World Bank: Gulf Economies Are Becoming More Open

World Bank Vice President for Middle East and North Africa Ferid Belhaj. (WAM)
World Bank Vice President for Middle East and North Africa Ferid Belhaj. (WAM)
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World Bank: Gulf Economies Are Becoming More Open

World Bank Vice President for Middle East and North Africa Ferid Belhaj. (WAM)
World Bank Vice President for Middle East and North Africa Ferid Belhaj. (WAM)

Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries should follow the lead of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the Gulf states in economic reforms, said World Bank Vice President for Middle East and North Africa Ferid Belhaj.

Belhaj explained that Gulf countries worked on deep and structural reforms by opening up their economies to various sectors.

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Belhaj said the Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, provide a model for regional governments in developing the economy by leaving the old economic and development patterns.

He noted that the countries established new economic and development patterns and systems, which yielded positive results.

Morover, economic reforms, the growth of non-oil activities, and efficient spending promoted Saudi economic growth.

The Kingdom's real GDP recorded an 8.7 percent growth in 2022, compared to 2021, which made it the fastest growing in the world, while the UAE is expected to register a 4.1 percent growth during 2023.

Asked about the World Bank's priorities in the MENA region, Belhaj named the three most important priorities, including climate change, which has a clear impact on the region, the issue of public debt, and employment, especially among women.

He explained that many countries, such as Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon, have huge public debts, and women's employment levels are very low.

Belhaj noted that inflation was also among the critical issues, along with water availability, which has become an acute problem in the MENA region.

The official stressed the state's role in reforming the economy, urging the authorities to grant the private sector and youth the opportunity, which constitutes opportunity to overcome the current situation.

Belhaj noted that the region witnessed a high-level growth during 2022, which will gradually drop in the current and upcoming two years but at a different level in all countries.

General growth in the region, which was 5.2 percent in 2022, could decrease in the next two years to 3 or 2.5 percent, said the official, noting that these levels remain predictions that are prone to change depending on the development in the coming months.



Euro Falls as Markets Brace for French Post-election Gridlock

A participant holds a French flag during an election night rally following the first results of the second round of France's legislative election at Place de la Republique in Paris on July 7, 2024. (AFP)
A participant holds a French flag during an election night rally following the first results of the second round of France's legislative election at Place de la Republique in Paris on July 7, 2024. (AFP)
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Euro Falls as Markets Brace for French Post-election Gridlock

A participant holds a French flag during an election night rally following the first results of the second round of France's legislative election at Place de la Republique in Paris on July 7, 2024. (AFP)
A participant holds a French flag during an election night rally following the first results of the second round of France's legislative election at Place de la Republique in Paris on July 7, 2024. (AFP)

The euro slipped on Sunday after projections from France's election pointed to a hung parliament and an unexpectedly strong showing for the left-wing New Popular Front, casting fresh uncertainty over markets and setting the stage for further volatility ahead.

Analysts said markets would likely be relieved that Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) was forecast to come third after last week's first-round victory.

Yet investors also have concerns that the French left’s plans could unwind many of President Emmanuel Macron’s pro-market reforms. And they believe political gridlock could end attempts to rein in France's debt, which stood at 110.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023.

The euro fell 0.2% to $1.081 as the week’s trading got underway. It had climbed last week as opinion polls suggested a hung parliament was likely, assuaging fears of a far-right victory, after dropping sharply - along with stocks and bonds - when Macron called the elections in early June.

"It looks like the anti-far right parties really got a lot of support," said Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex Europe.

"But fundamentally from a market perspective, there’s no difference in terms of the outcome. There’s really going to be a vacuum when it comes to France’s legislative ability."

Harvey added: "The bond market is going to be the real place to look at. There might be a bit of a gap lower in French bonds (prices)."

Trading in French bonds and stocks will begin on Monday morning in Europe.

The leftist alliance, which gathers the hard left, the Socialists and Greens, was forecast to win between 172 and 215 seats out of 577, according to pollsters' projections based on early results from a sample of polling stations.

Macron’s centrist alliance was projected to win 150-180 seats, with the RN seen getting 115 to 155 seats.

Analysts said a period of volatility and uncertainty was expected to continue as investors now assess what form the parliament will take, and how many, if any, of its policies the leftist alliance will be able to implement.

The New Popular Front alliance says its first moves would include a 10% civil servant pay hike, providing free school lunches, supplies and transport while raising housing subsidies by 10%.

"The economic program of the left is in many ways much more problematic than that of the right, and while the left will not be able to govern on their own, the outlook for French public finances deteriorates further with these results," said Nordea chief market analyst Jan von Gerich.

JITTERY MARKETS

Markets tumbled after Macron gambled in June by calling a parliamentary election following a trouncing at the hands of the RN in European Parliament elections - as investors worried an RN victory could install a prime minister intent on a high-spending, France-first agenda that would exacerbate a large debt pile and shake relations with Europe.

The risk premium investors demand to hold the country's debt soared to its highest level since the euro zone crisis in 2012. French stocks, led by banks, dropped as investors worried about their holdings of government debt, new regulation and economic uncertainty in the euro area's second biggest economy.

Yet equities, bonds and the euro all recovered somewhat last week as polls showed a hung parliament was the most likely outcome as the left wing and centrist parties struck deals to give anti-RN candidates a better chance.

The exact make-up of the next parliament remains uncertain, as does the next prime minister. Gabriel Attal said he would hand his resignation to Macron on Monday.

"It’s going to be very hard to actually go ahead and pass any policy and bring about any progressive reforms because each party’s vote is split and no one has an absolute majority," said Aneeka Gupta, director of macroeconomic research at WisdomTree.

Yet she added: "I think the markets will be happy we’re avoiding this extreme situation with the far right."