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'Top Gun' among Blockbuster Sequels Targeting Oscar Noms

Tom Cruise's long-awaited 'Top Gun' sequel is the most likely crowd-pleaser to earn a nomination for the best picture Oscar -- Hollywood's most coveted prize. Robyn Beck / AFP/File
Tom Cruise's long-awaited 'Top Gun' sequel is the most likely crowd-pleaser to earn a nomination for the best picture Oscar -- Hollywood's most coveted prize. Robyn Beck / AFP/File
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'Top Gun' among Blockbuster Sequels Targeting Oscar Noms

Tom Cruise's long-awaited 'Top Gun' sequel is the most likely crowd-pleaser to earn a nomination for the best picture Oscar -- Hollywood's most coveted prize. Robyn Beck / AFP/File
Tom Cruise's long-awaited 'Top Gun' sequel is the most likely crowd-pleaser to earn a nomination for the best picture Oscar -- Hollywood's most coveted prize. Robyn Beck / AFP/File

The Oscar nominations for a year in which the big-screen box office finally bounced back from the pandemic will be unveiled Tuesday, with Academy voters expected to reward blockbusters such as "Top Gun: Maverick" for helping to save movie theaters.

Tom Cruise's long-awaited sequel to his huge 1986 hit is the most likely crowd-pleaser to make the cut for best picture -- Hollywood's most coveted prize -- but other popular follow-ups including "Avatar: The Way of Water" and "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever" could also get a nod, AFP said.

They will compete with a wide range of movies, from word-of-mouth sci-fi smash "Everything Everywhere All At Once" to Steven Spielberg's quasi-memoir "The Fabelmans," which wowed many critics but didn't persuade theatergoers to pay up.

Other films firmly on the radar of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences voters are Irish black comedy "The Banshees of Inisherin," Baz Luhrmann's rock-and-roll biopic "Elvis," and Cate Blanchett's latest tour-de-force "Tar."

"This year is one of the more unknown years," said Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis.

"I probably have put more effort into talking to Academy members to try to gauge their interest and see where the race is headed than in any other year in my life," he told AFP.

"And I probably know the least I've ever known in my career."

A major complicating factor for Oscars prognosticators is the recent massive growth in the number of international Academy voters.

Those members have been credited with surprises such as South Korea's "Parasite" winning best picture in 2020, and Japan's "Drive My Car" being nominated last year.

"We've had international features get in the past few years, and I think that streak could continue," said Davis.

Germany's World War I drama "All Quiet on the Western Front" has built major momentum, scooping a massive 14 nods last week for Britain's BAFTAs.

Another best picture contender could be "RRR," an unapologetically over-the-top Indian action film that has built grassroots support to become a hugely popular favorite in Hollywood.

"RRR" cannot be nominated for best international feature, however, as India opted instead to submit "Last Film Show" as the country's official pick for that category.

"No shade to the movie they did choose, which is actually very good, but 'RRR' was a slam dunk," said Davis.

- Acting races -
In the individual categories, Brendan Fraser ("The Whale"), Colin Farrell ("The Banshees of Inisherin") and Austin Butler ("Elvis") are clear favorites to score best actor nominations.

Double Oscar-winner Blanchett appears to be locked in a two-way battle atop the best actress section with Michelle Yeoh, who could make history with "Everything Everywhere."

"She's going be the second Asian woman ever nominated for lead actress in 95 years" of the Oscars, said Davis.

Her co-star Ke Huy Quan -- who appeared as a child in "Indiana Jones and The Temple of Doom" almost four decades ago -- is likely to cement a remarkable comeback with a nod for best supporting actor.

The best supporting actress category is expected to feature Angela Bassett, who would become the first star in a Marvel superhero movie to ever earn an Oscar acting nomination with "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever."

Spielberg is among those predicted to make the best director shortlist.

- 'Saved movies' -
Actors Riz Ahmed ("Sound of Metal") and Allison Williams ("Girls") will unveil the nominations Tuesday from Los Angeles starting at 5:30 am (1330 GMT).

Television ratings for award shows including the Oscars have trended downwards, as Academy voters in recent years have veered toward honoring lesser-known indie hits like "Nomadland" and "CODA."

Many in the industry will be hoping for a healthy spread of nominations among 2022's crowd-pleasing sequels, which were sorely needed as giants such as Cineworld, the world's second biggest cinema chain, filed for bankruptcy protection.

James Cameron's sci-fi epic "Avatar: The Way of Water" sailed past the $2 billion mark globally last weekend.

"Top Gun: Maverick," which came out in May during highly uncertain times for movie theaters, earned around $1.5 billion.

"That's the one that feels like it could actually win best picture," said Davis.

"What better story the day after the Oscars air, than that the movie that saved movies was named the best movie? That's a good story to tell."

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So You Saw ‘Conclave’ the Movie. Here’s What It Got Right – And Wrong – About Real-Life Conclaves

This image released by Focus Features shows Ralph Fiennes, left, and Stanley Tucci in a scene from "Conclave." (Focus Features via AP)
This image released by Focus Features shows Ralph Fiennes, left, and Stanley Tucci in a scene from "Conclave." (Focus Features via AP)
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So You Saw ‘Conclave’ the Movie. Here’s What It Got Right – And Wrong – About Real-Life Conclaves

This image released by Focus Features shows Ralph Fiennes, left, and Stanley Tucci in a scene from "Conclave." (Focus Features via AP)
This image released by Focus Features shows Ralph Fiennes, left, and Stanley Tucci in a scene from "Conclave." (Focus Features via AP)

Speculation surrounding a conclave to elect a pope is a time-honored tradition. But for the impending conclave following the death of Pope Francis, the ranks of armchair Vatican experts have swelled thanks to Hollywood.

“Conclave” the film, a moody 2024 political thriller, introduced many laypeople to the ancient selection process with its arcane rules and grand ceremony, albeit with a silver screen twist packed full of palace intrigue and surprise.

Though it has its critics, the film treats the gravity of a papal election with respect and accurately portrays many rituals and contemporary problems facing today’s Catholic Church. But Vatican experts warn the movie doesn’t get everything right.

Here's a look at what “Conclave” does get right — and wrong — about conclaves. (Spoilers ahead.)

Scenery and aesthetics The movie excels at re-creating the look and feel of a conclave.

“The film gets a lot right. They tried to reproduce the mise-en-scene of the Vatican accurately,” William Cavanaugh, a Catholic studies professor at DePaul University in Chicago, said in an email. “They show that a lot of the drama is around the preconclave conversations among cardinals.”

It’s not a perfect re-creation, according to the Rev. Thomas Reese, a senior analyst with the Religion News Service and a Vatican expert.

He called the movie’s production values “marvelous,” but noted slight discrepancies in the cardinals' dress.

“The red in the cardinals’ garments was a deep red, while the reality is more orange. Frankly, I like the Hollywood version better,” Reese, a Jesuit priest who wrote “Inside the Vatican: The Politics and Organization of the Catholic Church,” said in an email.

Papal protocols The movie aligns with real-life expectations for a quick conclave, said Massimo Faggioli, a historical theology professor at Villanova University in Pennsylvania.

“A long conclave would send the message of a Church divided and possibly on the verge of a schism. The history of the conclaves in the last century is really a story of short conclaves,” he said via email.

Reese pointed out other discrepancies. While the voting process was depicted accurately, he said, the ballots are burned not after each vote, but after each session, which is typically two votes.

Holy plot holes There are a few particularly egregious errors that, if corrected, would lead to a very different movie.

A key character in the film, the archbishop of Kabul, Afghanistan, arrives just before the conclave with paperwork declaring the late pope had made him a cardinal "in pectore" — “in secret” — allowing him to vote for the next pope.

“The biggest mistake in the movie was the admission of a cardinal in pectore into the conclave,” said Reese. “If the name is not announced publicly by the pope in the presence of the College of Cardinals, he has no right to attend a conclave.”

Cavanaugh agreed and noted that while the movie's twist about the Kabul archbishop was far-fetched, it does point to a certain truth about conclaves.

“The cardinals do not always know who they’re getting when they elect a pope,” he said. “If the cardinals knew how (Jorge Mario) Bergoglio would be as Pope Francis, many of them wouldn’t have voted for him. Pius IX was elected as a liberal and turned into an archconservative. John XXIII was supposed to be a jolly caretaker pope, and he unleashed Vatican II,” a series of modernizing reforms.

Another of the movie's more outlandish storylines involves the dean of the College of Cardinals breaking the seal of the confessional by revealing to another cardinal what a nun confessed to him, said Reese.

“He committed a mortal sin and would be automatically excommunicated. Such an action would be egregiously wrong,” Reese said.

In addition to that, a cardinal paying for votes, as shown in the film, is unheard of in modern times, said Cavanaugh, and the politicking is exaggerated.

And so are the politics.

The movie errs in making cardinals into either liberal or conservative champions, said Kurt Martens, professor of canon law at the Catholic University of America in Washington.

“Those labels don’t help us,” he said because cardinals are very cautious in expressing their opinions and “even someone we think is a liberal cardinal is pretty conservative by secular standards.”

And he added that even in an unusually large conclave like this year’s, the rule requiring the next pope wins at least a two-thirds majority of the vote ensures that “whatever we call extreme” likely won’t get enough votes.