Japan’s Earthquake Recovery Offers Hard Lessons for Türkiye

Ships washed away by tsunami sit on the land near a port in Kesennuma, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan, on March 13, 2011, after Japan's biggest recorded earthquake hit its eastern coast on March 11. (AP)
Ships washed away by tsunami sit on the land near a port in Kesennuma, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan, on March 13, 2011, after Japan's biggest recorded earthquake hit its eastern coast on March 11. (AP)
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Japan’s Earthquake Recovery Offers Hard Lessons for Türkiye

Ships washed away by tsunami sit on the land near a port in Kesennuma, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan, on March 13, 2011, after Japan's biggest recorded earthquake hit its eastern coast on March 11. (AP)
Ships washed away by tsunami sit on the land near a port in Kesennuma, Miyagi Prefecture, Japan, on March 13, 2011, after Japan's biggest recorded earthquake hit its eastern coast on March 11. (AP)

Mountains of rubble and twisted metal. Death on an unimaginable scale. Grief. Rage. Relief at having survived.

What's left behind after a natural disaster so powerful that it rends the foundations of a society? What lingers over a decade later, even as the rest of the world moves on?

Similarities between the calamity unfolding this week in Türkiye and Syria and the triple disaster that hit northern Japan in 2011 may offer a glimpse of what the region could face in the years ahead. They're linked by the sheer enormity of the collective psychological trauma, of the loss of life and of the material destruction.

The combined toll of Monday’s 7.8 magnitude earthquake rose past 20,000 deaths as authorities announced the discovery of new bodies Thursday. That has already eclipsed the more than 18,400 who died in the disaster in Japan.

That magnitude 9.0 earthquake struck at 2:46 p.m., March 11, 2011. Not long after, cameras along the Japanese coast captured the wall of water that hit the Tohoku region. The quake was one of the biggest on record, and the tsunami it caused washed away cars, homes, office buildings and thousands of people, and caused a meltdown at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

Huge boats were dropped miles away from the ocean in the towering jumbled debris of what had once been cities, cars toppled on their sides like playthings among the ruined streets and obliterated buildings.

Many wondered if the area would ever return to what it was before.

A big lesson from Japan is that a disaster of this size doesn't ever really have a conclusion — a lesson Türkiye itself knows well from a 1999 earthquake in the country's northwest that killed some 18,000 people. Despite speeches about rebuilding, the Tohoku quake has left a deep gash in the national consciousness and the landscapes of people's lives.

Take the death toll.

Deaths directly attributable to the quake in Türkiye will level off in coming weeks, but it's unlikely to be the end.

Japan, for instance, has recognized thousands of other people who died later from stress-related heart attacks, or because of poor living conditions.

And despite hundreds of billions of dollars spent in Japan on reconstruction, some things won't ever come back — including a sense of place.

Before the quake, Tohoku was filled with small cities and villages, surrounded by farms, the ports filled with fleets of fishing boats. It’s one of the wildest, most beautiful coastlines in Japan.

Today, while the wreckage of the quake and tsunami has largely been removed and many roads and buildings rebuilt, there are still large areas of empty space, places where buildings haven’t been erected, farms haven’t been replanted. Businesses have spent years trying to reconstruct decimated customer bases.

Just as workers once did in Japan, an army of rescuers in Türkiye and Syria are digging through obliterated buildings, picking through twisted metal, pulverized concrete and exposed wires for survivors.

What comes next won't be easy.

In Japan, there was initially a palpable pride in the country's ability to endure disaster. People stood calmly in long orderly lines for food and water. They posted notices on message boards in destroyed towns with descriptions of loved ones in the hopes that rescue workers would find them.

After what locals called the Great East Japan Earthquake, the dead in Tohoku were left by piles of rubble, neatly wrapped in taped-up blankets, waiting to be taken away by workers still combing through the detritus for anyone left alive.

The long haul of rebuilding has challenged this resolve. The work has been uneven and, at times, painfully slow, hampered by government incompetence, petty squabbling and bureaucratic wrangling. Nearly half a million people were displaced in Japan. Tens of thousands still haven’t returned home.

The issue has seeped into politics, especially as the debate continues about how to handle the aftermath of catastrophic meltdowns at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Years later, a fear of radiation permeates, and some areas of northern Japan have placed radiation counters in parks and other public areas. Officials and experts are still undecided how to remove the highly radioactive melted fuel debris in the reactor.

There’s already been criticism that the Turkish government has failed to enforce modern construction codes for years, even as it allowed a real estate boom in earthquake-prone areas, and that it has been slow to respond to the disaster.

The years since 2011 have seen another failure, one officials in Japan have acknowledged: an inability to help those traumatized by what they experienced.

Some 2,500 people are unaccounted for across Tohoku, and people are still searching for their loved ones' remains. One man got a diving license and has gone on weekly dives for years trying to find evidence of his wife.

People still occasionally unearth victims’ photo albums, clothes and other belongings.

Perhaps the most telling connection, however, is the sharp empathy shared by those who have survived a cataclysmic disaster, and the gratitude at seeing strangers help ease their suffering.

A group of about 30 rescue workers from Türkiye were in the hard-hit town of Shichigahama for about six months in 2011 for search and rescue operations.

Shichigahama locals have not forgotten. They have now started a donation campaign for Türkiye. One man said this week that he wept as he watched the scenes in Türkiye, remembering his town's ordeal 12 years ago.

"They bravely walked through the debris to help find victims and return their bodies to their families," Mayor Kaoru Terasawa told reporters of the Turkish aid workers who came to Japan. "We are still so thankful to them, and we want to do something to return the favor and show our gratitude."



Iran Holds Military Drills as it Faces Rising Economic Pressures and Trump's Return

A handout picture provided by the Iranian Army media office on October 4, 2023 shows locally-made drones during a military drill at an undisclosed location in Iran. (Photo by Iranian Army office / AFP)
A handout picture provided by the Iranian Army media office on October 4, 2023 shows locally-made drones during a military drill at an undisclosed location in Iran. (Photo by Iranian Army office / AFP)
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Iran Holds Military Drills as it Faces Rising Economic Pressures and Trump's Return

A handout picture provided by the Iranian Army media office on October 4, 2023 shows locally-made drones during a military drill at an undisclosed location in Iran. (Photo by Iranian Army office / AFP)
A handout picture provided by the Iranian Army media office on October 4, 2023 shows locally-made drones during a military drill at an undisclosed location in Iran. (Photo by Iranian Army office / AFP)

Iran is reeling from a cratering economy and stinging military setbacks across its sphere of influence in the Middle East. Its bad times are likely to get worse once President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House with his policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran.

Facing difficulties at home and abroad, Iran last week began an unusual two-month-long military drill. It includes testing air defenses near a key nuclear facility and preparing for exercises in waterways vital to the global oil trade.

The military flexing seems aimed at projecting strength, but doubts about its power are high after the past year's setbacks.

The December overthrow of Syrian President Bashar Assad, who Iran supported for years with money and troops, was a major blow to its self-described “Axis of Resistance” across the region. The “axis” had already been hollowed out by Israel’s punishing offensives last year against two militant groups backed by Iran – Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel also attacked Iran directly on two occasions.

According to The AP, an Iranian Revolutionary Guard general based in Syria offered a blunt assessment this week. “I do not see it as a matter of pride that we lost Syria,” Gen. Behrouz Esbati said, according to an audio recording of a speech he gave that was leaked to the media. “We lost. We badly lost. We blew it.”

At home, Iran’s economy is in tatters.

The US and its allies have maintained stiff sanctions to deter it from developing nuclear weapons — and Iran's recent efforts to get them lifted through diplomacy have fallen flat. Pollution chokes the skies in the capital, Tehran, as power plants burn dirty fuel in their struggle to avoid outages during winter. And families are struggling to make ends meet as the Iranian currency, the rial, falls to record lows against the US dollar.

As these burdens rise, so does the likelihood of political protests, which have ignited nationwide in recent years over women's rights and the weak economy.

How Trump chooses to engage with Iran remains to be seen. But on Tuesday he left open the possibility of the US conducting preemptive airstrikes on nuclear sites where Iran is closer than ever to enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels.

“It’s a military strategy,” Trump told journalists at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida during a wide-ranging news conference. “I’m not answering questions on military strategy.”

Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful, yet officials there increasingly suggest Tehran could pursue an atomic bomb.

Europe's view of Iran hardens. It's not just Trump or Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a longtime foe of Tehran, that paint Iran's nuclear program as a major threat. French President Emmanuel Macron, speaking Monday to French ambassadors in Paris, described Iran as “the main strategic and security challenge for France, the Europeans, the entire region and well beyond.”

“The acceleration of its nuclear program is bringing us very close to the breaking point,” Macron said. “Its ballistic program threatens European soil and our interests."

While Europe had previously been seen as more conciliatory toward Iran, its attitude has hardened. That's likely because of what Macron described as Tehran's “assertive and fully identified military support” of Russia since it's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

France, as well as Germany and the United Kingdom, had been part of Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. Under that deal, Iran limited its enrichment of uranium and drastically reduced its stockpile in exchange for the lifting of crushing, United Nations-backed economic sanctions. Trump unilaterally withdrew America from the accord in 2018, and with those UN sanctions lifted, it provided cover for China's to purchase oil from Iran.

But now France, Germany and the United Kingdom call Tehran's advances in its atomic program a ”nuclear escalation" that needs to be addressed. That raises the possibility of Western nations pushing for what's called a “snapback” of those UN sanctions on Iran, which could be catastrophic for the Iranian economy. That “snapback” power expires in October.

On Wednesday, Iran released a visiting Italian journalist, Cecilia Sala, after detaining her for three weeks — even though she had received the government's approval to report from there.

Sala's arrest came days after Italian authorities arrested an Iranian engineer accused by the US of supplying drone technology used in a January 2024 attack on a US outpost in Jordan that killed three American troops. The engineer remains in Italian custody.

- Iran holds military drills as worries grow

The length of the military drills started by Iran's armed forces and its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard may be unusual, but their intended message to the US and Israel — and to its domestic audience — is not. Iran is trying to show itself as capable of defending against any possible attack.

On Tuesday, Iran held air-defense drills around its underground nuclear enrichment facility in the city of Natanz. It claimed it could intercept a so-called “bunker buster” bomb designed to destroy such sites.

However, the drill did not involve any of its four advanced S-300 Russian air defense systems, which Israel targeted in its strikes on Iran. At least two are believed to have been damaged, and Israeli officials claim all have been taken out.

“Some of the US and Israeli reservations about using force to address Iran’s nuclear program have dissipated,” wrote Kenneth Katzman, a longtime Iran analyst for the US government who is now at the New York-based Soufan Center. “It appears likely that, at the very least, the Trump administration would not assertively dissuade Israel from striking Iranian facilities, even if the United States might decline to join the assault.”

There are other ways Iran could respond. This weekend, naval forces plan exercises in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Iran for years has threatened to close the strait — a narrow lane through which a fifth of global oil supplies are transported — and it has targeted oil tankers and other ships in those waters since 2019.

“Harassment and seizures are likely to remain the main tools of Iranian counteraction,” the private maritime security firm Ambrey warned Thursday.

Its allies may not be much help, though. The tempo of attacks on shipping lanes by Yemen's Houthis, long armed by Iran, have slowed. And Iran has growing reservations about the reliability of Russia.

In the recording of the speech by the Iranian general, Esbati, he alleges that Russia “turned off all radars” in Syria to allow an Israeli airstrike that hit a Guard intelligence center.

Esbati also said Iranian missiles “don't have so much of an impact” and that the US would retaliate against any attack targeting its bases in the region.

“For the time being and in this situation, dragging the region into a military operation does not agree (with the) interest of the resistance,” he says.