Moody's Drops Egypt's Rating to B3

Egyptians pass in front of an exchange office with a banner of foreign currencies (AP)
Egyptians pass in front of an exchange office with a banner of foreign currencies (AP)
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Moody's Drops Egypt's Rating to B3

Egyptians pass in front of an exchange office with a banner of foreign currencies (AP)
Egyptians pass in front of an exchange office with a banner of foreign currencies (AP)

Egypt's dollar-denominated government bonds fell after Moody's cut the country's credit rating from B2 to B3 late Tuesday.

The agency changed its outlook for Egypt to be stable from negative.

Egypt has continued to face a shortage of foreign exchange, despite allowing the Egyptian pound to depreciate sharply in the past few months.

It is expected that the country's headline inflation will accelerate further in January after surging to its highest level in five years last December, according to a Reuters poll.

The bonds dropped as much as 1.2 cents in the dollar, with the 2029 maturity falling the most to 81.233 cents at 08.45 GMT, according to Tradeweb data.

Egypt's net foreign reserves rose to $34.224 billion in January from $34.003 billion in December, according to the Central Bank.

On Monday, Egypt sold $1.06 billion in one-year dollar T-bills in an auction at an average yield of 4.9%, the central bank said.

Meanwhile, the Egyptian Ministry of Finance issued a statement responding to Moody's concerns.

Finance Minister Mohamed Maait confirmed that the government dealt positively with the concerns contained in Moody's report, despite integrated measures, policies, and measures taken by the government.

The minister pointed out that Standard & Poor's fixed Egypt's credit rating with a stable future outlook, especially in light of the commitment to the economic reform supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with an agreement that extends to 48 months.

It would allow for economic growth prospects during the coming period and enhance the ability to obtain adequate financing to meet the country's external needs.

Maait explained that Egypt is implementing a national program for economic reform to ensure stable economic conditions, maintain financial discipline, and increase the competitiveness of the Egyptian economy.

The program complements what has been achieved in the past years, including the fiscal year 21-22, where the total deficit reached 6.1 percent of GDP, down from 6.8 percent in the year 20-21, and a primary surplus for the fifth year in a row amounted to 1.3 percent of GDP, in the fiscal year 21-22.

Moody's report indicates the possibility of raising Egypt's credit rating through the Egyptian state's implementation of reforms related to enhancing the economy's competitiveness and foreign direct investment flows.



Saudi Non-Oil Exports Hit Two-Year High

The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
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Saudi Non-Oil Exports Hit Two-Year High

The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)
The King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, eastern Saudi Arabia. (“Mawani” port authority)

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil exports soared to a two-year high in May, reaching SAR 28.89 billion (USD 7.70 billion), marking an 8.2% year-on-year increase compared to May 2023.

On a monthly basis, non-oil exports surged by 26.93% from April.

This growth contributed to Saudi Arabia’s trade surplus, which recorded a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, reaching SAR 34.5 billion (USD 9.1 billion) in May, following 18 months of decline.

The enhancement of the non-oil private sector remains a key focus for Saudi Arabia as it continues its efforts to diversify its economy and reduce reliance on oil revenues.

In 2023, non-oil activities in Saudi Arabia contributed 50% to the country’s real GDP, the highest level ever recorded, according to the Ministry of Economy and Planning’s analysis of data from the General Authority for Statistics.

Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan emphasized at the “Future Investment Initiative” in October that the Kingdom is now prioritizing the development of the non-oil sector over GDP figures, in line with its Vision 2030 economic diversification plan.

A report by Moody’s highlighted Saudi Arabia’s extensive efforts to transform its economic structure, reduce dependency on oil, and boost non-oil sectors such as industry, tourism, and real estate.

The Saudi General Authority for Statistics’ monthly report on international trade noted a 5.8% growth in merchandise exports in May compared to the same period last year, driven by a 4.9% increase in oil exports, which totaled SAR 75.9 billion in May 2024.

The change reflects movements in global oil prices, while production levels remained steady at under 9 million barrels per day since the OPEC+ alliance began a voluntary reduction in crude supply to maintain prices. Production is set to gradually increase starting in early October.

On a monthly basis, merchandise exports rose by 3.3% from April to May, supported by a 26.9% increase in non-oil exports. This rise was bolstered by a surge in re-exports, which reached SAR 10.2 billion, the highest level for this category since 2017.

The share of oil exports in total exports declined to 72.4% in May from 73% in the same month last year.

Moreover, the value of re-exported goods increased by 33.9% during the same period.