Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
TT
20

Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini

Iran's regime is divided in its response to months of unprecedented protests, wavering between repression and what it views as conciliatory gestures trying to quell the discontent, analysts say.

"The conflicting messages we are getting from the Iranian regime suggest an internal debate on how to deal with ongoing protests," said Nader Hashemi, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver.

"In most authoritarian regimes, there are hawks and doves" who disagree on how repressive the state should be during crises, he said.

The granting of retrials to several death-row protesters, and the release from detention of prominent dissidents, are signs that some seek to take a softer approach, AFP reported.

But a reminder of the hardline tack came Saturday when Iran executed two men for killing a paramilitary member during protest-related unrest.

Demonstrations began after the September 16 death in custody of Kurdish-Iranian Mahsa Amini, 22. She had been arrested by morality police who enforce a strict dress code which requires women to wear a scarf-like covering over their hair and neck.

The protests have escalated into calls for an end to the regime, posing the biggest challenge for the clerics since the 1979 revolution deposed the shah.

Authorities have responded with deadly violence that has left hundreds dead.

Thousands have been arrested and 14 detainees sentenced to hang, many for killing or attacking security force members, according to the judiciary.

The Supreme Court has upheld some of the death sentences and a total of four men have now been executed. The judiciary has also announced retrials for six of the 14.

This reflects a "political calculus", said US-based Iran expert Mehrzad Boroujerdi, co-author of "Post-Revolutionary Iran: A Political Handbook".

"They know that mass executions will bring more people into the streets and further agitate them. On the other hand, they want to send a signal that they are not reticent to execute protesters so that people are intimidated."

In what analysts see as another attempt to calm the situation, two prominent dissidents arrested early during the protests, Majid Tavakoli and Hossein Ronaghi, were freed weeks later. Ronaghi had been on a hunger strike.

The regime is using "everything from pressure release valves to long prison terms and executions. They are experimenting with these as they struggle to formulate a more clearly articulated policy," Boroujerdi said.

Anoush Ehteshami, director of the Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at the UK's Durham University, said the retrials partly reflected mounting foreign and domestic pressure.

"But also within the regime there is division about how to handle this," Ehteshami said, with hardliners on one side and others who see executions as further encouraging resistance.

Retrials and the release of dissidents are "measures of appeasement... to try and throw a bone" to the protesters, he added.

While such measures may appear insignificant, from the perspective of a "securitized, beleaguered regime... they think they are being magnanimous and responding to public pressure".



Attack on Hospital Run by Doctors Without Borders Leaves at Least 4 Dead in South Sudan

A South Sudanese soldier walks around the streets of Juba in a "show of force" ahead of Pope Francis' visit to the country this week in Juba, South Sudan February 2, 2023. REUTERS/Jok Solomun
A South Sudanese soldier walks around the streets of Juba in a "show of force" ahead of Pope Francis' visit to the country this week in Juba, South Sudan February 2, 2023. REUTERS/Jok Solomun
TT
20

Attack on Hospital Run by Doctors Without Borders Leaves at Least 4 Dead in South Sudan

A South Sudanese soldier walks around the streets of Juba in a "show of force" ahead of Pope Francis' visit to the country this week in Juba, South Sudan February 2, 2023. REUTERS/Jok Solomun
A South Sudanese soldier walks around the streets of Juba in a "show of force" ahead of Pope Francis' visit to the country this week in Juba, South Sudan February 2, 2023. REUTERS/Jok Solomun

Doctors Without Borders said Saturday that its facility in a remote part of South Sudan was targeted in an aerial bombardment that resulted in some casualties.

The hospital is located in a northern town known as Old Fangak, some 475 kilometers (295 miles) outside of Juba, the capital.

The medical charity, known by its French initials, MSF, released a statement on X condemning the attack on its hospital, said to be the only source of medical care for 40,000 residents, including many people displaced by flooding.

It called the attack “a clear violation of international law.”

Fangak County Commissioner, Biel Butros Biel, told The Associated Press that at least four people were killed in the aerial attack, including a 9-month-old child. He added that at least 25 people were wounded, though an assessment of the damage was ongoing.

It was not immediately clear why the facility was targeted, apparently by government troops. A spokesman for South Sudan’s military could not be reached for comment.

A spokesperson for MSF said their hospital in Old Fangak was hit by airstrikes shortly after 4 a.m. on Saturday. They spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak to the press.

The attack caused significant damage to the hospital’s pharmacy, destroying all medical supplies. There was no definitive word on casualties.

Additional strikes occurred hours later near the Old Fangak market, causing widespread panic and displacement of civilians, according to several eyewitnesses.

Old Fangak is one of several major towns in Fangak county, an ethnically Nuer part of the country that has been historically associated with the opposition party loyal to Riek Machar, South Sudan’s first vice president, who is now under house arrest for alleged subversion.

The town has been ravaged since 2019 by flooding that has left few options for people to escape the fighting. One eyewitness, Thomas Mot, said that some left by boat, while others fled on foot into flood waters.

The attack on the hospital is the latest escalation in a government-led assault on opposition groups across the country.

Since March, government troops backed by soldiers from Uganda have conducted dozens of airstrikes targeting areas in neighboring Upper Nile State.