Türkiye Earthquake Could Result in Loss of Up to 1% of Country's GDP in 2023

This handout photograph taken and released by Turkish agency DHA (Demiroren News Agency) shows smoke rising from burning containers at the harbor of Iskenderun in Hatay, a day after a 7.8-magnitude earthquake struck the country's southeast, on February 7, 2023. (Photo by Handout / DHA (Demiroren News Agency) / AFP)
This handout photograph taken and released by Turkish agency DHA (Demiroren News Agency) shows smoke rising from burning containers at the harbor of Iskenderun in Hatay, a day after a 7.8-magnitude earthquake struck the country's southeast, on February 7, 2023. (Photo by Handout / DHA (Demiroren News Agency) / AFP)
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Türkiye Earthquake Could Result in Loss of Up to 1% of Country's GDP in 2023

This handout photograph taken and released by Turkish agency DHA (Demiroren News Agency) shows smoke rising from burning containers at the harbor of Iskenderun in Hatay, a day after a 7.8-magnitude earthquake struck the country's southeast, on February 7, 2023. (Photo by Handout / DHA (Demiroren News Agency) / AFP)
This handout photograph taken and released by Turkish agency DHA (Demiroren News Agency) shows smoke rising from burning containers at the harbor of Iskenderun in Hatay, a day after a 7.8-magnitude earthquake struck the country's southeast, on February 7, 2023. (Photo by Handout / DHA (Demiroren News Agency) / AFP)

The potential economic effects of the earthquake in Türkiye could result in a loss of up to 1% of the country's gross domestic product this year, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said in a report published on Thursday.

The bank added this is a "reasonable estimate" due to the expected boost from reconstruction efforts later this year, which will offset the negative impact to infrastructure and supply chains, Reuters said.

"The earthquake affected to a large extent agricultural areas and areas where there is light manufacturing, so spillovers to other sectors are limited," EBRD chief economist Beata Javorcik told Reuters.

Türkiye and neighboring Syria have been rocked by a devastating earthquake on Feb. 6 which has killed more than 41,000 people and left millions in need of humanitarian aid, with many survivors having been left homeless in near-freezing winter temperatures.

Growth for Türkiye, the single biggest recipient of EBRD funds, has been revised down to 3% from 3.5% in 2023, without considering the impact of the earthquake in the estimates.

The bank added that growing external financing requirements and political uncertainty associated with elections in 2023 create significant economic vulnerabilities.

Türkiye’s earthquake has thrown into disarray plans for elections to be held by June, sparking frantic debate within President Tayyip Erdogan's government and the opposition over a possible delay.

"As depreciation of the Turkish lira outpaced inflation since 2015, Türkiye’s exports have been growing fast, benefiting from lower costs expressed in US dollars," the report added.

Türkiye’s lira hit a fresh record low on Wednesday.



Concern in Israel Over US-Iranian Talks in Rome

Trump and Netanyahu at the White House on January 27, 2020 (dpa)
Trump and Netanyahu at the White House on January 27, 2020 (dpa)
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Concern in Israel Over US-Iranian Talks in Rome

Trump and Netanyahu at the White House on January 27, 2020 (dpa)
Trump and Netanyahu at the White House on January 27, 2020 (dpa)

Israel has expressed concern that the Trump administration would relieve sanctions against Tehran as the second round of Iran-US talks wrap up in Rome with an agreement to establish a framework for a potential nuclear deal.

Oman, which is mediating the nuclear negotiations between both countries, said the discussions “aim to reach a fair, lasting, and binding agreement that will guarantee an Iran without nuclear weapons and without sanctions, while preserving its ability to develop peaceful nuclear energy”.

Hours after the end of the second round of US-Iran talks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he remains firmly committed to preventing Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Israel’s Hayom daily newspaper quoted a source close to the White House as saying that US-Iran talks are expected to collapse soon.

It said an Israeli non-governmental source recently spoke with a senior US official who said Israel need not fear the progress being made in talks between US envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian representatives over Iran's nuclear program.

The source said “a breakdown in the Iran-US talks is expected in a few weeks when the Americans present their full list of demands”.

The Israeli source also quoted the US official as saying that, “Trump is not confused. He is conducting the negotiations in his own way and knows exactly what he is doing”.

“We need to let Trump manage the situation as he sees fit. He has a unique method, but he knows what he's doing,” the US official added.

Israel insists that any negotiation with Iran must lead to the complete dismantling of its nuclear program.

Meanwhile, Reuters said Israel has not ruled out an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities in the coming months despite Trump telling Netanyahu that Washington was for now unwilling to support such a move, according to an Israeli official and two other people familiar with the matter.

Over the past months, Israel has proposed to the Trump administration a series of options to attack Iran’s facilities, including some with late spring and summer timelines, the sources said. The plans include a mix of airstrikes and commando operations that vary in severity and could set back Tehran's ability to weaponize its nuclear program by just months or a year or more, the sources said.

The New York Times reported on Wednesday that Trump told Netanyahu in a White House meeting earlier this month that Washington wanted to prioritize diplomatic talks with Tehran and that he was unwilling to support a strike on the country’s nuclear facilities in the short term.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar denied on Saturday, in statements to the British Daily Telegraph, reports regarding Trump’s obstruction of an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear facilities.

“I am a member of the security cabinet, and all the intimate forums, and I don’t remember such a decision,” Sa’ar said. “I don’t think that such a decision was taken. But Israel is committed to the objective of preventing Iran from having nuclear weapons. If that objective can be achieved by a diplomatic path, it is accepted.”

Asked whether he fears that Steve Witkoff, Trump’s negotiator, may be angling for a soft, Obama-style deal with Iran, Sa’ar pointed to a more hawkish recent post by Witkoff on X. “Steve Witkoff tweeted emphasizing that he is looking for the dismantling of the Iranian nuclear project, both enrichment and weaponization,” he said.

Sa’ar added that the current administration is committed to dealing with this issue. “It has put it very high on its agenda. The most important thing is the objective. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.”

The Israeli minister added, “We saw [how Iran] helped Russia during the war on Ukraine, with weapons, drones and intelligence,” warning of “the great danger” of allowing “the most extremist regime in the world to have the most dangerous weapon in the world. Iran’s missiles have the ability to reach Europe today.”

He then warned about a contagion of possessing nuclear weapons in the region. “If Iran will have nuclear weapons, then we will have a nuclear race in the Middle East.. and this will have hard consequences on security, not only in the Middle East.”

Meanwhile, Israel's Channel 14 said a deal between the US and Iran would be better for the Iranians than the one signed under the Obama administration.

“Sanctions are expected to be lifted, billions of dollars injected, while Iran’s arms of terrorism, including Hamas and Houthis, would start operating again. Tehran’s proxies are still active in Iraq, Yemen, and even Africa, suggesting that threat is re-emerging,” the channel said.