New Recruits to Extremist Groups Expected to Surge in Africa

Armed individuals including children from terrorist al-Shabab group in northern Somalia. (AP)
Armed individuals including children from terrorist al-Shabab group in northern Somalia. (AP)
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New Recruits to Extremist Groups Expected to Surge in Africa

Armed individuals including children from terrorist al-Shabab group in northern Somalia. (AP)
Armed individuals including children from terrorist al-Shabab group in northern Somalia. (AP)

More people are joining terrorist groups in Africa, which draws questions on its reasons, said a new report by the UN's international development agency.

The report underscored the importance of economic factors as drivers of recruitment.

Meanwhile, experts expected recruitment to increase as the African governments and international powers fail to find successful approaches to reduce poverty, unemployment, and ethnic marginalization in the continent.

The report monitored a 57 percent decrease from the 2017 findings in the number of people who join extremist groups for religious reasons.

A significant increase of 92 percent of new recruits to extremist groups are joining for better livelihoods compared to the motivations of those interviewed in a previous report released in 2017, according to the UNDP report released on Tuesday. 

“A striking 71 percent” of those who joined the extremist groups were affected by “human rights abuse, often conducted by state security forces”.

The report draws from interviews with nearly 2,200 different people in eight countries: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Somalia, and Sudan.

More than 1,000 of those interviewees are former members of violent extremist groups.

At least 4,155 attacks across Africa were documented since 2017, said the report. In these attacks, 18,417 deaths were recorded in the continent with Somalia accounting for the largest number of fatalities.

The surge of extremism in Africa “threatens to reverse hard-won development gains for generations to come”, UNDP Administrator Achim Steiner said.

“Security-driven counter-terrorism responses are often costly and minimally effective, yet investments in preventive approaches to violent extremism are woefully inadequate,” he added.

“The social contract between states and citizens must be reinvigorated to tackle root causes of violent extremism,” Steiner continued.

Terrorist groups massively exploit poverty, unemployment, and ethnic marginalization, and they have recruited thousands in Africa, according to Ahmed Sultan, an Egyptian expert specialized in extremist groups' affairs.

Sultan told Asharq Al-Awsat that the fragility of most African economies makes the continent a hotbed for terrorist groups especially as the economic conditions worsen as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war. He expected more recruitments.

Mohamed El Amine Ould Dah, an expert on African Sahel affairs, stated that the major powers are preoccupied with their geopolitical conflicts and have no interest in radically fighting terrorism in the continent because “this requires billions of dollars”.

Ould Dah told Asharq Al-Awsat that unemployment in the Sahel pushes thousands of youths to join terrorist groups. Other factors are oppression and ethnic marginalization practiced by the authorities.



Russia Advances in Ukraine at Fastest Monthly Pace Since Start of War, Analysts Say

A police officer drives a vehicle past burning trees during an evacuation of civilians from the outskirts of the Kurakhove town, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 16, 2024. (Reuters)
A police officer drives a vehicle past burning trees during an evacuation of civilians from the outskirts of the Kurakhove town, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 16, 2024. (Reuters)
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Russia Advances in Ukraine at Fastest Monthly Pace Since Start of War, Analysts Say

A police officer drives a vehicle past burning trees during an evacuation of civilians from the outskirts of the Kurakhove town, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 16, 2024. (Reuters)
A police officer drives a vehicle past burning trees during an evacuation of civilians from the outskirts of the Kurakhove town, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine September 16, 2024. (Reuters)

Russian forces are advancing in Ukraine at the fastest rate since the early days of the 2022 invasion, taking an area half the size of Greater London over the past month, analysts and war bloggers say.

The war is entering what some Russian and Western officials say could be its most dangerous phase after Moscow's forces made some of their biggest territorial gains and the United States allowed Kyiv to strike back with US missiles.

"Russia has set new weekly and monthly records for the size of the occupied territory in Ukraine," independent Russian news group Agentstvo said in a report.

The Russian army captured almost 235 sq km (91 sq miles) in Ukraine over the past week, a weekly record for 2024, it said.

Russian forces had taken 600 sq km (232 sq miles) in November, it added, citing data from DeepState, a group with close links to the Ukrainian army that studies combat footage and provides frontline maps.

Russia began advancing faster in eastern Ukraine in July just as Ukrainian forces carved out a sliver of its western region of Kursk. Since then, the Russian advance has accelerated, according to open source maps.

Russia's forces are moving into the town of Kurakhove, a stepping stone towards the logistical hub of Pokrovsk in Donetsk, and have been exploiting the vulnerabilities of Kyiv troops along the frontline, analysts said.

"Russian forces recently have been advancing at a significantly quicker rate than they did in the entirety of 2023," analysts at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in a report.

The General Staff of Ukraine's armed forces said in its Monday update that 45 battles of varying intensity were raging along the Kurakhove part of the frontline that evening.

The Institute for the Study of War report and pro-Russian military bloggers say Russian troops are in Kurakhove. Deep State said on its Telegram messaging app on Monday that Russian forces are near Kurakhove.

"Russian forces' advances in southeastern Ukraine are largely the result of the discovery and tactical exploitation of vulnerabilities in Ukraine's lines," Institute analysts said in their report.

Russia says it will achieve all of its aims in Ukraine no matter what the West says or does.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has repeatedly said peace cannot be established until all Russian forces are expelled and all territory captured by Moscow, including Crimea, is returned.

But outnumbered by Russian troops, the Ukrainian military is struggling to recruit soldiers and provide equipment to new units.

Zelenskiy has said he believed Russian President Vladimir Putin's main objectives were to occupy the entire Donbas, spanning the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, and oust Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region, parts of which they have controlled since August.