Egypt's December Inflation Accelerates to Annual 21.3%

The cleaning tools that are made from feathers are displayed at a shop in the Toulon Quarter of Cairo, Egypt, November 30, 2021. REUTERS/Hayam Adel
The cleaning tools that are made from feathers are displayed at a shop in the Toulon Quarter of Cairo, Egypt, November 30, 2021. REUTERS/Hayam Adel
TT
20

Egypt's December Inflation Accelerates to Annual 21.3%

The cleaning tools that are made from feathers are displayed at a shop in the Toulon Quarter of Cairo, Egypt, November 30, 2021. REUTERS/Hayam Adel
The cleaning tools that are made from feathers are displayed at a shop in the Toulon Quarter of Cairo, Egypt, November 30, 2021. REUTERS/Hayam Adel

Egyptian annual urban consumer inflation in December rose to 21.3% from 18.7% in November, exceeding analyst expectations, data from the statistics agency CAPMAS showed on Tuesday.

The inflation figure was the highest since December 2017, when it hit 21.9%. The price rises followed a currency devaluation in October and restrictions on imports.

The median forecast in a Reuters poll of 15 economists had projected inflation of 20.50%. Five economists also forecast that core inflation would come in at a median 23.6%, up from 21.5% in November.

The central bank allowed the Egyptian pound to depreciate by about 14.5% on Oct. 27 and let its value continue to weaken slowly and incrementally in November and December.

"Food and beverages were up 4.6% month-on-month (adding to the 4.5% in November), impacted mainly by bread and cereals, dairy, vegetables and meat," said Allen Sandeep of Naeem Brokerage.

This goes somewhat towards absorbing a 25% devaluation in late October but portends more inflation to come, Sandeep said.

"Now combined monthly inflation has risen by around 7% over three months. This is close to a 30% pass through to the urban CPI index. With the new round of devaluation ongoing, which we expect to be roughly 15%, we can expect annual CPI to touch 25% by February."

Egypt's surging prices will add to pressure on the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee to raise interest rates when it next meets on Feb. 2.



Oil Climbs $1 as Price Drop Triggers Buying; Oversupply Worries Weigh

FILE PHOTO: An oil pumpjack operates near Williston, North Dakota January 23, 2015. REUTERS/Andrew Cullen/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil pumpjack operates near Williston, North Dakota January 23, 2015. REUTERS/Andrew Cullen/File Photo
TT
20

Oil Climbs $1 as Price Drop Triggers Buying; Oversupply Worries Weigh

FILE PHOTO: An oil pumpjack operates near Williston, North Dakota January 23, 2015. REUTERS/Andrew Cullen/File Photo
FILE PHOTO: An oil pumpjack operates near Williston, North Dakota January 23, 2015. REUTERS/Andrew Cullen/File Photo

Oil gained more than $1 per barrel on Tuesday, rebounding on technical factors and bargain hunting after a decision by OPEC+ to boost output sent prices down the previous session, although concerns about the market surplus outlook persisted.

Brent crude futures rose $1.15 to $61.38 a barrel by 0623 GMT, the first time gain after six consecutive declines, while US West Texas Intermediate crude added $1.11 to $58.24 a barrel.

Both benchmarks had settled at their lowest since February 2021 on Monday, driven by an OPEC+ decision over the weekend to further speed up oil production hikes for a second consecutive month.

"Today’s slight rebound in oil prices appears more technical than fundamental," said Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG. "Persistent headwinds including a pivotal shift in OPEC+ production strategy, uncertain demand amid US tariff risks, and price forecast downgrades are continuing to weigh on the broader price movement."

Driven by expectations that production will exceed consumption, oil has lost over 10% in six straight sessions and dipped over 20% since April when US President Donald Trump's tariff shocks prompted increased bets on a slowdown in the global economy.

The return of Chinese market participants after a five-day public holiday since May 1 was seen supporting prices on Tuesday.

"China also reopened today, and being the largest importer, buyers would have likely jumped to secure oil at current low levels," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.

Also lending some support was data showing a pick-up in services sector's growth in the US, the world's major oil consumer, as orders increased.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday its nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) increased to 51.6 last month from 50.8 in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI dipping to 50.2.

The US Federal Reserve will likely leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday as tariffs roil the economic outlook.

Barclays lowered its Brent crude forecast on Monday by $4 to $70 a barrel for 2025 and set its 2026 estimate at $62 a barrel, citing "a rocky road ahead for fundamentals" amid escalating trade tensions and OPEC+'s pivot in its production strategy.

Goldman Sachs also lowered its oil price forecast on Monday by $2-3 per barrel, as they now expect another 400,000 barrels per day production increase by OPEC+ in July.