OPEC Expects Demand to Reach Pre-pandemic Levels

A 3D printed oil pump jack is seen in front of displayed Opec logo in this illustration picture, April 14, 2020. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
A 3D printed oil pump jack is seen in front of displayed Opec logo in this illustration picture, April 14, 2020. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
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OPEC Expects Demand to Reach Pre-pandemic Levels

A 3D printed oil pump jack is seen in front of displayed Opec logo in this illustration picture, April 14, 2020. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
A 3D printed oil pump jack is seen in front of displayed Opec logo in this illustration picture, April 14, 2020. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said on Sunday that the group expects oil demand to exceed pre-pandemic levels this year, reaching almost 102 million barrels a day.

Demand is projected to further rise to 110 million barrels per day by 2025, he said.

“OPEC remains committed to supporting oil market stability,” Al Ghais said in a speech at the Egypt Petroleum Show.

OPEC’s Al-Ghais said the oil industry had been “plagued by several years of chronic underinvestment.” It needs $500 billion of investment annually until 2045, he said.

He added that investment in energy security is essential in economic activity and the cornerstone of the stability of energy markets.

“It is imperative that all parties involved in the ongoing climate negotiations pause for a moment; look at the big picture,” Ghais said on Sunday at an energy conference in Cairo.

They must “work towards an energy transition that is orderly, inclusive and helps ensure energy security for all”.

OPEC's top official urged countries to invest much more in oil to meet the world’s future energy needs and said climate policies need to be more “balanced and fair”.

His comments came amid a shift among some Western governments and companies regarding fossil fuels.

Prices for oil, natural gas, and coal surged after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last February, pushing energy security to the top of the agenda for many leaders.

US President Joe Biden said during his State of the Union speech last week and said: “We’re going to need oil for at least another decade.”

In Europe, Shell Plc signaled it will stop accelerating spending on renewable energy, while BP Plc slowed its planned reduction of oil and gas output.

“If ESG-driven policies are implemented with an automatic bias against any and all conventional energy projects, the resulting underinvestment will have serious implications for the global economy, for energy affordability, and for energy security,” Amin Nasser, chief executive of Saudi Aramco, said.

“As the energy crisis in Europe has demonstrated, alternatives are not ready to shoulder the heavy burden of global demand. Indeed, the world will continue to depend on oil and gas for the foreseeable future, particularly in sectors such as heavy transport, heavy industry, and power generation," he told the Saudi Capital Market Forum in Riyadh.

“From my perspective, for a less-risky global energy transition, everyone – including capital markets – must take a more realistic view of how the global energy transition will unfold.”



Saudi Arabia Sees Highest Level of Non-oil Private Sector Activity in 4 Months

The 1.5-point increase in the PMI reflects a larger expansion in both output and new orders. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The 1.5-point increase in the PMI reflects a larger expansion in both output and new orders. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
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Saudi Arabia Sees Highest Level of Non-oil Private Sector Activity in 4 Months

The 1.5-point increase in the PMI reflects a larger expansion in both output and new orders. (Asharq Al-Awsat)
The 1.5-point increase in the PMI reflects a larger expansion in both output and new orders. (Asharq Al-Awsat)

Business activity in Saudi Arabia's non-oil sector accelerated to a four-month high in September, driven by strong demand, which led to faster growth in new orders. The Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), adjusted for seasonal factors, rose to 56.3 points from 54.8 in August, marking the highest reading since May and further distancing itself from the 50.0 level that indicates growth.

The 1.5-point increase in the PMI reflects a larger expansion in both output and new orders, alongside challenges in supply. The improvement in business conditions contributed to a significant rise in employment opportunities, although difficulties in finding skilled workers led to a shortage in production capacity.

At the same time, concerns over increasing competition caused a decline in future output expectations. According to the PMI statement, inventories of production inputs remained in good condition, which encouraged some companies to reduce their purchasing efforts.

Growth was strong overall and widespread across all non-oil sectors under study. Dr. Naif Al-Ghaith, Senior Economist at Riyad Bank, said that the rise in Saudi Arabia's PMI points to a notable acceleration in the growth of the non-oil private sector, primarily driven by increased production and new orders, reflecting the sector’s expansionary activity.

Al-Ghaith added that companies responded to the rise in domestic demand, which plays a crucial role in reducing the Kingdom's reliance on oil revenues. The upward trend also indicates improved business confidence, pointing to a healthy environment for increased investment, job creation, and overall economic stability.

He emphasized that this growth in the non-oil sector is particularly important given the current context of reduced oil production and falling global oil prices. With oil revenues under pressure, the strong performance of the non-oil private sector acts as a buffer, helping mitigate the potential impact on the country's economic conditions.

Al-Ghaith continued, noting that diversifying income sources is essential to maintaining growth amid the volatility of oil markets. He explained that increased production levels not only enhance the competitiveness of Saudi companies but also encourage developments aimed at expanding the private sector's participation in the economy.

This shift, he said, provides a more stable foundation for long-term growth, making the economy less susceptible to oil price fluctuations.