Iran: A Political Handbook".

"They know that mass executions will bring more people into the streets and further agitate them. On the other hand, they want to send a signal that they are not reticent to execute protesters so that people are intimidated."

In what analysts see as another attempt to calm the situation, two prominent dissidents arrested early during the protests, Majid Tavakoli and Hossein Ronaghi, were freed weeks later. Ronaghi had been on a hunger strike.

The regime is using "everything from pressure release valves to long prison terms and executions. They are experimenting with these as they struggle to formulate a more clearly articulated policy," Boroujerdi said.

Anoush Ehteshami, director of the Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at the UK's Durham University, said the retrials partly reflected mounting foreign and domestic pressure.

"But also within the regime there is division about how to handle this," Ehteshami said, with hardliners on one side and others who see executions as further encouraging resistance.

Retrials and the release of dissidents are "measures of appeasement... to try and throw a bone" to the protesters, he added.

While such measures may appear insignificant, from the perspective of a "securitized, beleaguered regime... they think they are being magnanimous and responding to public pressure".



Tehran Ready for Negotiations with Washington ‘Based on Trust’

Iranian government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani. (Jamaran news)
Iranian government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani. (Jamaran news)
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Tehran Ready for Negotiations with Washington ‘Based on Trust’

Iranian government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani. (Jamaran news)
Iranian government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani. (Jamaran news)

The Iranian government stated on Tuesday that upcoming negotiations in Geneva over its nuclear program will be guided by the directives of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the interests of the Iranian people.

Iran plans to hold talks on Friday in Geneva with France, Britain and Germany, following a recent resolution by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) censuring Tehran for its lack of cooperation on its nuclear activities.

Government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani confirmed that the meeting between Iran’s deputy foreign minister and representatives from the three European nations will proceed under the framework of “national interests as emphasized by the Supreme Leader.” She noted that discussions will encompass bilateral, regional and international issues, including the crises in Gaza and Lebanon and broader efforts to promote peace in the region.

Asked about the possibility of direct negotiations with the United States, Mohajerani stated that Tehran is “open to considering any proposal aligned with its national interests.” However, she stressed that “dialogue requires respect and trust, which cannot be built through mere rhetoric.”

Majid Takht-Ravanchi, Deputy Foreign Minister for International Affairs, will lead the Iranian delegation at the Geneva talks, according to Iranian media.

Media outlets close to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) expressed cautious optimism about the Geneva talks, but tempered expectations. The IRGC-affiliated Nour News described the meeting as a “small but significant opportunity for both sides to find common ground and reduce unnecessary tensions that have strained their relations in recent years.”

Both Iran and its European counterparts appear inclined to pursue de-escalation and resume diplomatic channels to resolve disputes, it reported. Analysts quoted by the site characterized the talks as “an essential step in rebuilding trust between Iran and Europe.” If sustained, these efforts could end the two-year stalemate in negotiations over the nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

The IAEA’s Board of Governors recently passed a resolution urging Iran to increase its cooperation with the agency. The resolution called for the IAEA Director General to deliver “a comprehensive and updated assessment on the possible presence or use of undeclared nuclear materials in connection with Iran’s past and current nuclear activities.”

Western powers, including the United States, France, Britain and Germany, dismissed Iran’s last-minute proposal to limit its stockpile of 60%-enriched uranium—close to weapons-grade—as “inadequate and insincere.”

In response, Iran announced the activation of advanced centrifuges at its Fordow and Natanz uranium enrichment facilities.

Despite the heightened tensions, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei underscored Tehran’s commitment to a policy of engagement and cooperation. He framed the upcoming talks as a continuation of discussions held on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.

Iranian media claimed that Tehran has refrained from actions that could complicate negotiations in recent months. However, they accused European powers of taking “unconstructive measures” that have hindered the diplomatic process.