Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
TT

Analysts: Iran Regime Divided on How to Tackle Protests

AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini
AP file photo of protests that erupted in Tehran after the death of Mahsa Amini

Iran's regime is divided in its response to months of unprecedented protests, wavering between repression and what it views as conciliatory gestures trying to quell the discontent, analysts say.

"The conflicting messages we are getting from the Iranian regime suggest an internal debate on how to deal with ongoing protests," said Nader Hashemi, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Denver.

"In most authoritarian regimes, there are hawks and doves" who disagree on how repressive the state should be during crises, he said.

The granting of retrials to several death-row protesters, and the release from detention of prominent dissidents, are signs that some seek to take a softer approach, AFP reported.

But a reminder of the hardline tack came Saturday when Iran executed two men for killing a paramilitary member during protest-related unrest.

Demonstrations began after the September 16 death in custody of Kurdish-Iranian Mahsa Amini, 22. She had been arrested by morality police who enforce a strict dress code which requires women to wear a scarf-like covering over their hair and neck.

The protests have escalated into calls for an end to the regime, posing the biggest challenge for the clerics since the 1979 revolution deposed the shah.

Authorities have responded with deadly violence that has left hundreds dead.

Thousands have been arrested and 14 detainees sentenced to hang, many for killing or attacking security force members, according to the judiciary.

The Supreme Court has upheld some of the death sentences and a total of four men have now been executed. The judiciary has also announced retrials for six of the 14.

This reflects a "political calculus", said US-based Iran expert Mehrzad Boroujerdi, co-author of "Post-Revolutionary Iran: A Political Handbook".

"They know that mass executions will bring more people into the streets and further agitate them. On the other hand, they want to send a signal that they are not reticent to execute protesters so that people are intimidated."

In what analysts see as another attempt to calm the situation, two prominent dissidents arrested early during the protests, Majid Tavakoli and Hossein Ronaghi, were freed weeks later. Ronaghi had been on a hunger strike.

The regime is using "everything from pressure release valves to long prison terms and executions. They are experimenting with these as they struggle to formulate a more clearly articulated policy," Boroujerdi said.

Anoush Ehteshami, director of the Institute for Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies at the UK's Durham University, said the retrials partly reflected mounting foreign and domestic pressure.

"But also within the regime there is division about how to handle this," Ehteshami said, with hardliners on one side and others who see executions as further encouraging resistance.

Retrials and the release of dissidents are "measures of appeasement... to try and throw a bone" to the protesters, he added.

While such measures may appear insignificant, from the perspective of a "securitized, beleaguered regime... they think they are being magnanimous and responding to public pressure".



Supporters of Pakistan's Imran Khan Call off Protest

Policemen fire tear gas shells to disperse supporters of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party during a protest to demand the release of former prime minister Imran Khan, in Islamabad on November 26, 2024. (Photo by Aamir QURESHI / AFP)
Policemen fire tear gas shells to disperse supporters of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party during a protest to demand the release of former prime minister Imran Khan, in Islamabad on November 26, 2024. (Photo by Aamir QURESHI / AFP)
TT

Supporters of Pakistan's Imran Khan Call off Protest

Policemen fire tear gas shells to disperse supporters of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party during a protest to demand the release of former prime minister Imran Khan, in Islamabad on November 26, 2024. (Photo by Aamir QURESHI / AFP)
Policemen fire tear gas shells to disperse supporters of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party during a protest to demand the release of former prime minister Imran Khan, in Islamabad on November 26, 2024. (Photo by Aamir QURESHI / AFP)

Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan's party suspended street protests demanding his release from jail after a sweeping midnight raid by security forces in the capital Islamabad in which hundreds of people were arrested, local media reported on Wednesday.
Broadcaster Geo News, citing a Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) statement, said the party had announced a "temporary suspension" of the protest, in which at least six people, including four paramilitary soldiers and two protesters, have been killed.
A PTI spokesperson did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Thousands of protesters had gathered in the center of Islamabad on Tuesday after a convoy, led by Khan's wife Bushra Bibi, broke through several lines of security all the way to the edge of the city's highly fortified red zone.
Geo News and broadcaster ARY both reported that a massive raid was launched by security forces in a pitch-dark central Islamabad, where lights had been turned off and a barrage of teargas was fired. The protest gathering was almost completely dispersed, they reported.
On Wednesday morning, city workers were cleaning up debris and clearing some of the shipping containers that had blocked roads around the capital. The heavily fortified red zone was empty of protesters but several of their vehicles were left behind, including the remains of a truck from which Bushra Bibi had been leading the protests that appeared charred by flames, according to Reuters witnesses.
PTI had planned on staging a sit-in in the red zone until the release of Khan, who has been in jail since August last year.
PTI's president for the city of Peshawar in the party's northern stronghold of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, said the party had called off the protest.
"We will chalk out the new strategy later after proper consultation,” Mohammad Asim told Reuters.
He said that Bushra Bibi as well as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur, a key Khan ally, had returned "safely" to the province from the capital.
Pakistan's benchmark share index jumped more than 4% in intraday trade on Wednesday, recovering losses made on Tuesday when the index closed 3.6% down over the news of political clashes.
"With valuations remaining highly attractive, we expect the positive momentum to continue going forward," said Tahir Abbas, head of research at Arif Habib Limited, adding that the sharp rebound in the market was due to hopes of political stability restoring investor confidence.