US Envoy: Iran Is Very Close to Producing Nuclear Weapon

US envoy to Iran, Robert Malley, in Rome in December. (File photo: AP)
US envoy to Iran, Robert Malley, in Rome in December. (File photo: AP)
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US Envoy: Iran Is Very Close to Producing Nuclear Weapon

US envoy to Iran, Robert Malley, in Rome in December. (File photo: AP)
US envoy to Iran, Robert Malley, in Rome in December. (File photo: AP)

US envoy to Iran Robert Malley confirmed that Tehran is "very, very close" to obtaining sufficient quantities of enriched uranium to produce a nuclear weapon.

However, he refused to declare the end of diplomacy in the efforts of President Joe Biden's administration to return to the nuclear agreement, warning that the military option is the "last resort" although it is "very difficult and very dangerous."

In an interview with the BBC's HARDtalk program, Malley said that "diplomacy never ends" when it comes to Iran, even if accompanied by "sanctions, pressure, countering what they are doing in the region, and also mobilizing the international community" and in conjunction with "the indirect negotiations with Iran."

Malley has been a key figure in US-Middle East policymaking under three Democrat administrations for Presidents Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, and now Biden.

He recalled that US officials have announced publicly they would continue the indirect talks but "will not hesitate to take other steps to stop Iran's aggressive behavior or to curb its nuclear program."

He added that the issue "is not an either-or; it is not diplomacy or the rest. Everything goes hand in hand."

The US official avoided saying whether Iran now poses a greater threat to US national security than it was when Biden assumed the presidency nearly two years ago, but he admitted that "we already inherited a very dangerous situation because of the reckless decision by the prior administration to withdraw from the deal that was working."

Malley acknowledged that "Iran's nuclear program has advanced. No doubt about it. No question."

The US, its European allies, and others are "far more united today than they were" under former US President Donald Trump and are united more than ever, and this "puts us in a much stronger position to confront Iran."

"Things have gotten worse. Iran has developed its nuclear program in ways that are very dangerous, but we are more united, and we have a stronger position from which to counter Iran."

When asked if he confirmed a previous statement by Biden in which he said the nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), "is dead," Malley replied: "I wasn't hired to write obituaries."

However, he revealed that Iran had "turned down multiple opportunities to end this crisis and to get back into the deal. [...] They are the ones who turned their backs on it."

Moreover, the envoy distinguished between Iranians being "very, very close" to having enough weapons-grade uranium for a bomb and close enough to obtaining a bomb, which he described as a different question.

He declared that Iran has not resumed its "weaponization program and efforts to acquire a weapon," adding that if they did, "the circumstances would change."

"We are not comfortable with them being as close as they are today, and that's why we're both pursuing a diplomatic path," said Malley, recalling that, "President Biden said that if that option fails, all other options will be on the table," including the military option which he described as "far from our preference" and a "last resort."

He stressed that the military option is not the US' "first option" because it is "a very difficult option. It's a very dangerous option," adding that Biden would only do it if necessary.

Asked about Israel, Malley said Tel Aviv has its interests and perception of Iran, adding: "We did not always agree on the tactics. I think we agree on the objective, which is to make sure that Iran can't acquire a nuclear weapon."

Malley denied that the current US-Israeli military maneuvers aim to prepare for a military plan for an attack against Iran.

Rather, they are designed to project Washington's support to Israel and ensure that the "US and Israel together can work to defend their common interests," [...] regardless of what is happening in Ukraine and what is happening in the Russian theater, in the European theater," he explained.

The envoy renewed US support for human rights and basic freedoms in Iran, asserting that it continues to counter Tehran's support for Russia in the war against Ukraine and its threats against American citizens.

Furthermore, Malley stressed that Washington was not seeking regime change in Iran, clarifying that "our task is to stand up for the Iranian people."



Death Toll from Russian Strikes in Ukraine Rises to 12

Ukrainian service members of the 260th Zaporizhzhia Separate Territorial Defence Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces load a 152-mm shell for a D‑20 howitzer before firing towards Russian troops at a frontline position, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, April 9, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer
Ukrainian service members of the 260th Zaporizhzhia Separate Territorial Defence Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces load a 152-mm shell for a D‑20 howitzer before firing towards Russian troops at a frontline position, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, April 9, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer
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Death Toll from Russian Strikes in Ukraine Rises to 12

Ukrainian service members of the 260th Zaporizhzhia Separate Territorial Defence Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces load a 152-mm shell for a D‑20 howitzer before firing towards Russian troops at a frontline position, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, April 9, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer
Ukrainian service members of the 260th Zaporizhzhia Separate Territorial Defence Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces load a 152-mm shell for a D‑20 howitzer before firing towards Russian troops at a frontline position, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine, in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, April 9, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer

Russian strikes killed at least 12 people in Ukraine, local authorities said on Thursday, after Moscow pummeled its neighbor in overnight attacks.

Missile and drone attacks on the southern port city of Odesa killed six people, the head of the city's military administration Sergiy Lysak wrote on Telegram.

Strikes on the capital Kyiv killed at least four people, including a 12-year-old, the State Emergency Service of Ukraine said, while another two people died in the central city of Dnipro, according to Oleksandr Ganzha, head of the regional administration.

Moscow has fired hundreds of drones on its neighbor almost nightly since the beginning of the four-year war, with Kyiv regularly carrying out strikes within Russia in response to its attacks, AFP said.

Russia's overnight attack on Ukraine triggered a missile alert in the capital Kyiv, where the head of the capital's military administration Tymur Tkachenko warned residents to shelter until the warning was lifted.

In Kyiv, rescuers pulled a child from the rubble of a residential building that collapsed in the Podilsky district, Klitschko said.

The attack on the capital wounded at least 10 people, including several medics, he said.

A blaze broke out at a building in the capital's Obolonsky district where missile debris fell, and cars were on fire, he added.

A drone strike on Ukraine's northeastern city of Kharkiv wounded a 77-year-old woman and a 66-year-old man, the head of the regional military administration Oleg Synegubov said on Telegram.

Five people were wounded in an attack in the southern port city of Odesa, the head of the city's military administration Sergiy Lysak said on Telegram.


Pakistani Army Chief Visits Tehran in Bid to Broker Renewed Talks between US and Iran

Image published by the Iranian Foreign Ministry of Araghchi receiving Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir in Tehran on Wednesday.
Image published by the Iranian Foreign Ministry of Araghchi receiving Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir in Tehran on Wednesday.
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Pakistani Army Chief Visits Tehran in Bid to Broker Renewed Talks between US and Iran

Image published by the Iranian Foreign Ministry of Araghchi receiving Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir in Tehran on Wednesday.
Image published by the Iranian Foreign Ministry of Araghchi receiving Pakistani Army Chief Asim Munir in Tehran on Wednesday.

Pakistan’s army chief is set to meet with Iranian officials in Tehran on Thursday in a bid to ease tensions in the Middle East and arrange a second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran after almost seven weeks of war.

The White House said any further talks would likely take place in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad, though no decision had been made on whether to resume negotiations.

The US naval blockade of Iranian ports continued as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration would ramp up economic pain on Iran with new economic sanctions on countries doing business with it, calling the move the “financial equivalent” of a bombing campaign.

Pakistan has emerged as a key mediator after it hosted direct talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad that authorities said helped narrow differences between the two sides. Mediators are seeking a new round before the ceasefire expires next week.

Meanwhile, Trump wrote late Wednesday on Truth Social that leaders from Israel and Lebanon would speak the next day in a renewed effort to broker a ceasefire after the countries' first direct talks in decades ended the previous day in Washington without a deal. It was not clear what leaders Trump was referring to. The Israeli prime minister’s office did not immediately respond for comment, which was posted before dawn in Israel and Lebanon.

The war has jolted markets and rattled the global economy as shipping has been cut off and airstrikes have torn through military and civilian infrastructure across the region. Oil prices have fallen amid hopes for an end to fighting, and US stocks on Wednesday surpassed records set in January.

Officials say US and Iran are making progress

Even as the US blockade on Iranian ports and renewed Iranian threats strained the ceasefire agreement, regional officials reported progress, telling The Associated Press the United States and Iran had an “in principle agreement” to extend it to allow for more diplomacy. They spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive negotiations.

Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, took part in a preliminary meeting Wednesday with Asim Munir, Pakistan's army chief of staff, Iranian state media reported.

But even as mediators worked for peace, tensions simmered.

The commander of Iran’s joint military command, Ali Abdollahi, threatened to halt trade in the region if the US does not lift its naval blockade, and a newly-appointed military adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei said he doesn’t support extending the ceasefire.

Mediators seek compromise on sticking points

Mediators are pushing for a compromise on three main sticking points that derailed direct talks last weekend — Iran’s nuclear program, the Strait of Hormuz and compensation for wartime damages, according to a regional official involved in the mediation efforts.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said Iran is open to discussing the type and level of its uranium enrichment, but his country “based on its needs, must be able to continue enrichment,” Iranian state media reported.

The fighting has killed at least 3,000 people in Iran, more than 2,100 in Lebanon, 23 in Israel and more than a dozen in Gulf Arab states. Thirteen US service members have also been killed.

China calls for Strait of Hormuz to reopen

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the window of peace was opening during a phone call with his Iranian counterpart, who briefed him on the latest developments in Iran-US negotiations and Tehran’s considerations on the next step, according to a statement from China’s foreign ministry late Wednesday.

Wang told Araghchi that the situation has reached a critical juncture between war and peace, and said Iran’s sovereignty, security, and legitimate rights should be respected as a littoral state of the Strait of Hormuz, while freedom of navigation and safety through the strait should be ensured.

Since the war began, Iran has curtailed maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which a fifth of global oil transited through in peacetime. Tehran’s effective closure of the strait sent oil prices skyrocketing, raising the cost of fuel, food and other basic goods far beyond the Middle East, and the US has responded with a blockade on Iranian shipping.

US Central Command said Wednesday that no ships had made it past the blockade since it was imposed two days earlier, while 10 merchant vessels complied with direction from US forces to turn around and reenter Iranian waters.

The blockade is intended to pressure Iran, which has exported millions of barrels of oil, mostly to Asia, since the war began Feb. 28. Much of it has likely been carried by so-called dark transits that evade sanctions and oversight, providing cash that’s been vital to keeping Iran running.

Strikes continue in Lebanon after Washington talks

Meanwhile, Israel pressed ahead with its aerial and ground war in Lebanon. The country's National News Agency reported airstrikes and artillery shelling throughout southern Lebanon on Wednesday, including near Bint Jbeil, where Israeli forces have encircled Hezbollah fighters.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israeli troops were about to “eliminate this great stronghold of Hezbollah” and would continue expanding control of areas in southern Lebanon.

Netanyahu said negotiations are continuing, with disarming Hezbollah a key goal.

The Lebanese Health Ministry said Israel struck three teams of paramedics Wednesday in southern Lebanon, first hitting one team and then two more that rushed to help. The attacks killed three paramedics and wounded six others, the ministry said.

The Israeli military did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Israel and Lebanon have technically been at war since Israel was established in 1948, and Lebanon remains deeply divided over diplomatic engagement with Israel.


Mounting Pressure on Iran Revives the Specter of the 2000 Aden Attack

US Navy aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush
US Navy aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush
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Mounting Pressure on Iran Revives the Specter of the 2000 Aden Attack

US Navy aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush
US Navy aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush

US author Anne-Marie Slaughter argues in The Chessboard and the Web: Strategies of Connection in a Networked World that the world no longer operates or interacts according to the logic of a traditional chessboard.

The old model was linear and two-dimensional, centered on a single objective: toppling the king by controlling territory.

That logic no longer defines 21st-century conflict. Today’s world operates across overlapping, interlocking layers that interact and often collide simultaneously, within a continuously evolving network that includes military, economic, political, alliance, and informational dimensions.

As this network evolves, it generates both solutions and complications so rapidly that they outpace the ability of leadership to make timely decisions. Improvisation comes to dominate decision-making, errors multiply and accumulate, feeding back into the system and further deepening its complexity.

On the escalation ladder

Escalation depends on strategic flexibility and the tools available. In practical terms, the greater the flexibility, the greater the ability of actors to climb the escalation ladder, from low-intensity conflict to higher levels, until reaching a peak where one side yields, either on the battlefield or at the negotiating table.

But this climb is inherently a trap. Each step builds on the last. As these steps accumulate over time, the cost compounds, making it increasingly difficult to step back without incurring significant losses.

The US blockade

This is not the first time the US Navy has imposed a maritime blockade. The most notable case was Cuba in the 1960s during the Cuban Missile Crisis, labeled a “quarantine,” a term deliberately used to indicate a measure short of full wartime blockade. Cuba’s geography made it relatively easy to encircle.

A similar approach was later applied to Venezuela. Today, the focus has shifted to Iranian ports, both inside and outside the Gulf.

Direct comparisons are limited by differing contexts. Still, one constant remains: the US Navy possesses the capability to enforce such blockades, particularly given its dominance over global seas and oceans.

In Cuba, Soviet missiles targeted major US cities and the world was divided between two superpowers. In Venezuela, President Donald Trump invoked the Monroe Doctrine and implemented a national security strategy prioritizing the Western Hemisphere and America’s immediate sphere.

The Strait of Hormuz, however, is fundamentally different. Other waterways can be bypassed; Hormuz cannot. It is a closed corridor through which oil, gas, petrochemicals, helium, fertilizers, and other critical goods must pass. There is no alternative route; all shipments must transit Hormuz in both directions.

Iran’s strategy

Since the Shah’s era, aligned with the Nixon Doctrine, Tehran has pursued control over Gulf waters and influence over the Strait of Hormuz. The continued occupation of the UAE islands of Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa since the 1970s underscores this long-standing strategic objective.

More than 30 islands are scattered across the Gulf’s deep waters, precisely along the routes used by oil tankers that require significant depth to pass safely. If linked together as part of a military-security network, they reveal long-term planning for scenarios such as the current one.

Iran’s naval doctrine relies on both the Revolutionary Guards and the regular navy, employing small submarines, torpedoes, fast attack boats, naval mines, drones, and ballistic missiles.

At its core lies an anti-access strategy designed to deny adversaries freedom of movement in Gulf waters.

Centers of gravity

Qeshm Island is critical for controlling access to the Strait of Hormuz. Kharg Island follows, serving as the hub for more than 80 percent of Iran’s oil exports, supplied by the oil fields of Khuzestan.

Beyond the islands, the South Pars gas field in Bushehr province is central to Iran’s energy system, providing more than 70 percent of the country’s domestic electricity needs.

These key sites have already been targeted during the conflict by US or Israeli airpower. To expand the scope of escalation and increase pressure, Trump deployed additional forces, including Marine units and elements of the 82nd Airborne Division, aimed at broadening military options and forcing Iran to soften its negotiating position. After talks in Pakistan failed, he moved to announce the blockade.

The current US approach

By declaring the blockade, Trump effectively altered the existing rules of engagement in the Gulf, imposing an asymmetric approach that avoids Iran’s strengths and prevents it from dictating the battlefield dynamics.

Instead, the US leverages distance, operating from the Arabian Sea, along with its technological superiority and strategic flexibility.

This effectively turns Iran’s own strategy against it. What once constrained US freedom of movement inside the Gulf is now being used to impose external pressure on Iran from the Arabian Sea.

If successful, the strategy could deprive Iran, according to The Wall Street Journal, of roughly $435 million per day, or $13 billion per month, while avoiding the costs of direct military action such as seizing islands like Kharg.

It would also confine Iran’s asymmetric capabilities within the Gulf and strip it of its most effective operational tools.

The central question now is how Iran will respond. How will it adapt its strategy in the face of this pressure? Will escalation continue? And could that escalation take the form of a maritime attack similar to the 2000 strike on the US destroyer USS Cole near Aden?